Faujdar Ram

Trends in selective abortions of girls in India: analysis of nationally representative birth histories from 1990 to 2005 and census data from 1991 to 2011

BACKGROUND Indias 2011 census revealed a growing imbalance between the numbers of girls and boys aged 0-6 years, which we postulate is due to increased prenatal sex determination with subsequent selective abortion of female fetuses. We aimed to establish the trends in sex ratio by birth order from 1990 to 2005 with three nationally representative surveys and to quantify the totals of selective abortions of girls with census cohort data. METHODS We assessed sex ratios by birth order in 0·25 million births in three rounds of the nationally representative National Family Health Survey covering the period from 1990 to 2005. We estimated totals of selective abortion of girls by assessing the birth cohorts of children aged 0-6 years in the 1991, 2001, and 2011 censuses. Our main statistic was the conditional sex ratio of second-order births after a firstborn girl and we used 3-year rolling weighted averages to test for trends, with differences between trends compared by linear regression. FINDINGS The conditional sex ratio for second-order births when the firstborn was a girl fell from 906 per 1000 boys (99% CI 798-1013) in 1990 to 836 (733-939) in 2005; an annual decline of 0·52% (p for trend=0·002). Declines were much greater in mothers with 10 or more years of education than in mothers with no education, and in wealthier households compared with poorer households. By contrast, we did not detect any significant declines in the sex ratio for second-order births if the firstborn was a boy, or for firstborns. Between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, more than twice the number of Indian districts (local administrative areas) showed declines in the child sex ratio as districts with no change or increases. After adjusting for excess mortality rates in girls, our estimates of number of selective abortions of girls rose from 0-2·0 million in the 1980s, to 1·2-4·1 million in the 1990s, and to 3·1-6·0 million in the 2000s. Each 1% decline in child sex ratio at ages 0-6 years implied 1·2-3·6 million more selective abortions of girls. Selective abortions of girls totalled about 4·2-12·1 million from 1980-2010, with a greater rate of increase in the 1990s than in the 2000s. INTERPRETATION Selective abortion of girls, especially for pregnancies after a firstborn girl, has increased substantially in India. Most of Indias population now live in states where selective abortion of girls is common. FUNDING US National Institutes of Health, Canadian Institute of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, and Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute.

Indigenous and tribal peoples' health (The Lancet-Lowitja Institute Global Collaboration): a population study.

BACKGROUND International studies of the health of Indigenous and tribal peoples provide important public health insights. Reliable data are required for the development of policy and health services. Previous studies document poorer outcomes for Indigenous peoples compared with benchmark populations, but have been restricted in their coverage of countries or the range of health indicators. Our objective is to describe the health and social status of Indigenous and tribal peoples relative to benchmark populations from a sample of countries. METHODS Collaborators with expertise in Indigenous health data systems were identified for each country. Data were obtained for population, life expectancy at birth, infant mortality, low and high birthweight, maternal mortality, nutritional status, educational attainment, and economic status. Data sources consisted of governmental data, data from non-governmental organisations such as UNICEF, and other research. Absolute and relative differences were calculated. FINDINGS Our data (23 countries, 28 populations) provide evidence of poorer health and social outcomes for Indigenous peoples than for non-Indigenous populations. However, this is not uniformly the case, and the size of the rate difference varies. We document poorer outcomes for Indigenous populations for: life expectancy at birth for 16 of 18 populations with a difference greater than 1 year in 15 populations; infant mortality rate for 18 of 19 populations with a rate difference greater than one per 1000 livebirths in 16 populations; maternal mortality in ten populations; low birthweight with the rate difference greater than 2% in three populations; high birthweight with the rate difference greater than 2% in one population; child malnutrition for ten of 16 populations with a difference greater than 10% in five populations; child obesity for eight of 12 populations with a difference greater than 5% in four populations; adult obesity for seven of 13 populations with a difference greater than 10% in four populations; educational attainment for 26 of 27 populations with a difference greater than 1% in 24 populations; and economic status for 15 of 18 populations with a difference greater than 1% in 14 populations. INTERPRETATION We systematically collated data across a broader sample of countries and indicators than done in previous studies. Taking into account the UN Sustainable Development Goals, we recommend that national governments develop targeted policy responses to Indigenous health, improving access to health services, and Indigenous data within national surveillance systems. FUNDING The Lowitja Institute.

