F. Gerald R. Fowkes

Comparison of global estimates of prevalence and risk factors for peripheral artery disease in 2000 and 2010: a systematic review and analysis

BACKGROUND Lower extremity peripheral artery disease is the third leading cause of atherosclerotic cardiovascular morbidity, following coronary artery disease and stroke. This study provides the first comparison of the prevalence of peripheral artery disease between high-income countries (HIC) and low-income or middle-income countries (LMIC), establishes the primary risk factors for peripheral artery disease in these settings, and estimates the number of people living with peripheral artery disease regionally and globally. METHODS We did a systematic review of the literature on the prevalence of peripheral artery disease in which we searched for community-based studies since 1997 that defined peripheral artery disease as an ankle brachial index (ABI) lower than or equal to 0·90. We used epidemiological modelling to define age-specific and sex-specific prevalence rates in HIC and in LMIC and combined them with UN population numbers for 2000 and 2010 to estimate the global prevalence of peripheral artery disease. Within a subset of studies, we did meta-analyses of odds ratios (ORs) associated with 15 putative risk factors for peripheral artery disease to estimate their effect size in HIC and LMIC. We then used the risk factors to predict peripheral artery disease numbers in eight WHO regions (three HIC and five LMIC). FINDINGS 34 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria, 22 from HIC and 12 from LMIC, including 112,027 participants, of which 9347 had peripheral artery disease. Sex-specific prevalence rates increased with age and were broadly similar in HIC and LMIC and in men and women. The prevalence in HIC at age 45-49 years was 5·28% (95% CI 3·38-8·17%) in women and 5·41% (3·41-8·49%) in men, and at age 85-89 years, it was 18·38% (11·16-28·76%) in women and 18·83% (12·03-28·25%) in men. Prevalence in men was lower in LMIC than in HIC (2·89% [2·04-4·07%] at 45-49 years and 14·94% [9·58-22·56%] at 85-89 years). In LMIC, rates were higher in women than in men, especially at younger ages (6·31% [4·86-8·15%] of women aged 45-49 years). Smoking was an important risk factor in both HIC and LMIC, with meta-OR for current smoking of 2·72 (95% CI 2·39-3·09) in HIC and 1·42 (1·25-1·62) in LMIC, followed by diabetes (1·88 [1·66-2·14] vs 1·47 [1·29-1·68]), hypertension (1·55 [1·42-1·71] vs 1·36 [1·24-1·50]), and hypercholesterolaemia (1·19 [1·07-1·33] vs 1·14 [1·03-1·25]). Globally, 202 million people were living with peripheral artery disease in 2010, 69·7% of them in LMIC, including 54·8 million in southeast Asia and 45·9 million in the western Pacific Region. During the preceding decade the number of individuals with peripheral artery disease increased by 28·7% in LMIC and 13·1% in HIC. INTERPRETATION In the 21st century, peripheral artery disease has become a global problem. Governments, non-governmental organisations, and the private sector in LMIC need to address the social and economic consequences, and assess the best strategies for optimum treatment and prevention of this disease. FUNDING Peripheral Arterial Disease Research Coalition (Europe).

Short-term effects of daily aspirin on cancer incidence, mortality, and non-vascular death: Analysis of the time course of risks and benefits in 51 randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND Daily aspirin reduces the long-term risk of death due to cancer. However, the short-term effect is less certain, especially in women, effects on cancer incidence are largely unknown, and the time course of risk and benefit in primary prevention is unclear. We studied cancer deaths in all trials of daily aspirin versus control and the time course of effects of low-dose aspirin on cancer incidence and other outcomes in trials in primary prevention. METHODS We studied individual patient data from randomised trials of daily aspirin versus no aspirin in prevention of vascular events. Death due to cancer, all non-vascular death, vascular death, and all deaths were assessed in all eligible trials. In trials of low-dose aspirin in primary prevention, we also established the time course of effects on incident cancer, major vascular events, and major extracranial bleeds, with stratification by age, sex, and smoking status. RESULTS Allocation to aspirin reduced cancer deaths (562 vs 664 deaths; odds ratio [OR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·76-0·96, p=0·008; 34 trials, 69,224 participants), particularly from 5 years onwards (92 vs 145; OR 0·63, 95% CI 0·49-0·82, p=0·0005), resulting in fewer non-vascular deaths overall (1021 vs 1173; OR 0·88, 95% CI 0·78-0·96, p=0·003; 51 trials, 77,549 participants). In trials in primary prevention, the reduction in non-vascular deaths accounted for 87 (91%) of 96 deaths prevented. In six trials of daily low-dose aspirin in primary prevention (35,535 participants), aspirin reduced cancer incidence from 3 years onwards (324 vs 421 cases; OR 0·76, 95% CI 0·66-0·88, p=0·0003) in women (132 vs 176; OR 0·75, 95% CI 0·59-0·94, p=0·01) and in men (192 vs 245; OR 0·77, 95% CI 0·63-0·93, p=0·008). The reduced risk of major vascular events on aspirin was initially offset by an increased risk of major bleeding, but effects on both outcomes diminished with increasing follow-up, leaving only the reduced risk of cancer (absolute reduction 3·13 [95% CI 1·44-4·82] per 1000 patients per year) from 3 years onwards. Case-fatality from major extracranial bleeds was also lower on aspirin than on control (8/203 vs 15/132; OR 0·32, 95% CI 0·12-0·83, p=0·009). INTERPRETATION Alongside the previously reported reduction by aspirin of the long-term risk of cancer death, the short-term reductions in cancer incidence and mortality and the decrease in risk of major extracranial bleeds with extended use, and their low case-fatality, add to the case for daily aspirin in prevention of cancer. FUNDING None.

