Felicjan Rydzak

Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks

In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale.

Exploring resilience towards risks in eoperations in the oil and gas industry

The transition to eOperations in the Norwegian oil and gas industry is expected to yield up to 30% reduction in costs and 10% increase in production. But new information security risks are introduced by substituting traditional offshore operations like drilling, production, delivery, etc, mostly locally operated at the offshore platforms with increasing remote onshore operation via computer networks. In eOperations, security incidents can have serious safety and performance implications. Using a generic risk matrix from case studies and a conceptual system dynamics model we explore policies for resource allocation to production and to security/safety. The simulation model allows studying the resilience of the system depending on management policies and incidents as represented in the risk matrix. We show that there is a region where the system behaviour is very sensitive to changes in resource allocation and to incidents.

Valuing the Potential Impacts of GEOSS: A Systems Dynamics Approach

Global earth observations are perceived as instrumental to attaining sustainable development goals. Methods to assess the long-run socioeconomic benefits of the emerging global Earth observation system of systems (GEOSS) as an integrated multisensor infrastructure have been missing to date. This chapter presents a systems dynamics approach to assess the effect of improvements in Earth observations across the nine societal benefit areas of the Group on Earth Observation (GEO). Two types of integration are assessed with the proposed model structure: (1) measuring benefits in an integrated assessment environment (e.g., improved weather forecasting through better measurement of cloud properties could lead to benefits in the agriculture, energy and water sectors); and (2) measuring benefits of an integrated observing system (e.g., in areas with high cloud cover, improvements in the resolution of optical sensors will lead to benefits only if linked to supplementary observing systems such a radar or ground surveys). The benefits from integration relate mostly to economies of scope on both the observation and benefit system sides. Cost reduction from economies of scale are derived from a global or large scale observing system vis-a-vis the currently prevailing patchwork system of national or regional observing systems. Results indicate that the total system benefits of GEOSS are usually orders of magnitude higher than their costs. Benefits are also policy dependent and tend to increase with the degree of implementation of mainly international environmental agreements.

Experimental Exploration of Decision Making in Production-inventory System

Despite availability of advanced decision aids, manufacturing managers should master basic control tasks within production systems. Still, there is substantial evidence that even highly educated and experienced practitioners mismanage even very simple production-inventory systems. We report an experimental study investigating strategies in a simple productioninventory control task. The study was conducted using an interactive computer simulator. Consistent with previous observations, the subjects failed to execute a satisfactory control in the first trial. Most, however, learned to manage the system as they gained experience. Application of single subject experimental design with think-aloud protocol and debriefing interviews allowed to identify strategies followed by the subjects. The paper reports on the key results of the study, discussing its implications for the production management research and practice.

Los posibles escenarios energéticos con vistas al cumplimiento del Acuerdo de París

Fallas Henriquez, A., Molina-Murillo, S. 2017. Methodological proposal to quantify and to compensate the agroecosystem services generated by the good agricultural practices of small-farmers. Ecosistemas 26(3): 89-102. Doi.: 10.7818/ECOS.2017.26-3.11 A diversified and less intensive management of agricultural systems produces agroecosystem services that are often not estimated nor compensated in developing countries. The main objective of this study was to create a tool that allows quantification of agroecosystemic services (SAgro) generated in agroforestry peasant farms, and additionally estimate compensation values. Following an initial test in 2013 on 10 farms, an important bibliographical review was carried out, the consultation of experts, and the evaluation in 2015 of 50 farms at the national level, most of them members of the National Agroforestry Union (UNAFOR) of Costa Rica. As a result, a tool was developed to measure in an agile, flexible and economical way the ecosystem services generated by good agricultural practices produced by small producers (peasants) both for their agricultural system as well as the forest system. We also found that the size of farms is not necessarily the determining factor for the production of agroecosystem services, but rather the type of management practices and investments made. In this process, it was estimated that with an average compensation of US

The Value of Global Earth Observations

271.6 per agricultural hectare per year, the production or maintenance of agroecosystem services could be encouraged through good agricultural practices.

Possible pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks as agreed in Paris COP21

Humankind has never been so populous, technically equipped, and economically and culturally integrated as it is today. In the twenty-first century, societies are confronted with a multitude of challenges in their efforts to manage the Earth system.

New feed sources key to ambitious climate targets

A zero balance between the emissions and capture by the earth sinks of CO2 with a maximum rise of Temperature of 1.5 oC with respect to the pre-industrial period was established by Paris COP21 as the global objective by the end of this century. The accomplishment of this objective is uncertain mostly because it was left to the responsibility of each estate. We have calculated the possible evolution of CO2 emissions along this century and the possible final values of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature under four different scenarios: BAU (Business as usual) with a continuation of the current trends of economic development, energy production and soil uses, and with a year increment of renewable energies of 4%; FF (fossil fuel) with fossil energies representing 90% of total global production and with a year increment of renewable energies of 2.2%; RE-S (renewable-slow) with renewable energies growing 4.4% per year; and RE-F (renewable-fast) renewable energies growing 5% per year. The values of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ppm) and Temperature (oC) increases would be 684-743 and 3.1-3.3 (BAU), 749-823 and 3.4-3.6 (FC), 633-686 and 2.9-3.1 (RE-S) and 532-563 and 2.5-2.6 (RE-F) respectively. Therefore in none of these scenarios the objectives of the COP21 would be accomplished. This accomplishment would only be possible if the technologies of CO2 capture in the electric power plants would complement the RE-F scenario. Only combining the RE-F scenario with the application of a technology to absorb 80% of the CO2 emissions of the electric power plant, levels of 328-363 ppm and an increase of 1.2-1.4 oC could be achieved, and thus the COP21 objectives could be accomplished.