Fabio Levi

The European mesothelioma epidemic.

SummaryProjections for the period 1995–2029 suggest that the number of men dying from mesothelioma in Western Europe each year will almost double over the next 20 years, from 5000 in 1998 to about 9000 around 2018, and then decline, with a total of about a quarter of a million deaths over the next 35 years. The highest risk will be suffered by men born around 1945–50, of whom about 1 in 150 will die of mesothelioma. Asbestos use in Western Europe remained high until 1980, and substantial quantities are still used in several European countries. These projections are based on the fit of a simple age and birth cohort model to male pleural cancer mortality from 1970 to 1989 for six countries (Britain, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and Switzerland) which together account for three-quarters of the population of Western Europe. The model was tested by comparing observed and predicted numbers of deaths for the period 1990–94. The ratio of mesothelioma to recorded pleural cancer mortality has been 1.6:1 in Britain but was assumed to be 1:1 in other countries.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2014

BACKGROUND From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes. PATIENTS AND METHODS Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS In the EU in 2014, 1,323,600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742,500 men and 581,100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100,000 men and 84.7/100,000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25-49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises. CONCLUSIONS Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250,000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes.

The antiestrogenic effect of cigarette smoking in women

Epidemiologic results indicate that women who smoke cigarettes are relatively estrogen-deficient. Smokers have an early natural menopause, a lowered risk of cancer of the endometrium, and an increased risk of some osteoporotic fractures. Moreover, women who smoke may have a reduced risk of uterine fibroids, endometriosis, hyperemesis gravidarum, and benign breast disease. Several possible mechanisms for these effects have been identified. Smoking does not appear to be clearly related to estradiol levels, at least in postmenopausal women, although levels of adrenal androgens are increased. Moreover, smoking appears to alter the metabolism of estradiol, leading to enhanced formation of the inactive catechol estrogens.

Interaction between tobacco and alcohol use and the risk of head and neck cancer: Pooled analysis in the international head and neck cancer Epidemiology consortium

Background: The magnitude of risk conferred by the interaction between tobacco and alcohol use on the risk of head and neck cancers is not clear because studies have used various methods to quantify the excess head and neck cancer burden. Methods: We analyzed individual-level pooled data from 17 European and American case-control studies (11,221 cases and 16,168 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We estimated the multiplicative interaction parameter (ψ) and population attributable risks (PAR). Results: A greater than multiplicative joint effect between ever tobacco and alcohol use was observed for head and neck cancer risk (ψ = 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.04). The PAR for tobacco or alcohol was 72% (95% confidence interval, 61-79%) for head and neck cancer, of which 4% was due to alcohol alone, 33% was due to tobacco alone, and 35% was due to tobacco and alcohol combined. The total PAR differed by subsite (64% for oral cavity cancer, 72% for pharyngeal cancer, 89% for laryngeal cancer), by sex (74% for men, 57% for women), by age (33% for cases <45 years, 73% for cases >60 years), and by region (84% in Europe, 51% in North America, 83% in Latin America). Conclusions: Our results confirm that the joint effect between tobacco and alcohol use is greater than multiplicative on head and neck cancer risk. However, a substantial proportion of head and neck cancers cannot be attributed to tobacco or alcohol use, particularly for oral cavity cancer and for head and neck cancer among women and among young-onset cases. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(2):541–50)

Recent patterns in gastric cancer: A global overview

Until the mid‐1990s, gastric cancer has been the first cause of cancer death worldwide, although rates had been declining for several decades and gastric cancer has become a relatively rare cancer in North America and in most Northern and Western Europe, but not in Eastern Europe, Russia and selected areas of Central and South America or East Asia. We analyzed gastric cancer mortality in Europe and other areas of the world from 1980 to 2005 using joinpoint regression analysis, and provided updated site‐specific incidence rates from 51 selected registries. Over the last decade, the annual percent change (APC) in mortality rate was around −3, −4% for the major European countries. The APC were similar for the Republic of Korea (APC = −4.3%), Australia (−3.7%), the USA (−3.6%), Japan (−3.5%), Ukraine (−3%) and the Russian Federation (−2.8%). In Latin America, the decline was less marked, but constant with APC around −1.6% in Chile and Brazil, −2.3% in Argentina and Mexico and −2.6% in Colombia. Cancers in the fundus and pylorus are more common in high incidence and mortality areas and have been declining more than cardia gastric cancer. Steady downward trends persist in gastric cancer mortality worldwide even in middle aged population, and hence further appreciable declines are likely in the near future.

