Fares Alahdab

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016

The last 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs may reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.Summary Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2–73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5–20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00–8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006–16—age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176–181) increase in deaths in ages 90–94 years and a 210% (208–212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B viral infection in adults: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Chronic hepatitis B viral (HBV) infection remains a significant global health problem. Evidence‐based guidelines are needed to help providers determine when treatment should be initiated, which medication is most appropriate, and when treatment can safely be stopped. The American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases HBV guideline methodology and writing committees developed a protocol a priori for this systematic review. We searched multiple databases for randomized controlled trials and controlled observational studies that enrolled adults ≥18 years old diagnosed with chronic HBV infection who received antiviral therapy. Data extraction was done by pairs of independent reviewers. We included 73 studies, of which 59 (15 randomized controlled trials and 44 observational studies) reported clinical outcomes. Moderate‐quality evidence supported the effectiveness of antiviral therapy in patients with immune active chronic HBV infection in reducing the risk of cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, and hepatocellular carcinoma. In immune tolerant patients, moderate‐quality evidence supports improved intermediate outcomes with antiviral therapy. Only very low‐quality evidence informed the questions about discontinuing versus continuing antiviral therapy in hepatitis B e antigen‐positive patients who seroconverted from hepatitis B e antigen to hepatitis B e antibody and about the safety of entecavir versus tenofovir. Noncomparative and indirect evidence was available for questions about stopping versus continuing antiviral therapy in hepatitis B e antigen‐negative patients, monotherapy versus adding a second agent in patients with persistent viremia during treatment, and the effectiveness of antivirals in compensated cirrhosis with low‐level viremia. Conclusion: Most of the current literature focuses on the immune active phases of chronic HBV infection; decision‐making in other commonly encountered and challenging clinical settings depends on indirect evidence. (Hepatology 2016;63:284–306)

Charged particle therapy versus photon therapy for paranasal sinus and nasal cavity malignant diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Malignant tumours arising within the nasal cavity and paranasal sinuses are rare and composed of several histological types, rendering controlled clinical trials to establish the best treatment impractical. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the clinical outcomes of patients treated with charged particle therapy with those of individuals receiving photon therapy. METHODS We identified studies of nasal cavity and paranasal sinus tumours through searches of databases including Embase, Medline, Scopus, and the Cochrane Collaboration. We included treatment-naive cohorts (both primary and adjuvant radiation therapy) and those with recurrent disease. Primary outcomes of interest were overall survival, disease-free survival, and locoregional control, at 5 years and at longest follow-up. We used random-effect models to pool outcomes across studies and compared event rates of combined outcomes for charged particle therapy and photon therapy using an interaction test. FINDINGS 43 cohorts from 41 non-comparative observational studies were included. Median follow-up for the charged particle therapy group was 38 months (range 5-73) and for the photon therapy group was 40 months (14-97). Pooled overall survival was significantly higher at 5 years for charged particle therapy than for photon therapy (relative risk 1·51, 95% CI 1·14-1·99; p=0·0038) and at longest follow-up (1·27, 1·01-1·59; p=0·037). At 5 years, disease-free survival was significantly higher for charged particle therapy than for photon therapy (1·93, 1·36-2·75, p=0·0003) but, at longest follow-up, this event rate did not differ between groups (1·51, 1·00-2·30; p=0·052). Locoregional control did not differ between treatment groups at 5 years (1·06, 0·68-1·67; p=0·79) but it was higher for charged particle therapy than for photon therapy at longest follow-up (1·18, 1·01-1·37; p=0·031). A subgroup analysis comparing proton beam therapy with intensity-modulated radiation therapy showed significantly higher disease-free survival at 5 years (relative risk 1·44, 95% CI 1·01-2·05; p=0·045) and locoregional control at longest follow-up (1·26, 1·05-1·51; p=0·011). INTERPRETATION Compared with photon therapy, charged particle therapy could be associated with better outcomes for patients with malignant diseases of the nasal cavity and paranasal sinuses. Prospective studies emphasising collection of patient-reported and functional outcomes are strongly encouraged. FUNDING Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research.

A systematic review for the screening for peripheral arterial disease in asymptomatic patients

BACKGROUND Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is common and associated with significant morbidity and mortality. PAD can be detected through a noninvasive measurement of the ankle-brachial index (ABI). METHODS We conducted a systematic review of several electronic bibliographic databases for studies that evaluated ABI as a screening test for PAD in asymptomatic individuals. We conducted random-effects meta-analysis, reporting pooled hazard ratios (HRs) when appropriate. RESULTS We included 40 individual studies, 2 systematic reviews, and 1 individual-patient data meta-analysis. We found no studies comparing ABI screening with no screening in terms of patient-important outcomes (mortality, amputations). The yield of PAD screening averaged 17% (range, 1%-42%) and was 1% to 4% in lower risk populations. Patients with PAD had higher adjusted risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 2.99; 95% confidence interval, 2.16-4.12) and of cardiovascular mortality (HR, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.91-2.89). Data on benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of screening were limited; however, ABI screening was associated with additional prognostic information and risk stratification for heart disease. The overall quality of evidence supporting screening was low. CONCLUSIONS The current available evidence demonstrates that PAD is common in patients with multiple cardiovascular risk factors and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, but it does not support the benefit of routine ABI screening.

