Farzad Mostashari

The outbreak of West Nile virus infection in the New York City area in 1999.

BACKGROUND In late August 1999, an unusual cluster of cases of meningoencephalitis associated with muscle weakness was reported to the New York City Department of Health. The initial epidemiologic and environmental investigations suggested an arboviral cause. METHODS Active surveillance was implemented to identify patients hospitalized with viral encephalitis and meningitis. Cerebrospinal fluid, serum, and tissue specimens from patients with suspected cases underwent serologic and viral testing for evidence of arboviral infection. RESULTS Outbreak surveillance identified 59 patients who were hospitalized with West Nile virus infection in the New York City area during August and September of 1999. The median age of these patients was 71 years (range, 5 to 95). The overall attack rate of clinical West Nile virus infection was at least 6.5 cases per million population, and it increased sharply with age. Most of the patients (63 percent) had clinical signs of encephalitis; seven patients died (12 percent). Muscle weakness was documented in 27 percent of the patients and flaccid paralysis in 10 percent; in all of the latter, nerve conduction studies indicated an axonal polyneuropathy in 14 percent. An age of 75 years or older was an independent risk factor for death (relative risk adjusted for the presence or absence of diabetes mellitus, 8.5; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.2 to 59.1), as was the presence of diabetes mellitus (age-adjusted relative risk, 5.1; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.5 to 17.3). CONCLUSIONS This outbreak of West Nile meningoencephalitis in the New York City metropolitan area represents the first time this virus has been detected in the Western Hemisphere. Given the subsequent rapid spread of the virus, physicians along the eastern seaboard of the United States should consider West Nile virus infection in the differential diagnosis of encephalitis and viral meningitis during the summer months, especially in older patients and in those with muscle weakness.

A Space–Time Permutation Scan Statistic for Disease Outbreak Detection

Background The ability to detect disease outbreaks early is important in order to minimize morbidity and mortality through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures. Many national, state, and local health departments are launching disease surveillance systems with daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits, ambulance dispatch calls, or pharmacy sales for which population-at-risk information is unavailable or irrelevant. Methods and Findings We propose a prospective space–time permutation scan statistic for the early detection of disease outbreaks that uses only case numbers, with no need for population-at-risk data. It makes minimal assumptions about the time, geographical location, or size of the outbreak, and it adjusts for natural purely spatial and purely temporal variation. The new method was evaluated using daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits in New York City. Four of the five strongest signals were likely local precursors to citywide outbreaks due to rotavirus, norovirus, and influenza. The number of false signals was at most modest. Conclusion If such results hold up over longer study times and in other locations, the space–time permutation scan statistic will be an important tool for local and national health departments that are setting up early disease detection surveillance systems.

Trust and the acceptance of and adherence to antiretroviral therapy.

Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has resulted in reduced AIDS incidence and mortality. Socially marginalized individuals with HIV infection, particularly injection drug users (IDUs), have received less ART and derived less benefit than others. Little is known about the therapeutic process necessary to promote acceptance of and adherence to ART among marginalized HIV‐infected populations. We report on the correlates of both acceptance of and adherence to ART among HIV infected prisoners, most of whom are IDUs. Design: Using a cross‐sectional survey design within four ambulatory prison HIV clinics, 205 HIV‐infected prisoners eligible for ART were recruited between March and October 1996. Measurements: Detailed interviews were conducted that included personal characteristics, health status and beliefs, and validated standardized scales measuring depression, health locus of control, social desirability and trust in physician, medical institutions and society. Acceptance and adherence were documented by self‐report and validated for a subset by pharmacy review. Clinical information was obtained from standardized chart review. Adherence was defined as having taken ≥80% of ART. Results: The acceptance of (80%) and adherence to (84%) ART among this group of prisoners was high. Multiple regression models demonstrated that correlates of acceptance of and adherence to ART differed. Acceptance was associated with trust in physician (8% increase for each unit increase with trust in physician scale) and trust in HIV medications (threefold reduction for those mistrustful of medication). Side effects (OR = 0.09), social isolation (OR = 0.08), and complexity of the antiretroviral regimen (OR = 0.33) were associated with decreased adherence. The prevalence of health beliefs suggesting an adverse relationship between ART and drugs of abuse was high (range 59 to 77%). Adherence did not differ among those receiving directly observed therapy (82%) or self‐administration (85%). Conclusions: ART can be successfully administered within a correctional setting. Trust and the therapeutic relationship between patient and physician remain central in the ART initiation process. Characteristics of the therapeutic agents and the degree of social isolation predict adherence. These results may inform the design of interventions to improve both acceptance of and adherence to ART particularly among marginalized populations who have not derived full benefit from these potent new therapies.

