Federico Nucera

Carry Trades and the Performance of Currency Hedge Funds

We investigate the performance and risk of currency hedge funds using a large and unique consolidated currency hedge fund dataset. We find that a substantial number of hedge funds generate returns that exceed foreign exchange risk premia obtained through carry trades. The best alpha-generating funds exhibit a performance that persists over a one-year horizon. This performance persistence is mostly due to compensation for currency risk-taking as there is no strong evidence of remuneration for active management. The results are robust to biases affecting hedge fund returns, alternative carry trade benchmarks and different methodologies used to correct for sample variability.

The co-movement between sovereign and bank credit risk during the financial crisis: the case of the Euro Area

We investigate the comovement between sovereign and bank credit riskin the Euro area over the period 2008-2010. We construct two synthetic credit risk measures of the European sovereign and banking sectors that can be used for macro-prudential supervision. We estimate a Vector error-correction model and we obtain empirical evidence of a cointegration relationship between sovereign and bank credit risk. Moreover, we find that deviations from this equilibrium relationship are adjusted through the banking sector. Finally, impulse response functions show that it is possible to distinguish between a permanent sovereign shock and a transitory banking shock.