Farhad Zulfiqar

Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan

Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory services.

Changing food patterns across the seasons in rural Pakistan: analysis of food variety, dietary diversity and calorie intake.

This comparative study investigated variations in food patterns across the seasons in rural Pakistan through assessing the changes in food variety, dietary diversity and calorie intake. It analyzed the situation using the primary information of 97 and 114 households surveyed in summer and winter respectively. Findings revealed a significant difference of households’ food variety, dietary diversity and calorie intake across the seasons. In the winter, households’ food basket was more diverse, showing 30%, 13%, and 8% rise in food variety, dietary diversity, and caloric intake, respectively, due mainly to the changes in food choices in winter. Rural households preferred to consume items from nutritious food groups (i.e., dried fruits and nuts, oilseeds, and locally preserved foods) during the severe cold weather. However, they did not substitute significantly the items from basic food groups (i.e., cereals, vegetables and legumes, tubers, and dairy products), with those belonging to nutritious groups. Based on findings, it is concluded that food variety, dietary diversity and calorie intake fluctuate across the seasons, therefore surveys of dietary patterns and calorie intake in one particular season may not be reliable, and food security status of households may not be generalized on the basis of one season survey.

Farmers versus nature: managing disaster risks at farm level

Farmers have number of options available in managing disaster risks at farm and many of them utilize these risk management tools simultaneously. However, previous studies have ignored the correlation among the risk management adoption decisions. This study, therefore, aimed at investigating factors affecting the adoption of off-farm diversification and agricultural credit to manage catastrophic risks while taking into account the contemporaneous correlation in the decisions to adopt the two risk management tools simultaneously. Bivariate and multinomial probit approaches are applied to data collected from four districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in Pakistan. Findings revealed a strong correlation between the decisions to adopt the two risk management tools and conclude that adopting one risk management tool may induce farmers to adopt the other tool at the same time. Moreover, socioeconomic characteristics, losses due to natural disasters, farmers’ risk perceptions and their risk attitude play significant role in shaping their decisions of adopting risk management tools.

Forecasting Wheat Production Gaps to Assess the State of Future Food Security in Pakistan

Forecasting Wheat Production Gaps to Assess the State of Future Food Security in Pakistan Providing production forecasts of main food commodities to food security planners may lead to improved production planning decisions in any country or region. Cognizant of this fact, this study forecasts the future wheat production gaps (PG) in Pakistan for 13 years (2013-2025) at two different levels of consumption, i.e. 125 kg/capita/annum and 150 kg/capita/annum.

Cotton production under risk: a simultaneous adoption of risk coping tools

Agricultural production explicitly involves dealing with multiple risks, often simultaneously, and applying risk management strategies contemporaneously. However, farmers’ behavior of concurrent adoption of multiple risk management tools was ignored in previous studies and formed the rationale for this research. This study was designed to assess the effect of socioeconomic factors, farmers’ risk perceptions, the production management technologies, and access to information and credit on the adoption of price, climate, biological, and financial risk management strategies. The potential for simultaneous adoption of these strategies was also hypothesized and evaluated. Allowing for prospective correlation between the risk management strategies, a multivariate probit model was used on 302 randomly selected cotton farmers from Punjab province of Pakistan using multistage random sampling. The research findings established the simultaneous adoption of the four risk management strategies and that the adoption of one strategy encourages the farmer to adopt other strategy(ies). Significant factors in the adoption of various risk management strategies were found to be education, farming experience, land ownership, farmers’ risk perceptions, the production management technologies, information access and credit access. The improvements in information access through quality extension services from the government and provision of alternative risk management options, including Crop Loan Insurance Scheme, are crucial to assist farmers in managing risks at farm level.

Farm risks and uncertainties: Sources, impacts and management

Owing to the variable economic and biophysical environment, agricultural activities are subjected to variety of risks and uncertainties. Our contemporary review of the previous literature distinguished two major types of risk in agriculture. First, business risk which include production, market, institutional and personal risks. Second, financial risks resulting from different methods of financing the farm business. The relative importance of these risk sources may depend on the geographical location, government policies and legislations, the presence of formal (state owned) and/or traditional risk coping tools, type of agricultural product etc. There is a wide array of risk management tools available to the farmers to manage their risks at farm level. The adoption of these risk management strategies are heavily influenced by farmers’ risk perceptions their attitude towards risk, farm and farm household characteristics and farmers’ access to publically provided services including agricultural credit and information. An insubstantial proportion of literature also revealed farmers’ behavior of simultaneous adoption of multiple risk coping tools in managing their farm risks and therefore suggesting future studies to investigate farmers’ decisions making process in context of simultaneous adoption of the available risk coping tools.

Status and determinants of small farming households' food security and role of market access in enhancing food security in rural Pakistan

In most of the developing countries, lack of resources and little market accessibility are among the major factors that affect small farming household food security. This study aims to investigate the status of small farming households’ food security, and its determinants including the role of market accessibility factors in enhancing food security at household level. In addition, this study also determines the households’ perception about different kinds of livelihoods risks. This study is based on a household survey of 576 households conducted through face-to-face interviews using structured interviews in Punjab, Pakistan. Food security status is calculated using dietary intake method. The study findings show that one-fourth of the households are food insecure. The study findings reveal that farm households perceive increase in food prices, crop diseases, lack of irrigation water and increase in health expenses as major livelihood risks. Further, the results of logistic regression show that family size, monthly income, food prices, health expenses and debt are main factors influencing the food security status of rural households. Furthermore, the market accessibility factors (road distance and transportation cost) do significantly affect the small farming household food security. The results suggest that local food security can be enhanced by creating off-farm employment opportunities, improved transportation facilities and road infrastructure.

Disaster risk management in agriculture: tragedies of the smallholders

Agriculture sector is exposed to a variety of risks and uncertainties which can lead to sizeable losses in crop yields and alter farm incomes. Risk management is, therefore, an essential element of the overall farm management process. Farmers have number of options in managing farm risks; however, smallholders, due to their small operations and limited financial capabilities, find it difficult to adopt sophisticated risk management strategies to overcome yield and income instabilities at farm level. This study is, therefore, designed to investigate the enabling environment for small farmers to manage climatic risks at farm level. A total of 330 sampled respondents from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan are randomly selected for the study using multistage sampling technique. Analysis of variance technique is employed to compare the risk management adoption decision of small, medium and large farmers. A post hoc analysis is also performed to highlight the difference in means and the magnitude of differences. The results indicate that smallholders have significantly lower access to credit (both formal and informal), formal information sources along with significantly higher perceptions of pest and diseases. Smallholders are also at the tail end in the adoption of precautionary savings and agricultural credit to manage climatic risk at farm level. The study urges for risk management policies particularly in favor of the small farmers and intervention in the existing information and credit provision programs to facilitate smallholders in managing farm risks.