Fast track — ArticlesTrends in selective abortions of girls in India: analysis of nationally representative birth histories from 1990 to 2005 and census data from 1991 to 2011

BACKGROUND Indias 2011 census revealed a growing imbalance between the numbers of girls and boys aged 0-6 years, which we postulate is due to increased prenatal sex determination with subsequent selective abortion of female fetuses. We aimed to establish the trends in sex ratio by birth order from 1990 to 2005 with three nationally representative surveys and to quantify the totals of selective abortions of girls with census cohort data. METHODS We assessed sex ratios by birth order in 0·25 million births in three rounds of the nationally representative National Family Health Survey covering the period from 1990 to 2005. We estimated totals of selective abortion of girls by assessing the birth cohorts of children aged 0-6 years in the 1991, 2001, and 2011 censuses. Our main statistic was the conditional sex ratio of second-order births after a firstborn girl and we used 3-year rolling weighted averages to test for trends, with differences between trends compared by linear regression. FINDINGS The conditional sex ratio for second-order births when the firstborn was a girl fell from 906 per 1000 boys (99% CI 798-1013) in 1990 to 836 (733-939) in 2005; an annual decline of 0·52% (p for trend=0·002). Declines were much greater in mothers with 10 or more years of education than in mothers with no education, and in wealthier households compared with poorer households. By contrast, we did not detect any significant declines in the sex ratio for second-order births if the firstborn was a boy, or for firstborns. Between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, more than twice the number of Indian districts (local administrative areas) showed declines in the child sex ratio as districts with no change or increases. After adjusting for excess mortality rates in girls, our estimates of number of selective abortions of girls rose from 0-2·0 million in the 1980s, to 1·2-4·1 million in the 1990s, and to 3·1-6·0 million in the 2000s. Each 1% decline in child sex ratio at ages 0-6 years implied 1·2-3·6 million more selective abortions of girls. Selective abortions of girls totalled about 4·2-12·1 million from 1980-2010, with a greater rate of increase in the 1990s than in the 2000s. INTERPRETATION Selective abortion of girls, especially for pregnancies after a firstborn girl, has increased substantially in India. Most of Indias population now live in states where selective abortion of girls is common. FUNDING US National Institutes of Health, Canadian Institute of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, and Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute.

Associations between Early Marriage and Young Women's Marital and Reproductive Health Outcomes: Evidence from India

CONTEXT Little evidence from India is available regarding the ways in which early marriage may compromise young womens lives and their reproductive health and choices. METHODS Data from 8,314 married women aged 20-24 living in five Indian states, obtained from a subnationally representative study of transitions experienced by youth, were used to compare marital, reproductive and other outcomes between young women who had married before age 18 and those who had married later. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify associations between timing of marriage and the outcomes of interest. RESULTS Young women who had married at age 18 or older were more likely than those who had married before age 18 to have been involved in planning their marriage (odds ratio, 1.4), to reject wife beating (1.2), to have used contraceptives to delay their first pregnancy (1.4) and to have had their first birth in a health facility (1.4). They were less likely than women who had married early to have experienced physical violence (0.6) or sexual violence (0.7) in their marriage or to have had a miscarriage or stillbirth (0.6). CONCLUSIONS Findings underscore the need to build support among youth and their families for delaying marriage, to enforce existing laws on the minimum age at marriage and to encourage school, health and other authorities to support young women in negotiating with their parents to delay marriage.

Neonatal, 1–59 month, and under-5 mortality in 597 Indian districts, 2001 to 2012: estimates from national demographic and mortality surveys