Menopausal Hormone Therapy and Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES The objective was to assess the effect of menopausal hormonal therapy (MHT) on all-cause and cause-specific mortality. METHODS We conducted a comprehensive search of several databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus) from inception until August 2013. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of more than 6 months of duration comparing MHT with no treatment. Pairs of independent reviewers selected trials, assessed risk of bias and extracted data. We estimated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the random-effects model. RESULTS We included 43 RCTs at moderate risk of bias. Meta-analysis showed no effect on mortality (RR 0.99 [95% CI, 0.94-1.05]), regardless of MHT type or history of preexisting heart disease. No association was found between MHT and cardiac death (RR 1.04 [95% CI 0.87-1.23]) or stroke (RR 1.49 [95% CI 0.95-2.31]). Estrogen plus progesterone use was associated with a likely increase in breast cancer mortality (RR 1.96 [95% CI 0.98-3.94]), whereas estrogen use was not. MHT use was not associated with mortality of other types of cancer. In 5 trials, MHT was likely started at a younger age: 2 RCTs with mean age less than 60 and 3 RCTs with MHT started less than 10 years after menopause. Meta-analysis of these 5 RCTs showed a reduction of mortality with MHT (RR 0.70 [95% CI 0.52-0.95]). CONCLUSION The current evidence suggests that MHT does not affect the risk of death from all causes, cardiac death and death from stroke or cancer. These data may be used to support clinical and policy deliberations about the role of MHT in the care of symptomatic postmenopausal women.

DIAGNOSIS OF ENDOCRINE DISEASE: The diagnostic performance of adrenal biopsy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE To perform a systematic review of published literature on adrenal biopsy and to assess its performance in diagnosing adrenal malignancy. METHODS Medline In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trial were searched from inception to February 2016. Reviewers extracted data and assessed methodological quality in duplicate. RESULTS We included 32 observational studies reporting on 2174 patients (39.4% women, mean age 59.8 years) undergoing 2190 adrenal mass biopsy procedures. Pathology was described in 1621/2190 adrenal lesions (689 metastases, 68 adrenocortical carcinomas, 64 other malignancies, 464 adenomas, 226 other benign, 36 pheochromocytomas, and 74 others). The pooled non-diagnostic rate (30 studies, 2013 adrenal biopsies) was 8.7% (95%CI: 6-11%). The pooled complication rate (25 studies, 1339 biopsies) was 2.5% (95%CI: 1.5-3.4%). Studies were at a moderate risk for bias. Most limitations related to patient selection, assessment of outcome, and adequacy of follow-up. Only eight studies (240 patients) could be included in the diagnostic performance analysis with a sensitivity and specificity of 87 and 100% for malignancy, 70 and 98% for adrenocortical carcinoma, and 87 and 96% for metastasis respectively. CONCLUSIONS Evidence based on small sample size and moderate risk of bias suggests that adrenal biopsy appears to be most useful in the diagnosis of adrenal metastasis in patients with a history of extra-adrenal malignancy. Adrenal biopsy should only be performed if the expected findings are likely to alter the management of the individual patient and after biochemical exclusion of catecholamine-producing tumors to help prevent potentially life-threatening complications.

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion versus multiple daily injections in individuals with type 1 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The relative efficacy of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion and multiple daily injections in individuals with type 1 diabetes is unclear. We sought to synthesize the existing evidence about the effect of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion on glycosylated hemoglobin, hypoglycemic events, and time spent in hypoglycemia compared to multiple daily injections. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus from January 2008 through November 2015 for randomized controlled trials that enrolled children or adults with type 1 diabetes. Trials identified in a previous systematic review and published prior to 2008 were also included. We included 25 randomized controlled trials at moderate risk of bias. Meta-analysis showed a significant reduction in glycosylated hemoglobin in patients treated with continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion compared to multiple daily injections (mean difference 0.37; 95 % confidence interval, 0.24–0.51). This effect was demonstrated in both children and adults. There was no significant difference in minor or severe hypoglycemic events. Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion was associated with lower incidence of nocturnal hypoglycemia. There was no significant difference in the time spent in hypoglycemia. In children and adults with type 1 diabetes and compared to multiple daily injections, continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion is associated with a modest reduction in glycosylated hemoglobin. There was no difference in severe or minor hypoglycemia, but likely a lower incidence of nocturnal hypoglycemia with continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion.