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Expansion Risk Factors and Time Intervals for Surveillance

Background—Intervention to reduce abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) expansion and optimization of screening intervals would improve current surveillance programs. The aim of this study was to characterize AAA growth in a national cohort of patients with AAA both overall and by cardiovascular risk factors. Methods and Results—In this study, 1743 patients were monitored for changes in AAA diameter by ultrasonography over a mean follow-up of 1.9 years. Mean initial AAA diameter and growth rate were 43 mm (range 28 to 85 mm) and 2.6 mm/year (95% range, −1.0 to 6.1 mm/year), respectively. Baseline diameter was strongly associated with growth, suggesting that AAA growth accelerates as the aneurysm enlarges. AAA growth rate was lower in those with low ankle/brachial pressure index and diabetes but higher for current smokers (all P <0.001). No other factor (including lipids and blood pressure) was associated with AAA growth. Intervals of 36, 24, 12, and 3 months for aneurysms of 35, 40, 45, and 50 mm, respectively, would restrict the probability of breaching the 55-mm limit at rescreening to below 1%. Conclusions—Annual, or less frequent, surveillance intervals are safe for all AAAs ≤45 mm in diameter. Smoking increases AAA growth, but atherosclerosis plays a minor role.

C-Reactive Protein, Interleukin-6, and Soluble Adhesion Molecules as Predictors of Progressive Peripheral Atherosclerosis in the General Population Edinburgh Artery Study

Background—The relationship between levels of circulating inflammatory markers and risk of progressive atherosclerosis is relatively undetermined. We therefore studied inflammatory markers as predictors of peripheral atherosclerotic progression, measured by the ankle-brachial index (ABI) at 3 consecutive time points over 12 years. Methods and Results—The Edinburgh Artery Study is a population cohort study of 1592 men and women aged 55 to 74 years. C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), vascular adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1), and E-selectin were measured at baseline. Valid ABI measurements were obtained on 1582, 1081, and 813 participants at baseline and 5-year and 12-year follow-up examinations, respectively. At baseline, a significant trend was found between higher plasma levels of CRP (P≤0.05) and increasing severity of peripheral arterial disease (PAD), after adjustment for baseline cardiovascular risk factors. IL-6 at baseline (P≤0.001) was associated with progressive atherosclerosis at 5 years (ABI change from baseline), and CRP (P≤0.01), IL-6 (P≤0.001), and ICAM-1 (P≤0.01) were associated with changes at 12 years, independently of baseline ABI, cardiovascular risk factors, and baseline cardiovascular disease. Only IL-6 independently predicted ABI change at 5 years (P≤0.01) and 12 years (P≤0.05) in analyses of all inflammatory markers simultaneously and adjusted for baseline ABI, cardiovascular risk factors, and cardiovascular disease at baseline. Conclusions—These findings suggest that CRP, IL-6, and ICAM-1 are molecular markers associated with atherosclerosis and its progression. IL-6 showed more consistent results and stronger independent predictive value than other inflammatory markers.