Implementing Syndromic Surveillance: A Practical Guide Informed by the Early Experience

Syndromic surveillance refers to methods relying on detection of individual and population health indicators that are discernible before confirmed diagnoses are made. In particular, prior to the laboratory confirmation of an infectious disease, ill persons may exhibit behavioral patterns, symptoms, signs, or laboratory findings that can be tracked through a variety of data sources. Syndromic surveillance systems are being developed locally, regionally, and nationally. The efforts have been largely directed at facilitating the early detection of a covert bioterrorist attack, but the technology may also be useful for general public health, clinical medicine, quality improvement, patient safety, and research. This report, authored by developers and methodologists involved in the design and deployment of the first wave of syndromic surveillance systems, is intended to serve as a guide for informaticians, public health managers, and practitioners who are currently planning deployment of such systems in their regions.

Dead Bird Clusters as an Early Warning System for West Nile Virus Activity

An early warning system for West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks could provide a basis for targeted public education and surveillance activities as well as more timely larval and adult mosquito control. We adapted the spatial scan statistic for prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks, applied the results to data on dead birds reported from New York City in 2000, and reviewed its utility in providing an early warning of WNV activity in 2001. Prospective geographic cluster analysis of dead bird reports may provide early warning of increasing viral activity in birds and mosquitoes, allowing jurisdictions to triage limited mosquito-collection and laboratory resources and more effectively prevent human disease caused by the virus. This adaptation of the scan statistic could also be useful in other infectious disease surveillance systems, including that for bioterrorism.

Acceptance and adherence with antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected women in a correctional facility

We examined attitudinal and demographic correlates of antiretroviral acceptance and adherence among incarcerated HIV-infected women. Structured interviews were conducted with 102 HIV-infected female prisoners eligible for antiretroviral therapy. Three quarters of the women were currently taking antiretroviral agents, of whom 62% were adherent to therapy. Satisfaction was very high with the HIV care offered at the prison; 67% had been first offered antiretroviral agents while in prison. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed acceptance of the first offer of antiretroviral therapy to be associated with trust in medication safety, lower educational level, and non-black race. Current acceptance of therapy was associated with trust in the medications efficacy and safety. Medication adherence was correlated with the patient-physician relationship and presence of emotional supports. Nearly one half of these HIV-seropositive women were willing to take experimental HIV medications in prison. This was correlated with satisfaction with existing health care, the presence of HIV-related social supports, and perceived susceptibility to a worsening condition. Acceptance and adherence with antiretroviral agents appear to be significantly associated with trust in medications, trust in the health care system, and interpersonal relationships with physicians and peers. Development of models of care that encourage and support such relationships is essential for improving adherence to antiretroviral therapy, especially for populations that have historically been marginalized from mainstream medical care systems.

Adult Tobacco Use Levels After Intensive Tobacco Control Measures: New York City, 2002–2003

OBJECTIVES We sought to determine the impact of comprehensive tobacco control measures in New York City. METHODS In 2002, New York City implemented a tobacco control strategy of (1) increased cigarette excise taxes; (2) legal action that made virtually all work-places, including bars and restaurants, smoke free; (3) increased cessation services, including a large-scale free nicotine-patch program; (4) education; and (5) evaluation. The health department also began annual surveys on a broad array of health measures, including smoking. RESULTS From 2002 to 2003, smoking prevalence among New York City adults decreased by 11% (from 21.6% to 19.2%, approximately 140000 fewer smokers). Smoking declined among all age groups, race/ethnicities, and education levels; in both genders; among both US-born and foreign-born persons; and in all 5 boroughs. Increased taxation appeared to account for the largest proportion of the decrease; however, between 2002 and 2003 the proportion of cigarettes purchased outside New York City doubled, reducing the effective price increase by a third. CONCLUSIONS Concerted local action can sharply reduce smoking prevalence. However, further progress will require national action, particularly to increase cigarette taxes, reduce cigarette tax evasion, expand education and cessation services, and limit tobacco marketing.

