Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

Monetary policy and oil price fluctuations following the subprime mortgage crisis

This study examines how monetary policy affected crude oil prices after the subprime mortgage crisis. Our earlier research found that easy monetary policy had a significant impact on energy prices during the period of 1980-2011. This paper finds that after the subprime mortgage crisis, the weaker exchange rate of the US dollar caused by the countrys quantitative easing pushed oil prices in US dollars upward over the period of 2009-2012, by causing investors to invest in the oil market and other commodity markets while the world economy was in recession in this period. This trend had the effect of imposing a longer recovery time on the global economy, as oil has been shown to be one of the most important production inputs.

Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, Incorporating Energy Prices

Abstract Japan has reached the limits of conventional macroeconomic policies. In order to overcome deflation and achieve sustainable economic growth, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently set an inflation target of 2 per cent and implemented an aggressive monetary policy so this target could be achieved as soon as possible. Although prices started to rise after the BOJ implemented monetary easing, this may have been for other reasons, such as higher energy prices as a result of the depreciated Japanese yen. This paper shows that quantitative easing may not be able to stimulate the Japanese economy. Aggregate demand, which includes private investment, did not increase significantly in Japan with lower interest rates. Private investment displays this unconventional behaviour because of the uncertainty about the future and because Japans population is ageing. The paper concludes that the remedy for Japans economic policy is not to be found in its monetary policy.

The Response of Macro Variables of Emerging and Developed Oil Importers to Oil Price Movements

This paper assesses the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and consumer price index inflation rate, in the developed economies of the United States and Japan, and an emerging economy, the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). These countries were chosen for this research because they are the worlds three largest oil consumers. The main objective of this study is to see whether these economies are still reactive to oil price movements. The results obtained suggest that the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers’ GDP growth is much lower than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. The main reasons for this lie in fuel substitution (higher use of nuclear energy, gas, and renewables), a declining population (for Japan), the shale gas revolution (for the United States), and strategic oil stocks and government-mandated energy efficiency targets in developed economies. All of these factors make developed economies more resistant to oil shocks. On the other hand, the impact of oil price movements on the PRCs inflation rate was found to be milder than in the two developed countries that were examined. The main cause for this is that the PRC experiences a larger forward shift in its aggregate supply due to higher growth, which allows it to avoid a massive increase in price levels following oil price shocks.

Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy: An Asian Stock Market Perspective

Abstract The article assesses the response of Tehran stock prices to exogenous monetary policy shocks, using a vector error correction model for the 1998Q1–2013Q2 period. Monetary policy is transmitted to stock market price through three routes: money by itself, exchange rate and inflation. Our result in this paper points to the fact that stock prices increase persistently in response to an exogenous easing monetary policy. Variance deposition results show that, after ten periods, the forecast error variance of more than 53 per cent of the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) can be explained by the exogenous shocks to the US dollar–Iranian rial exchange rate, while this ratio for exogenous shocks to the Iranian real gross domestic product was only 17 per cent. The article argues that such evidence can be accounted for by an endogenous response of the stock prices to the monetary policy shocks.

Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long-lasting Recession: Lessons for China

Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the early 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy (the lost decade). Economics Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has argued that Japans lost decade is an example of a liquidity trap. However, our empirical analysis shows that stagnation of the Japanese economy comes from its vertical IS curve rather than a horizontal LM curve, so the Japanese economy has been facing structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. The vertical IS curve is caused by an insensitivity of investment to a lower interest rate partly because of the decline of sales due to the aging population and firms not wanting to invest. The structural problems come from the aging demographic, which is often neglected by scholars and policy-makers, and also from the allocation of transfers from the central government to local governments, and the unwillingness of Japanese banks to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), mainly because of Basel capital requirements. Many countries, like China, are expected to face similar issues, particularly given the aging population. The present paper will address why the Japanese economy has been trapped in a prolonged slowdown and provide some remedies for revitalizing the economy.

