Felix Akpojene Ogbo

The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Importance Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use. Objective To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an “other” group that encompasses residual causes. Design, Settings, and Participants Mortality was estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs. Main Outcomes and Measures Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year. Results There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and −8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies. Conclusions and Relevance Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts.

Diarrhoea and Suboptimal Feeding Practices in Nigeria: Evidence from the National Household Surveys.

BACKGROUND Globally, Nigeria has the largest burden of infectious diseases (including diarrhoea). Optimal feeding practices have been well-documented to protect against diarrhoea in other contexts; but this benefit has not been broadly studied in Nigeria. The study aimed to examine the association between diarrhoea and childhood feeding practices to provide country-specific evidence. METHOD Data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey for the period spanning 1999-2013 were used. Prevalence of diarrhoea by infant and young child feeding indicators was estimated, and the association between diarrhoea and childhood feeding indicators was examined using multilevel regression analyses. RESULTS Prevalence of diarrhoea was higher among children whose mothers did not initiate breast feeding within the first hour of birth, infants who were not exclusively breastfed, and infants who were prematurely introduced to complementary foods. Early initiation of breast feeding was significantly associated with lower risk of diarrhoea (RR 0.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63, 0.74). Exclusively breastfed infants were less likely to develop diarrhoea compared to non-exclusively breastfed infants (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44, 0.86). Predominant breast feeding was significantly associated with a lower risk of diarrhoea (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.54, 0.80). Bottle feeding and introduction of complementary foods were associated with a higher risk of diarrhoea. CONCLUSION Early initiation of breast feeding as well as exclusive and predominant breast feeding protect against diarrhoea in Nigeria, while bottle feeding and introduction of complementary foods were risk factors for diarrhoea. Community- and facility-based initiatives are needed to improve feeding practices, and to reduce diarrhoea prevalence in Nigeria.

Trends in complementary feeding indicators in Nigeria, 2003-2013.

Objective The study aimed to examine secular trends and determinants of changes in complementary feeding indicators in Nigeria. Design, setting and participants Data on 79 953 children aged 6–23 months were obtained from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) for the period spanning 2003–2013. The surveys used a stratified two-stage cluster sample of eligible mothers aged 15–49 years from the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Trends in complementary feeding indicators and socioeconomic, health service and individual characteristics including factors associated with complementary feeding indicators were examined using multilevel logistic regression analyses. Results Minimum dietary diversity for children aged 6–23 months worsened from 26% in 2003 to 16% in 2013. Minimum meal frequency improved from 43% in 2003 to 56% in 2013 and minimum acceptable diet worsened from 11% to 9%. Among educated mothers, there was a decreasing prevalence of the introduction of solid, semisolid and soft foods in infants aged 6–8 months (67% in 2003 to 57% in 2013); minimum dietary diversity (33% in 2003 to 24% in 2013) and minimum acceptable diet (13% in 2003 to 8% in 2013). Mothers with a higher education level and mothers who reported more health service contacts were more likely to meet the minimum dietary diversity. Similarly, the odds for minimum acceptable diet were higher among mothers from higher socioeconomic status groups and mothers who reported frequent health services use. Conclusions Complementary feeding practices in Nigeria declined over the study period and are below the expected levels required to ensure adequate growth and development of Nigerian children. National policies and programmes that ensure sustainability of projects post-MDGs and higher health service coverage for mothers, including community-based education initiatives, are proposed to improve complementary feeding practices among Nigerian mothers.

The impact of antenatal depression on perinatal outcomes in Australian women

Background In Australia, there is limited evidence on the impact of antenatal depression on perinatal outcomes. This study investigates the association between maternal depressive symptoms during pregnancy and key perinatal outcomes, including birth weight, gestational age at birth, breastfeeding indicators and postnatal depressive symptoms. Method A retrospective cohort of mothers (N = 17,564) of all infants born in public health facilities within South Western Sydney Local Health District and Sydney Local Health District in 2014, in the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, was enumerated from routinely collected antenatal data to investigate the risk of adverse perinatal outcomes associated with maternal depressive symptoms during pregnancy. Antenatal depressive symptoms were measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Logistic regression models that adjusted for confounders were conducted to determine associations between antenatal depressive symptoms and low birth weight, early gestational age at birth (<37 weeks), breast feeding indicators and postnatal depressive symptoms. Results The prevalence of maternal depressive symptoms during pregnancy was 7.0% in the cohort, and was significantly associated with postnatal depressive symptoms [Adjusted Odd Ratios (AOR) = 6.4, 95% CI: 4.8–8.7, P<0.001]. Antenatal depressive symptoms was associated with a higher odds of low birth weight [AOR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.2–2.3, P = 0.003] and a gestational age at birth of <37 weeks [AOR = 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1–1.7, P = 0.018] compared to women who reported lower EPDS scores in antenatal period. Antenatal depressive symptoms were not strongly associated with non-exclusive breast feeding in the early postnatal period. Conclusion Maternal depressive symptoms in the antenatal period are strongly associated with postnatal depressive symptoms and adverse perinatal outcomes in Australian infants. Early identification of antenatal and postnatal depressive symptoms, and referral for appropriate management could benefit not only the mother’s mental health, but also the infant’s health and development.