Epidemiology and prevention of oral cancer

Descriptive epidemiology of oral and pharyngeal cancer over the last four decades is reviewed, with specific focus on Europe. Substantial rises in mortality rates have been observed for younger males, mostly in eastern Europe. The independent role of alcohol and tobacco and their interaction on oral carcinogenesis is discussed, since these factors account for about three quarters of oral cancers in Europe. The influence of dietary factors, and in particular of a diet poor in fresh fruit and vegetables on oral carcinogenesis, is also discussed, since diet may account for 10-15% of oral cancer cases in Europe. Finally, among other carcinogens, the possibility of human papillomavirus involvement in the aetiology of cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx is overviewed. Implications for prevention are discussed.

Trends in mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Europe and other areas of the world

Objective: To analyse trends in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) over the period 1965 to 1998 in the European Union, other European countries, the USA, and Japan. Methods and results: Data were derived from the World Health Organization database. In the European Union, CHD mortality in men rose from 146/100 000 in 1965–9 to 163/100 000 in 1975–9 and declined thereafter to 99/100 000 in 1995–8 (−39%). In women, the fall was from 70 to 45/100 000 (−36%). A > 55% decline in CVD was registered in both sexes. In eastern Europe, mortality from both CHD and CVD rose up to the early 1990s but has declined over the past few years in Poland and the Czech Republic. In the Russian Federation during 1995–8, mortality rates from CHD reached 330/100 000 men and 154/100 000 women and mortality rates from CVD were 203/100 000 men and 150/100 000 women—that is, they were among the highest rates worldwide. In the USA and Japan, long term trends were favourable for both CHD and CVD. Conclusions: Trends in mortality from CHD and CVD were favourable in several developed areas of the world, but there were major geographical differences. In a few eastern European countries, mortality from CHD and CVD remains exceedingly high.

A pooled analysis of case–control studies of thyroid cancer: cigarette smoking and consumption of alcohol, coffee, and tea

Objective: To analyze the role of smoking, alcohol, coffee and tea in relation to thyroid cancer, we conducted a pooled analysis of 14 case–control studies conducted in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Methods: The sample consisted of 2725 thyroid cancer cases (2247 females, 478 males) and 4776 controls (3699 females, 1077 males). Conditional logistic regression with stratification on study, age at diagnosis, and gender was used to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results: Thyroid cancer risk was reduced in persons who had ever smoked. The relationship was more pronounced in current smokers (OR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.6–0.7) than former smokers (OR = 0.9, 95% CI = 0.8–1.1). There were significant trends of reduced risk with greater duration and frequency of smoking. For consumption of wine and beer, there was a significant trend of decreasing thyroid cancer risk (p = 0.02) that was not maintained after adjustment for current smoking (p = 0.12). Thyroid cancer risk was not associated with consumption of coffee or tea. These findings were consistent in both gender-specific and histology-specific (papillary and follicular) analyses. Conclusions: Pooled analyses of these geographically diverse case–control data indicate a reduced thyroid cancer risk associated with current smoking. A reduced risk associated with alcohol was eliminated after adjustment for smoking, and caffeinated beverages did not alter thyroid cancer risk.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Trends in mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma in Europe, 1980‐2004

Upward trends in mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently reported in the United States and Japan. Comprehensive analyses of most recent data for European countries are not available. Age‐standardized (world standard) HCC rates per 100,000 (at all ages, at age 20‐44, and age 45‐59 years) were computed for 23 European countries over the period 1980‐2004 using data from the World Health Organization. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changes in trends, and annual percent change were computed. Male overall mortality from HCC increased in Austria, Germany, Switzerland, and other western countries, while it significantly decreased over recent years in countries such as France and Italy, which had large upward trends until the mid‐1990s. In the early 2000s, among countries allowing distinction between HCC and other liver cancers, the highest HCC rates in men were in France (6.8/100,000), Italy (6.7), and Switzerland (5.9), whereas the lowest ones were in Norway (1.0), Ireland (0.8), and Sweden (0.7). In women, a slight increase in overall HCC mortality was observed in Spain and Switzerland, while mortality decreased in several other European countries, particularly since the mid‐1990s. In the early 2000s, female HCC mortality rates were highest in Italy (1.9/100,000), Switzerland (1.8), and Spain (1.5) and lowest in Greece, Ireland, and Sweden (0.3). In most countries, trends at age 45‐59 years were consistent with overall ones, whereas they were more favorable at age 20‐44 years in both sexes. Conclusion: HCC mortality remains largely variable across Europe. Favorable trends were observed in several European countries mainly over the last decade, particularly in women and in young adults. (HEPATOLOGY 2008.)