Blood Viscosity and Elevated Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Men and Women The Edinburgh Artery Study

BACKGROUND Several hemostatic and rheological factors have been associated with incident cardiovascular events. However, there have been no reports on the relationship of rheological factors with early atherosclerosis and very few on hemostatic factors. We therefore studied the relationship between these factors and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT). METHODS AND RESULTS The Edinburgh Artery Study measured fibrinogen, tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), fibrin D-dimer, von Willebrand factor (vWF), blood and plasma viscosities, and hematocrit as part of its baseline examination during 1988-1989. At the 5-year follow-up, valid measurements of IMT had been recorded in 1106 men and women 60 to 80 years old. In men, blood viscosity (P< or =.001) and its major determinants, plasma viscosity, fibrinogen (both P< or =.01), and hematocrit (P< or =.05), were all linearly related to IMT. Furthermore, blood viscosity, fibrinogen (both P< or =.01), and plasma viscosity (P< or =.05) remained significantly associated on multivariate analysis. Correcting blood viscosity to a standard hematocrit of 45% had little effect on its association. In men, there was a significantly increased risk of having an IMT above versus below the upper quartile of its distribution (1.05 mm) for SD increases in blood viscosity (P< or =.01), fibrinogen, corrected blood viscosity, and plasma viscosity (all P< or =.05). With the exception of plasma viscosity, these risks were unaffected by adjustment for other common cardiovascular risk factors. No significant associations were found between any of the hemorheological factors and IMT in women or for tPA, fibrin D-dimer, or vWF in either sex. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that in men, blood viscosity and its major determinants are associated not only with incident cardiovascular events but also with the early stages of atherosclerosis. This may be one explanation for the link between rheological factors and events.

Relative Value of Inflammatory, Hemostatic, and Rheological Factors for Incident Myocardial Infarction and Stroke The Edinburgh Artery Study

Background— The aim of our present study was to compare the association of a wide range of 17 biomarkers of inflammation, hemostasis, and blood rheology with incident heart disease and stroke after accounting for an indicator of subclinical atherosclerotic disease and traditional risk factors and also to determine their incremental predictive ability. Methods and Results— We used data from the Edinburgh Artery Study, a population cohort study started in 1987 that comprised 1592 men and women aged 55 to 74 years. Subjects were followed for a mean of 17 years, and 416 of them suffered at least 1 cardiovascular event. In analyses adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and history of cardiovascular disease (CVD): C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, fibrinogen, fibrin D-dimer, tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA), leukocyte elastase, and lipoprotein(a) (all P<0.01), as well as von Willebrand factor and plasma viscosity (both P<0.05), had significant hazard ratios for incident CVD. Further adjustment for a measure of subclinical atherosclerosis (ankle brachial index) had little impact on these associations. The hazard ratios (95% CI) for incident CVD between top and bottom tertiles in the latter analysis were 1.78 (1.30 to 2.45) for C-reactive protein, 1.85 (1.33 to 2.58) for interleukin-6, and 1.76 (1.35 to 2.31) for fibrinogen. Single biomarkers provided little additional discrimination of incident CVD to that obtained from cardiovascular risk factors and the ankle brachial index. An incremental score of multiple markers [interleukin-6, t-PA, intercellular adhesion molecule 1, and lipoprotein(a)] provided some added discrimination. Conclusions— Several “novel” risk factors predicted CVD after adjustments for conventional risk factors and also for a measure of asymptomatic disease. However, their incremental predictive ability was modest and their clinical utility remains uncertain.

Effect modification by population dietary folate on the association between MTHFR genotype, homocysteine, and stroke risk: a meta-analysis of genetic studies and randomised trials

