F. Corbi

Seismic variability of subduction thrust faults: Insights from laboratory models

[1]xa0Laboratory models are realized to investigate the role of interface roughness, driving rate, and pressure on friction dynamics. The setup consists of a gelatin block driven at constant velocity over sand paper. The interface roughness is quantified in terms of amplitude and wavelength of protrusions, jointly expressed by a reference roughness parameter obtained by their product. Frictional behavior shows a systematic dependence on system parameters. Both stick slip and stable sliding occur, depending on driving rate and interface roughness. Stress drop and frequency of slip episodes vary directly and inversely, respectively, with the reference roughness parameter, reflecting the fundamental role for the amplitude of protrusions. An increase in pressure tends to favor stick slip. Static friction is a steeply decreasing function of the reference roughness parameter. The velocity strengthening/weakening parameter in the state- and rate-dependent dynamic friction law becomes negative for specific values of the reference roughness parameter which are intermediate with respect to the explored range. Despite the simplifications of the adopted setup, which does not address the problem of off-fault fracturing, a comparison of the experimental results with the depth distribution of seismic energy release along subduction thrust faults leads to the hypothesis that their behavior is primarily controlled by the depth- and time-dependent distribution of protrusions. A rough subduction fault at shallow depths, unable to produce significant seismicity because of low lithostatic pressure, evolves into a moderately rough, velocity-weakening fault at intermediate depths. The magnitude of events in this range is calibrated by the interplay between surface roughness and subduction rate. At larger depths, the roughness further decreases and stable sliding becomes gradually more predominant. Thus, although interplate seismicity is ultimately controlled by tectonic parameters (velocity of the plates/trench and the thermal regime), the direct control is exercised by the resulting frictional properties of the plate interface.

The seismic cycle at subduction thrusts: 1. Insights from laboratory models

[1] Subduction megathrust earthquakes occur at the interface between the subducting and overriding plates. These hazardous phenomena are only partially understood because of the absence of direct observations, the restriction of the instrumental seismic record to the past century, and the limited resolution/completeness of historical to geological archives. To overcome these restrictions, modeling has become a key-tool to study megathrust earthquakes. We present a novel model to investigate the seismic cycle at subduction thrusts using complementary analog (paper 1) and numerical (paper 2) approaches. Here we introduce a simple scaled gelatin-on-sandpaper setup including realistic tectonic loading, spontaneous rupture nucleation, and viscoelastic response of the lithosphere. Particle image velocimetry allows to derive model deformation and earthquake source parameters. Analog earthquakes are characterized by “quasi-periodic” recurrence. Consistent with elastic theory, the interseismic stage shows rearward motion, subsidence in the outer wedge and uplift of the “coastal area” as a response of locked plate interface at shallow depth. The coseismic stage exhibits order of magnitude higher velocities and reversal of the interseismic deformation pattern in the seaward direction, subsidence of the coastal area, and uplift in the outer wedge. Like natural earthquakes, analog earthquakes generally nucleate in the deeper portion of the rupture area and preferentially propagate upward in a crack-like fashion. Scaled rupture width-slip proportionality and seismic moment-duration scaling verifies dynamic similarities with earthquakes. Experimental repeatability is statistically verified. Comparing analog results with natural observations, we conclude that this technique is suitable for investigating the parameter space influencing the subduction interplate seismic cycle.

The seismic cycle at subduction thrusts: 2. Dynamic implications of geodynamic simulations validated with laboratory models

[1]xa0The physics governing the seismic cycle at seismically active subduction zones remains poorly understood due to restricted direct observations in time and space. To investigate subduction zone dynamics and associated interplate seismicity, we validate a continuum, visco-elasto-plastic numerical model with a new laboratory approach (Paper 1). The analogous laboratory setup includes a visco-elastic gelatin wedge underthrusted by a rigid plate with defined velocity-weakening and -strengthening regions. Our geodynamic simulation approach includes velocity-weakening friction to spontaneously generate a series of fast frictional instabilities that correspond to analog earthquakes. A match between numerical and laboratory source parameters is obtained when velocity-strengthening is applied in the aseismic regions to stabilize the rupture. Spontaneous evolution of absolute stresses leads to nucleation by coalescence of neighboring patches, mainly occurring at evolving asperities near the seismogenic zone limits. Consequently, a crack-, or occasionally even pulse-like, rupture propagates toward the opposite side of the seismogenic zone by increasing stresses ahead of its rupture front, until it arrests on a barrier. The resulting surface displacements qualitatively agree with geodetic observations and show landward and, from near the downdip limit, upward interseismic motions. These are rebound and reversed coseismically. This slip increases adjacent stresses, which are relaxed postseismically by afterslip and thereby produce persistent seaward motions. The wide range of observed physical phenomena, including back-propagation and repeated slip, and the agreement with laboratory results demonstrate that visco-elasto-plastic geodynamic models with rate-dependent friction form a new tool that can greatly contribute to our understanding of the seismic cycle at subduction zones.

Controls of seismogenic zone width and subduction velocity on interplate seismicity: Insights from analog and numerical models

Correlations between geodynamic parameters and interplate seismicity characteristics in subduction zones are generally weak due to the short instrumental record and multiparameter influences. To investigate the role of subduction velocity Vs and the width of the seismogenic zone W on maximum magnitude Mmax, seismic rate τ, characteristic recurrence rate τc, and moment release rate MRR, we use synthetic data sets from simplified analog and numerical models to gain insight into natural subduction zones seismicity. Our models suggest that Mmax increases with W and is unaffected by Vs, τ increases with Vs, τc increases with Vs/W, and MRR increases with Vs × W. In nature, only the positive correlation between Vs and τ is significant. Random sampling of our time series suggest that the positive correlation between Vs and τ can be observed with short observation time windows. Other correlations, including Mmax versus W, become clear only for time window lengths longer than 1/τc

Propagation and arrest of dikes under topography: Models applied to the 2014 Bardarbunga (Iceland) rifting event

Dikes along rift zones propagate laterally downslope for tens of kilometers, often becoming arrested before topographic reliefs. We use analogue and numerical models to test the conditions controlling the lateral propagation and arrest of dikes, exploring the presence of a slope in connection with buoyancy and rigidity layering. A gentle downslope assists lateral propagation when combined with an effective barrier to magma ascent, e.g., gelatin stiffness contrasts, while antibuoyancy alone may be insufficient to prevent upward propagation. We also observe that experimental dikes become arrested when reaching a plain before opposite reliefs. Our numerical models show that below the plain the stress field induced by topography hinders further dike propagation. We suggest that lateral dike propagation requires an efficient barrier (rigidity) to upward propagation, assisting antibuoyancy, and a lateral pressure gradient perpendicular to the least compressive stress axis, while dike arrest may be induced by external reliefs.

Control of asperities size and spacing on seismic behavior of subduction megathrusts

The majority of the largest subduction megathrust earthquakes share the common characteristic of rupturing more than one asperity along strike of the margin. Understanding the factors that control coseismic failure of multiple asperities, and thus maximum magnitude, is central for seismic hazard assessment. To investigate the role of asperities size and spacing on maximum magnitude, seismicity rate, and percentage of synchronized ruptures, we use analog models simulating along-strike rupture behavior of megathrust earthquakes. We found negative correlations between the barrier-to-asperity length ratio Db/Da and maximum magnitude and seismicity rate. Db/Da also controls the process of asperities synchronization along the megathrust. A permanent barrier behavior is observed for Db/Da > 0.5. Comparing our experimental results to the Nankai Trough historical seismicity, we propose that the distribution of megathrust frictional heterogeneities likely explains the diversity of earthquakes which occurred there.