BACKGROUND India has the largest number of child deaths of any country in the world, and has wide local variation in under-5 mortality. Worldwide achievement of the UN 2015 Millennium Development Goal for under-5 mortality (MDG 4) will depend on progress in the subregions of India. We aimed to estimate neonatal, 1-59 months, and overall under-5 mortality by sex for 597 Indian districts and to assess whether India is on track to achieve MDG 4. METHODS We divided the 2012 UN sex-specific birth and mortality totals for India into state totals using relative birth rates and mortality from recent demographic surveys of 24 million people, and divided state totals into totals for the 597 districts using 3 million birth histories. We then split the results into neonatal mortality and 1-59 month mortality using data for 109,000 deaths in children younger than 5 years from six national surveys. We compared results with the 2001 census for each district. FINDINGS Under-5 mortality fell at a mean rate of 3·7% (IQR 3·2-4·9) per year between 2001 and 2012. 222 (37%) of 597 districts are on track to achieve the MDG 4 of 38 deaths in children younger than 5 years per 1000 livebirths by 2015, but an equal number (222 [37%]) will achieve MDG 4 only after 2020. These 222 lagging districts are home to 41% of Indias livebirths and 56% of all deaths in children younger than 5 years. More districts lag behind the relevant goal for neonatal mortality (251 [42%]) than for 1-59 month mortality (197 [33%]). Just 81 (14%) districts account for 37% of deaths in children younger than 5 years nationally. Female mortality at ages 1-59 months exceeded male mortality by 25% in 303 districts in nearly all states of India, totalling about 74,000 excess deaths in girls. INTERPRETATION At current rates of progress, MDG 4 will be met by India around 2020-by the richer states around 2015 and by the poorer states around 2023. Accelerated progress to reduce mortality during the neonatal period and at ages 1-59 months is needed in most Indian districts. FUNDING Disease Control Priorities 3, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, US National Institutes of Health.

Results of a national mass media campaign in India to warn against the dangers of smokeless tobacco consumption

Objective Smokeless tobacco consumption in India is a significant source of morbidity and mortality. In order to educate smokeless tobacco users about the health harms of smokeless tobacco and to denormalise tobacco usage and encourage quitting, a national television and radio mass media campaign targeted at smokeless tobacco users was aired for 6 weeks during November and December 2009. Methods The campaign was evaluated with a nationally representative household survey of smokeless tobacco users (n=2898). The effect of campaign awareness was assessed with logistic regression analysis. Results The campaign affected smokeless tobacco users as intended: 63% of smokeless-only users and 72% of dual users (ie, those who consumed both smoking and smokeless forms) recalled the campaign advertisement, primarily through television delivery. The vast majority (over 70%) of those aware of the campaign said that it made them stop and think, was relevant to their lives and provided new information. 75% of smokeless-only users and 77% of dual users said that it made them feel concerned about their habit. Campaign awareness was associated with better knowledge, more negative attitudes towards smokeless tobacco and greater cessation-oriented intentions and behaviours among smokeless tobacco users. Conclusions Social marketing campaigns that utilise mass media are feasible and efficacious interventions for tobacco control in India. Implications for future mass media tobacco control programming in India are discussed.

Comparison of physician-certified verbal autopsy with computer-coded verbal autopsy for cause of death assignment in hospitalized patients in low- and middle-income countries: systematic review.

BackgroundComputer-coded verbal autopsy (CCVA) methods to assign causes of death (CODs) for medically unattended deaths have been proposed as an alternative to physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA). We conducted a systematic review of 19 published comparison studies (from 684 evaluated), most of which used hospital-based deaths as the reference standard. We assessed the performance of PCVA and five CCVA methods: Random Forest, Tariff, InterVA, King-Lu, and Simplified Symptom Pattern.MethodsThe reviewed studies assessed methods’ performance through various metrics: sensitivity, specificity, and chance-corrected concordance for coding individual deaths, and cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) error and CSMF accuracy at the population level. These results were summarized into means, medians, and ranges.ResultsThe 19 studies ranged from 200 to 50,000 deaths per study (total over 116,000 deaths). Sensitivity of PCVA versus hospital-assigned COD varied widely by cause, but showed consistently high specificity. PCVA and CCVA methods had an overall chance-corrected concordance of about 50% or lower, across all ages and CODs. At the population level, the relative CSMF error between PCVA and hospital-based deaths indicated good performance for most CODs. Random Forest had the best CSMF accuracy performance, followed closely by PCVA and the other CCVA methods, but with lower values for InterVA-3.ConclusionsThere is no single best-performing coding method for verbal autopsies across various studies and metrics. There is little current justification for CCVA to replace PCVA, particularly as physician diagnosis remains the worldwide standard for clinical diagnosis on live patients. Further assessments and large accessible datasets on which to train and test combinations of methods are required, particularly for rural deaths without medical attention.