Summary Background The MTHFR 677C→T polymorphism has been associated with raised homocysteine concentration and increased risk of stroke. A previous overview showed that the effects were greatest in regions with low dietary folate consumption, but differentiation between the effect of folate and small-study bias was difficult. A meta-analysis of randomised trials of homocysteine-lowering interventions showed no reduction in coronary heart disease events or stroke, but the trials were generally set in populations with high folate consumption. We aimed to reduce the effect of small-study bias and investigate whether folate status modifies the association between MTHFR 677C→T and stroke in a genetic analysis and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Methods We established a collaboration of genetic studies consisting of 237 datasets including 59 995 individuals with data for homocysteine and 20 885 stroke events. We compared the genetic findings with a meta-analysis of 13 randomised trials of homocysteine-lowering treatments and stroke risk (45 549 individuals, 2314 stroke events, 269 transient ischaemic attacks). Findings The effect of the MTHFR 677C→T variant on homocysteine concentration was larger in low folate regions (Asia; difference between individuals with TT versus CC genotype, 3·12 μmol/L, 95% CI 2·23 to 4·01) than in areas with folate fortification (America, Australia, and New Zealand, high; 0·13 μmol/L, −0·85 to 1·11). The odds ratio (OR) for stroke was also higher in Asia (1·68, 95% CI 1·44 to 1·97) than in America, Australia, and New Zealand, high (1·03, 0·84 to 1·25). Most randomised trials took place in regions with high or increasing population folate concentrations. The summary relative risk (RR) of stroke in trials of homocysteine-lowering interventions (0·94, 95% CI 0·85 to 1·04) was similar to that predicted for the same extent of homocysteine reduction in large genetic studies in populations with similar folate status (predicted RR 1·00, 95% CI 0·90 to 1·11). Although the predicted effect of homocysteine reduction from large genetic studies in low folate regions (Asia) was larger (RR 0·78, 95% CI 0·68 to 0·90), no trial has evaluated the effect of lowering of homocysteine on stroke risk exclusively in a low folate region. Interpretation In regions with increasing levels or established policies of population folate supplementation, evidence from genetic studies and randomised trials is concordant in suggesting an absence of benefit from lowering of homocysteine for prevention of stroke. Further large-scale genetic studies of the association between MTHFR 677C→T and stroke in low folate settings are needed to distinguish effect modification by folate from small-study bias. If future randomised trials of homocysteine-lowering interventions for stroke prevention are undertaken, they should take place in regions with low folate consumption. Funding Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

Atherosclerotic vascular disease conference : Writing group I: Epidemiology

Our knowledge of the epidemiology of coronary heart disease (CHD) is extensive. Although CHD mortality peaked in the 1960s and then declined dramatically,1,2 CHD remains the leading cause of death in both men and women in the United States. The aging of the United States population contributes to the high prevalence of CHD. By the year 2020, it is estimated that ischemic heart disease will be the number one cause of disability and death worldwide.3 Data on noncoronary atherosclerotic vascular disease (AVD) are far less available than data on CHD. Studies of the atherosclerotic process underlying ischemic stroke are hampered by the differing vascular mechanisms that lead to stroke, including large-artery atherosclerosis with occlusion and distal embolization and small penetrating arterial disease with lacunar infarction. Also, there are a considerable number of ischemic stroke events for which the mechanism is unclear and the infarct is of undetermined cause. What is known about the epidemiology of atherosclerotic disease in different territories tends to come from snapshots based on several prevalence studies, which often reflect a medical milieu very different from the one today in which many preventive interventions, including lipid-lowering therapy, hypertension control, and antiplatelet therapies, are more widely used. Epidemiologic, pathophysiological, and therapeutic studies of noncoronary atherosclerotic disease have tended to focus on individual territories rather than on the vascular tree in its totality. Although it is still important to understand critical differences among the different territories, it is also important that basic, epidemiologic, and clinical investigators recognize the links among vascular territories (namely, that atherosclerosis is a systemic disease) and that collection of current prevalence and incidence data for both clinical and subclinical vascular disease allows for robust comparisons and improved understanding of both the similarities and differences in atherosclerosis in different vascular territories. The barriers that …

Cognitive decline and markers of inflammation and hemostasis: The Edinburgh Artery Study

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether circulating markers of activated inflammation and hemostasis are associated with cognitive decline in older people.

Lifestyle factors and the risk of varicose veins: Edinburgh Vein Study.

The objective of this study was to determine the inter-relationships between a range of lifestyle factors and risk of varicose veins to identify which factors may be implicated in the etiology. An age-stratified random sample of 1566 subjects (699 men and 867 women) aged 18 to 64 years was selected from 12 general practices throughout Edinburgh. A detailed self-administered questionnaire was completed, and a comprehensive physical examination determined the presence and severity of varicose veins. The slightly higher age-adjusted prevalence of varicose veins in men than in women (39.7% versus 32.2%) was not explained by adjustment for an extensive range of lifestyle risk factors (male odds ratio [OR] 2.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.51-2.96). In both sexes, increasing height showed a significant relationship with varicose veins (male OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.18-1.93 and female OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.01-1.58). Among women, body mass index was associated with an increased risk of varicose veins (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.02-1.54). The current study casts doubt as to whether varicose veins occur predominantly in women. In addition, no consistent relationship with any lifestyle factor was shown. Self-reported evidence suggested a familial susceptibility, thereby warranting future genetic studies.