Fabricio José Missio

Determinants of the real exchange rate in the long-run for developing and emerging countries: a theoretical and empirical approach

Abstract This paper presents a new framework for the determinants of real exchange in the long-run in developing and emerging countries (DECs). We assume that currencies should be regarded as an asset. In consequence, dealers in the foreign exchange market play a crucial role on its dynamics. To set our model, we connect the model developed by Kaltenbrunner, which is grounded on chapter 17 of the General Theory, with productivity’s differential effect. By doing so, it states that even short-run factors and monetary variables affect the long-run real exchange rate. Moreover, it points out that the hierarchical nature of the international monetary system is crucial to understand exchange rate movements in DECs. Besides presenting such theoretical approach, our contribution is to test it empirically for 45 DECs from 1990 to 2008 by applying econometric techniques appropriate for panel data. We use a new data-set, which comprises, among other variables, foreign portfolio flow, interest rate differential, external vulnerability measures, and international liquidity, on annual basis. The empirical results endorse this framework. Overall, it shows the primacy of financial factors as determinants of the long-run real exchange rate and points to the endogenous and self-perpetuating nature of international monetary system hierarchy.