Infant feeding practices and diarrhoea in sub-Saharan African countries with high diarrhoea mortality

Background The impacts of optimal infant feeding practices on diarrhoea have been documented in some developing countries, but not in countries with high diarrhoea mortality as reported by the World Health Organisation/United Nations Children’s Fund. We aimed to investigate the association between infant feeding practices and diarrhoea in sub-Saharan African countries with high diarrhoea mortality. Method The study used the most recent Demographic and Health Survey datasets collected in nine sub-Saharan African countries with high diarrhoea mortality, namely: Burkina Faso (2010, N = 9,733); Demographic Republic of Congo (2013; N = 10,458); Ethiopia (2013, N = 7,251); Kenya (2014, N = 14,034); Mali (2013, N = 6,365); Niger (2013, N = 7,235); Nigeria (2013, N = 18,539); Tanzania (2010, N = 5,013); and Uganda (2010, N = 4,472). Multilevel logistic regression models that adjusted for cluster and sampling weights were used to investigate the association between infant feeding practices and diarrhoea in these nine African countries. Results Diarrhoea prevalence was lower among children whose mothers practiced early initiation of breastfeeding, exclusive and predominant breastfeeding. Early initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding were significantly associated with lower risk of diarrhoea (OR = 0.81; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77–0.85, P<0.001 and OR = 0.50; 95%CI: 0.43–0.57, respectively). In contrast, introduction of complementary foods (OR = 1.31; 95%CI: 1.14–1.50) and continued breastfeeding at one year (OR = 1.27; 95%CI: 1.05–1.55) were significantly associated with a higher risk of diarrhoea. Conclusion Early initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding are protective of diarrhoea in sub-Saharan African countries with high diarrhoea mortality. To reduce diarrhoea mortality and also achieve the health-related sustainable development goals in sub-Saharan African, an integrated, multi-agency strategic partnership within each country is needed to improve optimal infant feeding practices.

Determinants of trends in breast-feeding indicators in Nigeria 1999-2013.

OBJECTIVE The present study aimed to examine the trends and differentials in key breast-feeding indicators in Nigeria for the period 1999-2013. DESIGN Longitudinal study of trends (1999-2013) in optimal feeding practices using a series of population-based Nigerian Demographic and Health Surveys. Trends in socio-economic, health service and individual characteristics associated with key breast-feeding indicators were examined using multilevel regression analyses. SETTING Nigeria. SUBJECTS Children (n 88 152) aged under 24 months (n 8199 in 1999; n 7620 in 2003; n 33 385 in 2008; n 38 948 in 2013). RESULTS Among educated mothers, there was an increase in prevalence of exclusive breast-feeding (26% in 1999 to 30% in 2013) and predominant breast-feeding (27% in 1999 to 39% in 2013) compared with mothers with no schooling. A similar increasing trend was evident for mothers from wealthier households and mothers who had a higher frequency of health service access compared with mothers from poorer households and women who reported no health service access, respectively. Mothers with no schooling predominantly breast-fed, but the odds for bottle-feeding were higher among educated mothers and women from wealthier households. The odds for early initiation of breast-feeding were lower for mothers who reported no health service contacts and mothers of lower socio-economic status. CONCLUSIONS Significant increasing trends in key breast-feeding indicators were evident among mothers with higher socio-economic status and mothers who had more health service access in Nigeria. Broader national and sub-national policies that underpin nursing mothers in work environments and a comprehensive community-based approach are proposed to improve feeding practices in Nigeria.

Have policy responses in Nigeria resulted in improvements in infant and young child feeding practices in Nigeria

BackgroundNigeria initiated a range of programs and policies (from 1992 to 2005) to improve infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices. However, the prevalence of children fed in accordance with IYCF recommendations in Nigeria remains low. This paper presents time trends in IYCF practices in Nigeria for the period (1999–2013), and considers trends in the context of key national policy responses and initiatives.MethodsPrevalence and percentage change (including 95% confidence intervals) of IYCF indicators were investigated over the period 1999–2013 based on a total of 88,152 maternal responses from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys, (n = 8,199 in 1999; n = 7,620 in 2003; n = 33,385 in 2008 and n = 38,948 in 2013).ResultsEarly or timely initiation of breastfeeding decreased significantly by 4.3% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: −8.1, −0.5; p = 0.0280 for the period (1999–2013); while exclusive breastfeeding remained unchanged 1.6% (95% CI: −2.7, 5.9; p = 0.478). From 2003 to 2013, minimum meal frequency increased significantly by 13.8% (95% CI: 9.9, 17.8; p < 0.001), but minimum dietary diversity and minimum acceptable decreased significantly by 9.7% (95% CI: −9.2, −6.3; p < 0.001) and 3.5% (95% CI: −5.7, −1.3; p = 0.002), respectively. Predominant breastfeeding increased significantly by 13.1% (p < 0.001), and children ever breastfed declined by 16.4% (p < 0.001) over time.ConclusionDespite considerable improvements in national legislation, health system responses and community level development, IYCF practices in Nigeria are still below expected levels. Strengthening community and facility based participation, and broader stand-alone/integrated IYCF policy implementations are needed to improve the current feeding practices of Nigerian mothers.

Incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and risk factors of cancer in Australia and comparison with OECD countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND Comparative evidence on the burden, trend, and risk factors of cancer is limited. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we aimed to assess cancer burden - incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) - and attributable risk factors for Australia between 1990 and 2015, and to compare them with those of 34 members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). METHODS The general GBD cancer estimation methods were used with data input from vital registration systems and cancer registries. A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions due to risk factors. RESULTS In 2015 there were 198,880 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 183,908-217,365) estimated incident cancer cases and 47,562 (95% UI: 46,061-49,004) cancer deaths in Australia. Twenty-nine percent (95% UI: 28.2-29.8) of total deaths and 17.0% (95% UI: 15.0-19.1) of DALYs were caused by cancer in Australia in 2015. Cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung, colon and rectum, and prostate were the most common causes of cancer deaths. Thirty-six percent (95% UI: 33.1-37.9) of all cancer deaths were attributable to behavioral risks. The age-standardized cancer incidence rate (ASIR) increased between 1990 and 2015, while the age-standardized cancer death rate (ASDR) decreased over the same period. In 2015, compared to 34 other OECD countries Australia ranked first (highest) and 24th based on ASIR and ASDR, respectively. CONCLUSION The incidence of cancer has increased over 25 years, and behavioral risks are responsible for a large proportion of cancer deaths. Scaling up of prevention (using strategies targeting cancer risk factors), early detection, and treatment of cancer is required to effectively address this growing health challenge.

Trends and Predictors of Prelacteal Feeding Practices in Nigeria (2003-2013).

Prelacteal feeding practices are associated with an increased risk of diarrhoea and many early-life diseases. This paper examined trends and predictors of prelacteal feeding practices in Nigeria. A sample of 6416 infants aged 0–6 months from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data for the period (2003–2013) was used. Trends and multilevel logistic regression analyses were used to determine the predictors. The trends of prelacteal feeding rates fluctuated between 55% and 66% over the study period and were significantly lower among mothers with secondary or higher levels of education (13.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.54–25.9, p-value = 0.041), delivered at the health facility (13.7%, CI: 1.39–25.9, p-value = 0.029), from more affluent households (18.7%, CI: 1.53–35.9, p-value = 0.033), and lived in urban areas (26.9%, CI: 18.3–35.5, p-value < 0.001). Multivariable analyses revealed that mothers with no schooling, younger mothers (aged 15–24 years), mothers who delivered at home, and delivered by caesarean section were more likely to introduce prelacteal feeds. Many mothers still engage in prelacteal feeding practices in Nigeria, with prelacteal feeding more prevalent in young mothers, mothers with no schooling, and mothers who delivered at home. Interventions involving community health volunteers are needed to improve feeding practices in Nigeria.

Developmental disabilities among children younger than 5 years in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Summary Background The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) mandate systematic monitoring of the health and wellbeing of all children to achieve optimal early childhood development. However, global epidemiological data on children with developmental disabilities are scarce. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for development disabilities among children younger than 5 years in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and YLDs for epilepsy, intellectual disability, hearing loss, vision loss, autism spectrum disorder, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. YLDs were estimated as the product of the prevalence estimate and the disability weight for each mutually exclusive disorder, corrected for comorbidity. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, on a pool of primary data derived from systematic reviews of the literature, health surveys, hospital and claims databases, cohort studies, and disease-specific registries. Findings Globally, 52·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 48·7–57·3; or 8·4% [7·7–9·1]) children younger than 5 years (54% males) had developmental disabilities in 2016 compared with 53·0 million (49·0–57·1; or 8·9% [8·2–9·5]) in 1990. About 95% of these children lived in low-income and middle-income countries. YLDs among these children increased from 3·8 million (95% UI 2·8–4·9) in 1990 to 3·9 million (2·9–5·2) in 2016. These disabilities accounted for 13·3% of the 29·3 million YLDs for all health conditions among children younger than 5 years in 2016. Vision loss was the most prevalent disability, followed by hearing loss, intellectual disability, and autism spectrum disorder. However, intellectual disability was the largest contributor to YLDs in both 1990 and 2016. Although the prevalence of developmental disabilities among children younger than 5 years decreased in all countries (except for North America) between 1990 and 2016, the number of children with developmental disabilities increased significantly in sub-Saharan Africa (71·3%) and in North Africa and the Middle East (7·6%). South Asia had the highest prevalence of children with developmental disabilities in 2016 and North America had the lowest. Interpretation The global burden of developmental disabilities has not significantly improved since 1990, suggesting inadequate global attention on the developmental potential of children who survived childhood as a result of child survival programmes, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. The SDGs provide a framework for policy and action to address the needs of children with or at risk of developmental disabilities, particularly in resource-poor countries. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.