Inequalities in advice provided by public health workers to women during antenatal sessions in rural India

Objectives Studies have widely documented the socioeconomic inequalities in maternal and child health related outcomes in developing countries including India. However, there is limited research on the inequalities in advice provided by public health workers on maternal and child health during antenatal visits. This paper investigates the inequalities in advice provided by public health workers to women during antenatal visits in rural India. Methods and Findings The District Level Household Survey (2007–08) was used to compute rich-poor ratios and concentration indices. Binary logistic regressions were used to investigate inequalities in advice provided by public health workers. The dependent variables comprised the advice provided on seven essential components of maternal and child health care. A significant proportion of pregnant women who attended at least four ANC sessions were not advised on these components during their antenatal sessions. Only 51%–72% of the pregnant women were advised on at least one of the components. Moreover, socioeconomic inequalities in providing advice were significant and the provision of advice concentrated disproportionately among the rich. Inequalities were highest in the case of advice on family planning methods. Advice on breastfeeding was least unequal. Public health workers working in lower level health facilities were significantly less likely than their counterparts in the higher level health facilities to provide specific advice. Conclusion A significant proportion of women were not advised on recommended components of maternal and child health in rural India. Moreover, there were enormous socioeconomic inequalities. The findings of this study raise questions about the capacity of the public health care system in providing equitable services in India. The Government of India must focus on training and capacity building of the public health workers in communication skills so that they can deliver appropriate and recommended advice to all clients, irrespective of their socioeconomic status.

Sterilization regret among married women in India: implications for the Indian National Family Planning Program

CONTEXT In India, female sterilization accounts for 66% of contraceptive use, and age at sterilization is declining. It is likely that some women regret having been sterilized, but data on the prevalence of, and the social and economic correlates of, regret at the national level are insufficient. METHODS Data for analysis came from 30,999 sterilized women aged 15-49 interviewed in the 2005-2006 Indian National Family Health Survey. Logistic regression analyses and Wald tests were used to identify the social and demographic characteristics associated with sterilization regret. RESULTS Nationally, 5% of sterilized women aged 15-49 reported sterilization regret. Women sterilized at age 30 or older were less likely than women sterilized before age 25 to express regret (odds ratio, 0.8). Compared with women having only sons, those who had only daughters were more likely to express regret (1.3), while those having both sons and daughters were less likely to express regret (0.8). Women who had experienced child loss had higher odds of reporting regret than women who had not (for one child lost, 1.6; for two or more children lost, 2.0). CONCLUSIONS Given the large proportion of women undergoing sterilization, the potential numbers experiencing regret are considerable. If age at sterilization continues to decline, sterilization regret is likely to increase. Encouraging couples to delay sterilization and increasing the availability of highly effective reversible contraceptives are options that India may consider to avert sterilization regret.

Performance of four computer-coded verbal autopsy methods for cause of death assignment compared with physician coding on 24,000 deaths in low- and middle-income countries

BackgroundPhysician-coded verbal autopsy (PCVA) is the most widely used method to determine causes of death (CODs) in countries where medical certification of death is uncommon. Computer-coded verbal autopsy (CCVA) methods have been proposed as a faster and cheaper alternative to PCVA, though they have not been widely compared to PCVA or to each other.MethodsWe compared the performance of open-source random forest, open-source tariff method, InterVA-4, and the King-Lu method to PCVA on five datasets comprising over 24,000 verbal autopsies from low- and middle-income countries. Metrics to assess performance were positive predictive value and partial chance-corrected concordance at the individual level, and cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy and cause-specific mortality fraction error at the population level.ResultsThe positive predictive value for the most probable COD predicted by the four CCVA methods averaged about 43% to 44% across the datasets. The average positive predictive value improved for the top three most probable CODs, with greater improvements for open-source random forest (69%) and open-source tariff method (68%) than for InterVA-4 (62%). The average partial chance-corrected concordance for the most probable COD predicted by the open-source random forest, open-source tariff method and InterVA-4 were 41%, 40% and 41%, respectively, with better results for the top three most probable CODs. Performance generally improved with larger datasets. At the population level, the King-Lu method had the highest average cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy across all five datasets (91%), followed by InterVA-4 (72% across three datasets), open-source random forest (71%) and open-source tariff method (54%).ConclusionsOn an individual level, no single method was able to replicate the physician assignment of COD more than about half the time. At the population level, the King-Lu method was the best method to estimate cause-specific mortality fractions, though it does not assign individual CODs. Future testing should focus on combining different computer-coded verbal autopsy tools, paired with PCVA strengths. This includes using open-source tools applied to larger and varied datasets (especially those including a random sample of deaths drawn from the population), so as to establish the performance for age- and sex-specific CODs.