The association of 9p21-3 locus with coronary atherosclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundStudies suggest that the 9p21-3 locus may influence susceptibility to myocardial infarction. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess whether this locus is associated with severity of coronary atherosclerosis and adverse clinical outcomes in those with known coronary disease.MethodsMultiple electronic databases were searched from inception through August 2012. Studies examining 9p21-3 genotype in patients with known coronary artery disease were included. We extracted the association of the 9p21-3 locus with measures of severity of coronary atherosclerosis [number of diseased vessels, Gensini Score, Duke CAD Prognostic Index (DPI)], angiographic outcomes [change in minimum lumen diameter (∆MLD) and number of new lesions at follow-up], and key clinical outcomes (all-cause mortality, recurrent myocardial infarction and the need for coronary revascularization). Relative risks (RR) and weighted mean difference (WMD) were pooled using the random effects models.Results23 cohorts enrolling 16,860 participants were analyzed. There was no significant difference between HR and LR genotypes in terms of all-cause mortality, recurrent myocardial infarction or the frequency of coronary revascularization. HR genotype was associated with increased risk of triple vessel disease (RR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.08-1.65; P = 0.01) and increased baseline Gensini Score (WMD = 5.30; 95% CI 0.66-9.93; P = 0.03). However there was no association with DPI (WMD = 4.00; 95% CI 2.94-10.94; P = 0.26). HR genotype did not predict ∆MLD or number of new lesions at follow-up.ConclusionsPatients of coronary atherosclerosis who carry the high risk genotype of the 9p21-3 allele may be more likely to have multi-vessel CAD. However the effect of this allele on CAD progression and disease specific clinical outcomes are not observed possibly due to diminishing genetic risk following dietary modification and therapy.

Management and diagnosis of psychogenic cough, habit cough, and tic cough: a systematic review

BACKGROUND Several pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic therapeutic options have been used to treat cough that is not associated with a pulmonary or extrapulmonary etiology. METHODS We conducted a systematic review to summarize the evidence supporting different cough management options in adults and children with psychogenic, tic, and habit cough. Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus were searched from the earliest inception of each database to September 2013. Content experts were contacted, and we searched bibliographies of included studies to identify additional references. RESULTS A total of 18 uncontrolled studies were identified, enrolling 223 patients (46% male subjects, 96% children and adolescents). Psychogenic cough was the most common descriptive term used (90% of the studies). Most of the patients (95%) had no cough during sleep; barking or honking quality of cough was described in only eight studies. Hypnosis (three studies), suggestion therapy (four studies), and counseling and reassurance (seven studies) were the most commonly used interventions. Hypnosis was effective in resolving cough in 78% of the patients and improving it in another 5%. Suggestion therapy resolved cough successfully in 96% of the patients. The greatest majority of improvements noted with these forms of therapy occurred in the pediatric age group. The quality of evidence is low due to the lack of control groups, the retrospective nature of all the studies, heterogeneity of definitions and diagnostic criteria, and the high likelihood of reporting bias. CONCLUSIONS Only low-quality evidence exists to support a particular strategy to define and treat psychogenic, habit, and tic cough. Patient values, preferences, and availability of potential therapies should guide treatment choice.

Nonselective β-Blockers and Survival in Patients With Cirrhosis and Ascites: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS Nonselective β-blockers (NSBBs), given to reduce the risk of variceal bleeding, have been associated with increased mortality in patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites in some, but not all, studies. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of NSBBs on all-cause mortality in patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites. METHODS We performed a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus databases through January 2015, supplemented with a manual search. Trial-specific risk ratios (RRs) were pooled using the random-effects model. RESULTS Our analysis included 3 randomized control trials and 8 observational studies of propranolol, carvedilol, nadolol, and metoprolol, reporting 1206 deaths among 3145 patients with ascites. The control groups received other interventions to prevent variceal bleeding. NSBB use was not associated with increased all-cause mortality in all patients with ascites (RR, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67-1.35); nonrefractory ascites alone (RR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.50-1.82), or refractory ascites alone (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.57-1.61). Results were similar in randomized controlled trials and observational studies. Use of NSBBs was not associated with increased mortality at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Overall, the included studies had a medium to high risk of bias, except for 3 clinical trials in which the risk of biased was determined to be low. CONCLUSIONS The use of NSBBs was not associated with a significant increase in all-cause mortality in patients with cirrhosis and ascites or refractory ascites. Certainty in the available estimates is low; a randomized trial of only patients with ascites is needed to answer this question. This meta-analysis does not support the position that NSBBs routinely be withheld from patients with ascites.