Analysis of Credit Ratings for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Evidence from Asia

In Asia, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for the major share of employment and dominate domestic economies, yet providing these companies with access to finance is a challenge across the region. Asian economies are often characterized as having bank-dominated financial systems and underdeveloped capital markets, in particular with regard to venture capital. As a result, banks are the main source of financing for SMEs. It is crucial for banks to be able to distinguish healthy from risky companies. If they can do this, lending and financing SMEs through banks will be easier. In this paper, we explain the importance of SMEs in Asia. Then, we provide a scheme for assigning credit ratings to SMEs by employing two statistical analysis techniques—principal component analysis and cluster analysis—applying 11 financial ratios of 1,363 SMEs in Asia. If used by the financial institutions, this comprehensive and efficient method could enable banks and other lending agencies around the world, and especially in Asia, to group SME customers based on financial health and adjust interest rates on loans and set lending ceilings for each group.

Oil Price Fluctuations and Oil Consuming Sectors: An Empirical Analysis of Japan

Since the oil price shocks of the 1970s, several studies have found significant impacts of oil prices on macro variables. However, it is particularly crucial to know how each micro sector in an economy, such as the residential, transport, industrial and non-energy sectors, respond to oil price impulses. In this research, we try to shed light on the impact of crude oil price volatility on each sector in Japan, the world’s third-largest crude oil consumer. In order to do so, we apply a vector auto regression model and perform impulse response analysis by using quarterly data from Q1 1990 to Q1 2014. The findings indicate that some economic sectors, such as the residential sector, did not have significant sensitivity to the sharp oil price fluctuations. In contrast, some other sectors, like the commercial, industrial, and transport sectors, were strongly sensitive to the drastic oil price fluctuations. Moreover, our findings show that after the Fukushima disaster in 2011, which led to the shutdown of nuclear power plants in Japan, because of greater reliance on oil imports, the sensitivity of most sectors to oil price volatility declined.

Economic Impacts of Oil Price Fluctuations in Developed and Developing Economies

This chapter assess the impact of crude oil price movements on two macroeconomic variables—gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and the consumer price index inflation rate—in three economies: the United States and Japan (developed economies) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (emerging economy). These economies were chosen for this research because they are the world’s three largest oil consumers. The main objective of this research is to see whether these economies are still reactive to oil price movements. The results obtained suggest that the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers’ GDP growth is much milder than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. On the other hand, however, the impact of oil price fluctuations on the PRC’s inflation rate was found to be milder than in the two developed economies that were examined.

Three Arrows of 'Abenomics' and the Structural Reform of Japan: Inflation Targeting Policy of the Central Bank, Fiscal Consolidation, and Growth Strategy

“Abenomics” refers to the economic policies advocated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who became prime minister of Japan for a second time when his party, the Liberal Democratic Party, won an overwhelming majority at the general election in December 2012. Abenomics has “three arrows”: (i) aggressive monetary policy, (ii) fiscal consolidation, and (iii) growth strategy. The Japanese economy faces an aging population and expanding social welfare expenses. No other country has experienced Japan’s rapid growth of retired people. In this paper we will explain these three aspects of Abenomics and the current state of the Japanese economy, and examine what further remedies may be required if Japan is to recover from its long-term deflation. We look at such proposals as hometown investment trust funds and postponing of the retirement age through the introduction of a flexible wage rate system.

Hometown Investment Trust Funds: An Analysis of Credit Risk

In Asia, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for a major share of employment and dominate the economy. Asian economies are often characterized as having bank-dominated financial systems and underdeveloped capital markets, in particular venture capital markets. Hence, looking for new methods of financing for SMEs is crucial. Hometown investment trust funds (HIT) are a new form of financial intermediation that has now been adopted as a national strategy in Japan. In this paper, we explain the importance of SMEs in Asia and describe about HITs. We then provide a scheme for the credit rating of SMEs by employing two statistical analysis techniques, principal components analysis and cluster analysis, and applying various financial variables to 1,363 SMEs in Asia. Adoption of this comprehensive and efficient method would enable banks to group SME customers based on financial health, adjust interest rates on loans, and set lending ceilings for each group. Moreover, this method is applicable to HITs around the world.