Feng Guo-Lin

Characteristics of the spatiotemporal distribution of daily extreme temperature events in China: Minimum temperature records in different climate states against the background of the most probable temperature

Based on the skewed function, the most probable temperature is defined and the spatiotemporal distributions of the frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events in different climate states over China are investigated, where the climate states are referred to as State I, State II and State III, i.e., the daily minimum temperature records of 1961–1990, 1971–2000, and 1981–2009. The results show that in space the frequency of high temperature events in summer decreases clearly in the lower and middle reaches of the Yellow River in State I and that low temperature events decrease in northern China in State II. In the present state, the frequency of high temperature events increases significantly in most areas over China except the north east, while the frequency of low temperature events decreases mainly in north China and the regions between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. The distributions of frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events are consistent in space. The analysis of time evolution of extreme events shows that the occurrence of high temperature events become higher with the change in state, while that of low temperature events decreases. High temperature events are becoming stronger as well and deserve to be paid special attention.

A new difference scheme with multi-time levels

In view of making the best use of information coming from past observational data, a new difference scheme with multi-time levels (p>3) is suggested. Some mathematical characteristics of the scheme, which is called the retrospective scheme, are discussed. The numerical results of some examples show that the calculation accuracy of linear and nonlinear advection equations computed with the retrospective scheme is higher than that obtained via the leapfrog scheme. The scheme can be applied to many fields, such as meteorology, engineering, physics, astronautics, environment and economy etc, where systematic observations are made normally.

Application study of monthly precipitation forecast in Northeast China based on the cold vortex persistence activity index

This paper introduces three quantitative indicators to conduct research for characterizing Northeast China cold vortex persistence activity: cold vortex persistence, generalized “cold vortex,” and cold vortex precipitation. As discussed in the first part of paper, a hindcast is performed by multiple regressions using Northeast China precipitation from 2012 to 2014 combination with the previous winter 144 air-sea system factors. The results show that the mentioned three cold vortex index series can reflect the spatial and temporal distributions of observational precipitation in 2012–2014 and obtain results. The cold vortex factors are then added to the Forecast System on Dynamical and Analogy Skills (FODAS) to carry out dynamic statistical hindcast of precipitation in Northeast China from 2003 to 2012. Based on the characteristics and significance of each index, precipitation hindcast is carried out for Northeast China in May, June, July, August, May–June, and July–August. It turns out that the Northeast Cold Vortex Index Series, as defined in this paper, can make positive corrections to the FODAS forecast system, and most of the index correction results are higher than the system’s own correction value. This study provides quantitative index products and supplies a solid technical foundation and support for monthly precipitation forecast in Northeast China.

Frenkel–Kontorova Model with Alternant Coupling Potential*

We have studied a modified Frenkel–Kontorova (FK) model with alternant coupling potential. From it, we obtain a coupling conservative map, it shows that the gold-mean number is not the last broken winding number, and the broken critical value is varied with the variance of strength of spire. The phase diagram becomes asymmetric in a period. The Devils staircase and generalized dimension are different from those of the standard FK model.