Fabrizio Carlevaro

Dynamic energy demand models with latent equipment

Abstract Our approach to energy demand modelling is based on a two-level dynamic analysis. In the short run we consider the stock of energy-using appliances as fixed. Only its intensity of use may change. However, in the long run this stock may vary. The short- and long-run demand equations are integrated into a single-equation dynamic model in which the equipment is ruled out. Our application to the demand for energy in Switzerland shows the power of this simple but flexible model which provides a thorough explanation of past behavior and a firm basis for the exploration of future demand evolution paths.

Costing Improved Water Supply Systems for Low-income Communities: A Practical Manual

This manual and the free downloadable costing tool is the outcome of a project identified by the Water, Sanitation and Health Programme (WSH) of the World Health Organization (WHO) faced with the challenge of costing options for improved access, both to safe drinking water and to adequate sanitation. Although limited in scope to the process of costing safe water supply technologies, a proper use of this material lies within a larger setting considering the cultural, environmental, institutional, political and social conditions that should be used by policy decision makers in developing countries to promote sustainable development strategies. Costing Improved Water Supply Systems for Low-income Communities provides practical guidance to facilitate and standardize the implementation of social life-cycle costing to “improved” drinking-water supply technologies. These technologies have been defined by the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation, as those that, by the nature of its construction, adequately protect the source of water from outside contamination, in particular with faecal matter. The conceptual framework used has also been conceived to be applied to costing improved sanitation options. To facilitate the application of the costing method to actual projects, a basic tool was developed using Microsoft Excel, which is called a water supply costing processor. It enables a user-friendly implementation of all the tasks involved in a social life-cycle costing process and provides both the detailed and the consolidated cost figures that are needed by decision-makers. The scope and the limits of the costing method in a real setting was assessed through field tests designed and performed by local practitioners in selected countries. These tests were carried out in Peru and in six countries in the WHO regions of South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. They identified practical issues in using the manual and the water supply costing processor and provided practical recommendations. ISBN: 9781780407227 (eBook) ISBN: 9781780407210 (Print)

A Nonlinear Expenditure System

The importance of quantitative analysis of household consumption in the development of econometrics no longer need to be stressed. This branch of economics, also known as demand analysis, is closely associated with the very origin of econometrics and has contributed to its expansion.

Measuring and Diagnosing the Efficiency of Electricity Services in Buildings

This paper summarises the methodology and the results of a study conducted by a multidisciplinary group1 formed to carry out a mandate for the Geneva Cantonal Office of Energy. The purpose of this study is to devise an indicator to assess the electricity efficiency of a building from a rather interesting angle for its conservation potential, namely the efficiency of the “building’s common services”, i.e. the services addressed to all the residents of a building (lighting of common space, laundry equipment, lifts, electric fans, etc.). The aim of the project was to develop a single indicator of electricity performance, similar to and likely to be added to the “energy specific consumption” for heating purposes, measured in mega joules per square meter, widely accepted and used by energy professionals to asses the thermal quality of a building. Such a single measure of electricity performance turned out to be unsuitable, due to the wide diversity of common services in buildings. Therefore, the project was redirected towards the development of a complete set of partial electricity performance indicators: one for each type of common service.

Modeling and Forecasting the World Demand for Oil

Abstract We describe the results of a research project aimed at modeling and forecasting in the short-run the world demand for petroleum products on a regional basis. To this end, we have adapted a dynamic demand model already widely tested and proven in the preparation of longer term forecasts of energy demand on a national basis. From a first forecasting experiment aimed at testing the forecast capabilities of our model we conclude that, to yield useful projections to petroleum industry, our model deserves further improvements, especially following those lines that we list in the conclusions of the paper.

Macroeconomic Impact of Nuclear Power Discontinuation Policies in Switzerland: A General Equilibrium Assessment

Abstract This paper presents the methodology and some results of a study that the authors were mandated to carry out in order to quantify the macroeconomic impact on the Swiss economy of some energy policy options investigated by an experts group set up by the Swiss government to elaborate energy scenarios related to the nuclear power discontinuation debate. The analysis is based on an applied general equilibrium model made computable using different sources of statistical data and estimation methods. The calculated impacts show that the policy options to phase out nuclear power are practically neutral with respect to the principal macroeconomic magnitudes.

COMPETITIVE TECHNOLOGIES, EQUIPMENT VINTAGES AND THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY

Macroeconometric modelling of energy demand resorts to two approaches leading to models describing the reality from different points of view. The first approach specifies the demand of a group of consumers for a single form of energy, independent of the demand for other fuels. This approach leads to very flexible models which enable the specification of peculiarities of each fuel demand and which are easy to estimate and use. The most elaborate versions of these models focus upon the dynamics of energy demand and explicitly take into account the complementarity link between this demand and that of a stock of fuel burning equipments.2 In this way, they enable the study of the lags with which energy demand reacts to the environmental changes and open the way to generalisations aimed at representing the part played by the equipment technological change.2 Their main disadvantage concerns the specification of interfuel substitutions generated by changes in the pattern of energy prices. Indeed, when it is applied to modelling the demand for competitive fuels, this approach leads to a system of unrelated fuel demand functions. This lack of analytical integration leads, in general, to capture asymmetrical substitution effects by means of cross prices.