Fabrizio Carmignani

Political Instability, Uncertainty and Economics

This paper focuses on the relationship between political instability, policy–making and macroeconomic outcomes. The theoretical section explores various models that explain the effect of instability (and political uncertainty) on growth, budget formation, inflation and monetary policy. The empirical section discusses the evidence on the predictions generated by theoretical models. Preliminary to this discussion, however, is the analysis of a few general issues concerning the specification and estimation of econometric models with political variables. Some new results are then produced on the empirical relevance of theories of strategic use of fiscal deficit.

Migrants’ Remittances and Financial Development: Macro‐ and Micro‐Level Evidence of a Perverse Relationship

Financial development and financial literacy in developing countries are commonly identified as important conditions for attaining higher rates of investment and economic growth. It has also been argued that migrants’ remittances stimulate financial development in the receiving economy, contributing indirectly to economic growth. Past research has been based almost exclusively on the macro-level relationship between remittances and financial depth. To explore this relationship further, we combine macroeconomic analysis using a cross-country panel dataset with micro-level analysis of households’ uses of financial sector services. From the macroeconomic analysis we find evidence of a negative relationship between remittances and financial deepening in developing countries, once we control for the countries’ legal origin. At the microeconomic level we use household survey data from a recent study of migrants’ remittances in two transition economies, resource rich and relatively more financially developed Azerbaijan, and Kyrgyzstan, to test the relationship between remittances and financial literacy among remittance-receiving households. While we find some supportive evidence, albeit weak, for Kyrgyzstan, in Azerbaijan, the relatively more financially-developed economy, we uncover a strong perverse relationship. Remittances appear to deter the use of formal banking services. Possible reasons are explored and areas for further investigation identified.

New Evidence on the Politics and Economics of Multiparty Cabinets Duration

A Proportional Hazards Specification for cabinet duration data is estimated by mean of a flexible parametric approach. The hazard rate is found to be significantly affected by the majority status, the degree of fragmentation and ideological homogeneity of the coalition, the stability and the polarisation of the legislature and the time horizon at the moment of cabinet formation. Interesting innovative results concern the higher stability of cabinets supported by coalitions ideologically closer to the median party and/or left-oriented. The overall state of the economy also has a role. Graphical evidence suggests that the underlying distribution of duration data might be a Gompertz distribution. Copyright 2002 by Scottish Economic Society.

Cabinet formation in coalition systems

Theoretical and empirical issues concerning the political bargaining process over cabinet formation in coalition systems are addressed in this paper. A set of theoretical predictions is tested using a sample of 13 western European countries observed throughout the period 1950-995. It appears that the formation delay is increasing in the degree of ideological heterogeneity of coalition partners and that the share of portfolios secured by the formateur is decreasing in the degree of complexity of the bargaining environment. A few factors affecting the degree to which the outcome of the negotiation process can be defined as balanced are also identified. Copyright 2001 by Scottish Economic Society.

Addressing the Unemployment-Mortality Conundrum: Non-Linearity is the Answer

The effect of unemployment on mortality is the object of a lively literature. However, this literature is characterized by sharply conflicting results. We revisit this issue and suggest that the relationship might be non-linear. We use data for 265 territorial units (regions) within 23 European countries over the period 2000-2012 to estimate a multivariate regression of mortality. The estimating equation allows for a quadratic relationship between unemployment and mortality. We control for various other determinants of mortality at regional and national level and we include region-specific and time-specific fixed effects. The model is also extended to account for the dynamic adjustment of mortality and possible lagged effects of unemployment. We find that the relationship between mortality and unemployment is U shaped. In the benchmark regression, when the unemployment rate is low, at 3%, an increase by one percentage point decreases average mortality by 0.7%. As unemployment increases, the effect decays: when the unemployment rate is 8% (sample average) a further increase by one percentage point decreases average mortality by 0.4%. The effect changes sign, turning from negative to positive, when unemployment is around 17%. When the unemployment rate is 25%, a further increase by one percentage point raises average mortality by 0.4%. Results hold for different causes of death and across different specifications of the estimating equation. We argue that the non-linearity arises because the level of unemployment affects the psychological and behavioural response of individuals to worsening economic conditions.

The Curse of Being Landlocked: Institutions Rather than Trade

This article revisits the long‐term economic effects of being landlocked. The conventional wisdom, which also prevails in policy circles, is that landlockedness hurts development by reducing trade. Gravity models of bilateral trade seem to confirm this view. However, there is no evidence in cross‐country data of a systematic relationship between landlockedness and countrys trade to GDP ratio. Drawing on this stylised fact, the paper explores the possibility that landlockedness might affect GDP independently from its effect on trade. Theoretical considerations suggest that institutional quality could be a relevant transmission mechanism. The estimation of a system of three equations confirms that landlockedness has a negative effect on GDP and that this negative effect is transmitted through institutions rather than trade. Moreover, after controlling for the transmission via institutions and trade, landlockedness has a further negative effect on GDP. These findings call for a review of the policy approach to the development of landlocked countries.

Economic and Socio-Political Determinants of de Facto Monetary Institutions and Inflationary Outcomes

In this paper we estimate a model where inflation, a measure of de facto central bank independence and an index of de facto exchange rate regime are simultaneously determined by a set of economic, political and institutional variables. De facto central bank independence is hampered by socio-political turbulence and benefits from the balance of powers between the executive and the parliament. Inflation is explained by de facto central bank independence, by the level and volatility of public expenditure and by the de facto exchange rate regime. Openness (real and financial) affects inflation through the exchange rate regime channel. Success in controlling inflation, in turn is crucial to sustain central bank independence and exchange rate stability.

Provincial Business Cycles and Fiscal Policy in China

This paper begins by documenting considerable asynchronization in business cycle fluctuations across China’s 31 provinces. Given that monetary policy is more or less centralized, this asynchronization points to potential benefits from provinces being able to exercise a degree of fiscal autonomy. The extent to which provinces have this autonomy in practice is discussed. Provincial fiscal policy is then analysed to assess whether it has had the effect of smoothing provincial business cycles. A key finding is that, if anything, provincial fiscal policy has amplified provincial business cycles, not smoothed them.

Identifying covariates of population health using extreme bound analysis

AbstractBackground The literature is full of lively discussion on the determinants of population health outcomes. However, different papers focus on small and different sets of variables according to their research agenda. Because many of these variables are measures of different aspects of development and are thus correlated, the results for one variable can be sensitive to the inclusion/exclusion of others.MethodWe tested for the robustness of potential predictors of population health using the extreme bounds analysis. Population health was measured by life expectancy at birth and infant mortality rate.ResultsWe found that only about half a dozen variables are robust predictors for life expectancy and infant mortality rate. Among them, adolescent fertility rate, improved water sources, and gender equality are the most robust. All institutional variables and environment variables are systematically non-robust predictors of population health.ConclusionThe results highlight the importance of robustness tests in identifying predictors or potential determinants of population health, and cast doubts on the findings of previous studies that fail to do so.

The Making of Pro-Poor Growth

A system of three endogenous equations is used to estimate the determinants of poverty dynamics. The system incorporates: (i) the direct effect of growth and income inequality on poverty, (ii) the feedback effect of poverty on inequality and growth, and (iii) different channels through which economic policies can contribute to poverty reduction. Results suggest that countries tend to move towards one of two possible equilibria. The positive (virtuous) equilibrium is characterized by fast growth, decreasing inequality, and rapid poverty reduction. The negative (vicious) equilibrium involves slow (or even negative) growth, sharpening inequalities, and resilient poverty. The policy mix is critical in determining to which of the two equilibria a country converges.