Monitoring the Impact of Influenza by Age: Emergency Department Fever and Respiratory Complaint Surveillance in New York City

Background The importance of understanding age when estimating the impact of influenza on hospitalizations and deaths has been well described, yet existing surveillance systems have not made adequate use of age-specific data. Monitoring influenza-related morbidity using electronic health data may provide timely and detailed insight into the age-specific course, impact and epidemiology of seasonal drift and reassortment epidemic viruses. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of emergency department (ED) chief complaint data for measuring influenza-attributable morbidity by age and by predominant circulating virus. Methods and Findings We analyzed electronically reported ED fever and respiratory chief complaint and viral surveillance data in New York City (NYC) during the 2001–2002 through 2005–2006 influenza seasons, and inferred dominant circulating viruses from national surveillance reports. We estimated influenza-attributable impact as observed visits in excess of a model-predicted baseline during influenza periods, and epidemic timing by threshold and cross correlation. We found excess fever and respiratory ED visits occurred predominantly among school-aged children (8.5 excess ED visits per 1,000 children aged 5–17 y) with little or no impact on adults during the early-2002 B/Victoria-lineage epidemic; increased fever and respiratory ED visits among children younger than 5 y during respiratory syncytial virus-predominant periods preceding epidemic influenza; and excess ED visits across all ages during the 2003–2004 (9.2 excess visits per 1,000 population) and 2004–2005 (5.2 excess visits per 1,000 population) A/H3N2 Fujian-lineage epidemics, with the relative impact shifted within and between seasons from younger to older ages. During each influenza epidemic period in the study, ED visits were increased among school-aged children, and each epidemic peaked among school-aged children before other impacted age groups. Conclusions Influenza-related morbidity in NYC was highly age- and strain-specific. The impact of reemerging B/Victoria-lineage influenza was focused primarily on school-aged children born since the virus was last widespread in the US, while epidemic A/Fujian-lineage influenza affected all age groups, consistent with a novel antigenic variant. The correspondence between predominant circulating viruses and excess ED visits, hospitalizations, and deaths shows that excess fever and respiratory ED visits provide a reliable surrogate measure of incident influenza-attributable morbidity. The highly age-specific impact of influenza by subtype and strain suggests that greater age detail be incorporated into ongoing surveillance. Influenza morbidity surveillance using electronic data currently available in many jurisdictions can provide timely and representative information about the age-specific epidemiology of circulating influenza viruses.

A National Action Plan To Support Consumer Engagement Via E-Health

Patient-centered care is considered one pillar of a high-performing, high-quality health care system. It is a key component of many efforts to transform care and achieve better population health. Expansion of health information technology and consumer e-health tools--electronic tools and services such as secure e-mail messaging between patients and providers, or mobile health apps--have created new opportunities for individuals to participate actively in monitoring and directing their health and health care. The Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology in the Department of Health and Human Services leads the strategy to increase electronic access to health information, support the development of tools that enable people to take action with that information, and shift attitudes related to the traditional roles of patients and providers. In this article we review recent evidence in support of consumer e-health and present the federal strategy to promote advances in consumer e-health to increase patient engagement, improve individual health, and achieve broader health care system improvements.

Effectiveness of a large-scale distribution programme of free nicotine patches: a prospective evaluation

BACKGROUND After an increase in cigarette taxes and implementation of smoke-free workplace legislation, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, the New York State Department of Health, and the Roswell Park Cancer Institute undertook large-scale distribution of free nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). We did a 6 month follow-up survey to assess the success of this programme in improving smoking cessation on a population basis. METHODS 34,090 eligible smokers who phoned a toll-free quitline were sent a 6-week course of nicotine patches (2 weeks each of 21 mg, 14 mg, and 7 mg per day). Brief follow-up counselling calls were attempted. At 6 months after treatment, we assessed smoking status of 1305 randomly sampled NRT recipients and a non-randomly selected comparison group of eligible smokers who, because of mailing errors, did not receive the treatment. NRT recipients were compared with local survey-derived data for heavy smokers in New York City. FINDINGS An estimated 5% of all adults in New York City who smoked ten cigarettes or more daily received NRT; most (64%) recipients were non-white, foreign-born, or resided in a low-income neighbourhood. Of individuals contacted at 6 months, more NRT recipients than comparison group members successfully quit smoking (33%vs 6%, p<0.0001), and this difference remained significant after adjustment for demographic factors and amount smoked (odds ratio 8.8, 95% CI 4.4-17.8). Highest quit rates were associated with those who were foreign born (87 [39%]), older than 65 years (40 [47%]), and smoked less than 20 cigarettes per day (116 [35%]). Those who received a counselling call were more likely to stop smoking than those who did not (246 [38%] vs 189 [27%], p=0.001). With the conservative assumption that every 6-month follow-up survey non-respondent continued to smoke, the stop rate among NRT recipients was 20%. At least 6038 successful quits were attributable to NRT receipt, and cost was 464 US dollars per quit. INTERPRETATION Easy access to cessation medication for diverse populations could help many more smokers to stop.