Fabio Sánchez

Armed Conflict Exposure, Human Capital Investments, And Child Labor: Evidence From Colombia

This article estimates the effect of armed conflict exposure on school drop-out and labor decisions of Colombian children between the ages of 6 and 17. The empirical strategy is based on two-stage duration analysis and biprobit estimations that take into account the endogeneity of conflict. We find that conflict affects children older than 11, inducing them to drop out of school and enter the labor market too early. We find that short-term exposure to violence is the most relevant for these decisions and probable channels of transmission include higher mortality risks, negative economic shocks, and lesser school quality.

A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF CRIME AND INEQUALITY IN COLOMBIA

Economic theory suggests that inequality should influence crime positively. Yet, the evidence in favor of that hypothesis is weak. Pure cross-sectional analyses show significant positive effects but cannot control for fixed effects. Time series and panel data point to a variety of results, but few turn out being significant. The hypothesis maintained in this paper is that it is a specific part of the distribution, rather than the overall distribution as summarized by conventional inequality measures, that is most likely to influence the rate of (property) crime in a given society. Using a simple theoretical model and panel data in seven Colombian cities over a fifteen-year period, a structural model is proposed that permits identifying the precise segment of the population whose relative income best explains time changes in crime. (JEL: K42, D63, O15) Copyright (c) 2003 The European Economic Association.

Land Conflicts, Property Rights, and the Rise of the Export Economy in Colombia, 1850–1925

This research attempts to explain the poor performance of the Colombian economy in the world markets during the late nineteenth century. Based on data on exportable production at the municipal level in 1892, coffee production in 1925 and of public land allocation and land conflicts during the nineteenth and twentieth century, we found that the greatest obstacle that faced Colombian export development was the weakness of settlers´ property rights in the frontier lands. The quantitative results show that in the absence of land conflicts, the municipality´s exportable production would have been at least twice as muchas that observed.

What Part of the Income Distribution Matters for Explaining Property Crime? The Case of Colombia

Inequality has always been taken as a major explanatory factor of the rate of crime. Yet, the evidence in favor of that hypothesis is weak. Pure cross-sectional analyses show significant positive effects but do not control for fixed effects. Time series and panel data point to a variety of results, but few turn out being significant. The hypothesis maintained in this paper is that it is a specific part of the distribution, rather than the overall distribution as summarized by conventional inequality measures, that is most likely to influence the rate of (property) crime in a given society. Using a simple theoretical model and panel data in 7 Colombian cities over a 20 year period, we design a method that permits identifying the precise segment of the population whose relative income best explains time changes in crime.

Credit for Low-Income Students and Access to and Academic Performance in Higher Education in Colombia: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

This study evaluates the impact of a national level subsidized loan program, ACCES, on a number of higher education outcomes (i.e., increase in enrollment rates, decrease in dropout rates, and increase in academic performance) of low-income students in Colombia. We use national level data along with a regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of the program. The results confirm that the program was effective in terms of increasing the potential number of low-income students at the margin who would have enrolled in college, decreasing the number of students who dropped out, and increasing their academic outcomes.

Macroeconomic Performance and Inequality in Colombia: 1976-1996

This paper explores the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and urban income distribution in Colombia. The results show that unemployment and inflation have significant regressive effects. Manufacturing output growth is clearly progressive, as well as improved conditions in the rural areas. Currency overvaluation is also related to income concentration. In this sense, it is no suprise that the recent combination of high unemployment, an overvalued currency, and low overall economic growth have resulted in greater inequality. The paper olso finds that unemployment and inflation have an adverse effect on education of the poor. Thus, macroeconomic instability is detrimental for the accumulation of human capital, which in turn has a long-term effect on the distribution of income.

