Falguni Pattanaik

Trends and forecasting of employment intensity of growth in India

In the labour surplus Indian economy, growth must ensure high employment. In order to examine how employment has evolved over time with output, this study analyses the trends of employment intensity of growth in India at the aggregate and across broad sectors for the period 1961–2004 and forecasts the same for the future applying the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. The results indicate that India has been experiencing jobless growth since the 1990s primarily due to the failure of manufacturing and services. The forecasting results reveal possible improvement in employment elasticity of secondary sector, whereas tertiary sector would continue to remain a concern. The dependence on primary sector would continue to rise, leading to its negative labour productivity.

Growth Performance of Major Crop Groups in Odisha Agriculture: A Spatiotemporal Analysis

This study has analysed the pattern in growth of area, production and productivity of major crop groups across the physiographic zones in the state of Odisha for the period 1993–94 to 2010–11. It has observed an unstable and unsustainable growth in area, production and productivity over the years in the state as well as in all physiographic zones. The relatively high growth rate of foodgrains production in Odisha has been achieved mainly through area effect. Although, contribution of technology towards sustainable output growth has been recognized, growth in the yield rate is slow. This sluggish growth in area, production and yield of all crop groups in the state is because of slow expansion of irrigation network, low level of fertilizer consumption, slow rate of technology adoption, and low level of infrastructural development. The slowdown in the process of cropping pattern change indicates the failure of most government efforts to diversify agriculture in the state. It is time to reform this sector and accord importance to food safety issues to meet the growing demand for quality food through stable and sustainable growth in agriculture and replacing subsidies with investments and infrastructural development.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Employment Intensity of Growth in India

Despite India’s resurgent growth over the past years, the country seems to have failed miserably on the employment front. The employment content of economic growth—the employment intensity of growth—is on the decline. The objective of the present study is to identify the macroeconomic determinants which influence the employment intensity of growth in India. The study covers data for the period 1993–94 to 2009–10 across 15 major Indian states and applies a panel data model to find out these determinants. The results tend to suggest that labour supply, economic structure, price instability and human capital are major determining factors. Pro-employment growth in India may require measures like diversification of economic activities towards labour-intensive sectors, price stability, skill-based education and adoption of labour-intensive technology. JEL Classification: J21, J23

Economic Freedom and Employment in India

The recent move of Indian policymakers towards a more open economy with less government control is said to have brought about considerable changes in the policy structure with respect to the size of the government—expenditures, taxes and enterprises—legal structure and security of property rights, regulation of labour and business. Economic freedom, which encompasses these indicators, may have a potential impact on, and may facilitate better integration of, labour market outcomes such as labour quality and creating employment opportunities in India. In a federal system like India’s, economic and political institutions such as business regulation, taxation and government spending differ significantly across states. This study, considering 20 major Indian states, tests the hypothesis that greater economic freedom may lead to higher rates of employment for these states. The results indicate that economic freedom is likely to have a favourable impact on employment. The most important dimensions are strong rule of law and flexible regulations governing credit, labour and product markets. The rise in income per capita is a critical factor in this set-up. JEL Classification: O40, E24

Employment Intensity of Growth in India

In the face of the challenges of globalization, there are new questions about the ability of Indian economy to adjust to structural change and how to foster a more dynamic and competitive environment that encourages to enhance productivity and create new employment. However, there is a need to answer several important questions when examining the issue of employment intensity of growth: the patterns of economic growth and what are the sectors and subsectors in which output growth generates more jobs; and are these sectors getting sufficient priority to meet the employment objective? The findings suggest that favourable macroeconomic environment and improvements in the functioning of labour markets and institutions are essential to adjust to globalization and transformation of the Indian economy.