The Methodological Challenges of Measuring Student Learning, Degree Attainment, and Early Labor Market Outcomes in Higher Education

ABSTRACT The main objective of this study is to empirically test a number of theory-based models (i.e., fixed effects [FE], random effects [RE], and aggregated residuals [AR]) to measure the generic knowledge as well as the degree attainment rates and early labor outcomes gained by students in different programs and institutions in higher education. Our results show the importance of addressing the issue of student selection into programs and institutions in order to reduce selection bias, and they provide suggestive evidence in favor of using FE models. Our findings also confirm our hypotheses that rankings of specific college-program combinations change depending on the different educational and labor outcome measures considered. This finding emphasizes the need to use complementary indicators related to the mission of the specific postsecondary institutions that are being ranked. Given the sensitivity of the models to different model specifications, it is not clear whether they should be used to make any high-stakes decisions in higher education. They could, however, serve as part of a broader set of indicators to support programs and colleges as part of a formative evaluation.

On the Radio: Effectiveness of the Viva Seguro Financial Education Program

Through a novel randomized control trial this paper estimates the impact of Viva Seguro, a financial education program that covers topics on risks and insurance management, on knowledge, attitudes and actual behavior. The program was broadcasted in two Colombian radio stations that have low and medium income households as target audience. Listeners from these radio stations comprise our treatment group. The control group is comprised by listeners from other two radio stations of similar characteristics and from the same broadcasting company. Using panel data information on both the treatment and the control group we find that giving financial education through such mass media channel has a positive impact on the knowledge of risks individuals face, the number of insurance they know exist and their perceived capability of understanding and handling insurance. No effect however is found on the knowledge of specific concepts of insurance, or their attitudes towards it, in savings behavior or the number of insurance bought. In general results show that delivering financial education through radio is a cost effective alternative in order to improve knowledge on insurance related concepts.

Do Loans for Higher Education Lead to Better Salaries? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach for Colombia

Since 2002 the ACCES credit for higher education has financed more than 280,000 students. Prior evaluations have shown evidence as to its positive effect on the academic performance and the reduction in the dropout rates of the recipients. Nevertheless, no evidence exists so far on the effect these credit programs have had on the labor market indicators of their beneficiaries. In this study we attempt to estimate such effect. In particular, the question we seek to answer is if, once working as graduates, do the beneficiaries of ACCES loans have higher salaries and if this is the case, why does this happen and through which channels does it occur. Using administrative data for more than 300 thousand applicants of this credit in Colombia and using a regression discontinuity design, we found that the recipients of the ACCES educational credit have starting salaries as graduates which are higher in comparison with those graduates not receiving this credit. We also undertake a mediation methodology within an Intent-to-Treat Regression Discontinuity framework that allows for a precise identification and quantification of the mediation channels. We concluded that once graduated, the ACCES beneficiaries’ exhibit longer job search periods, which would substantially explain their greater starting salaries of their first formal jobs. Academic performance during college also account for the differences in starting salaries yet to lesser degree.

Conflict, Violence and Criminal Activity in Colombia: A Spatial Analysis

This document analyzes the existing relationship between the armed conflict and the different manifestations of violence and criminal activity. For this purpose, a historical review on the internal conflicts and civil wars in Colombia since the XIX Century is presented, with emphasis on the Violence Period (1926-1962), followed by the analysis of the origin and evolution of the illegally armed groups in Colombia (FARC-EP, ELN and paramilitary groups). Likewise, the document describes the trends of violence and criminal activity indicators, and analyzes, by using spatial analysis techniques, the existing dynamics between conflict and violent crimes. Finally and using spatial econometric tools, the determinants of violent crimes (homicides, kidnapping, crimes against property and robbery) are shown. The results suggest that persistence and spatial diffusion are present in all crimes. The efficiency of justice, the narcotraffic, and, to a great extent, the activity of the illegally armed groups, are the variables that mostly explain violence (homicides). Furthermore, kidnapping is basically explained by the activity of those groups. Therefore, the results of this paper show that the conflict dynamics determines the global violence dynamics in the country and not only the deaths directly associated with the conflict.