Fengming Xi

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China’s total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China’s carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000–2012 than the value reported by China’s national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China’s cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China’s cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China’s emissions in 2000–2013 may be larger than China’s estimated total forest sink in 1990–2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China’s land carbon sink in 2000–2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

The potential environmental gains from recycling waste plastics: Simulation of transferring recycling and recovery technologies to Shenyang, China

With the increasing attention on developing a low-carbon economy, it is necessary to seek appropriate ways on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through innovative municipal solid waste management (MSWM), such as urban symbiosis. However, quantitative assessments on the environmental benefits of urban symbiosis, especially in developing countries, are limited because only a limited number of planned synergistic activities have been successful and it is difficult to acquire detailed inventory data from private companies. This paper modifies and applies a two-step simulation system and used it to assess the potential environmental benefits, including the reduction of GHG emissions and saving of fossil fuels, by employing various Japanese plastics recycling/energy-recovery technologies in Shenyang, China. The results showed that among various recycling/energy-recovery technologies, the mechanical waste plastics recycling technology, which produces concrete formwork boards (NF boards), has the greatest potential in terms of reducing GHG emissions (1.66 kg CO(2)e/kg plastics), whereas the technology for the production of refuse plastic fuel (RPF) has the greatest potential on saving fossil fuel consumption (0.77 kg ce/kg-plastics). Additional benefits can be gained by applying combined technologies that cascade the utilization of waste plastics. Moreover, the development of clean energy in conjunction with the promotion of new waste plastics recycling programs could contribute to additional reductions in GHG emissions and fossil fuel consumption.

Simulating the impacts of ecological protection policies on urban land use sustainability in Shenyang-Fushun, China

Chinese cities are undergoing rapid urban sprawl, dramatic landscape change, industrialisation, and ecological damage, which threaten urban sustainable development. The aim of our research was to answer the following question: is it possible to achieve sustainable development through rational ecological protection policies that harmonise future urbanisation, re‐industrialisation, economic development, and sustainable urban land use in these cities? To answer the question, we conducted a simulation of policy impacts on future urban growth and landscape change. We applied a widely used regional assessment and predictive model, SLEUTH, to explore the potential impacts of different ecological protection policy scenarios in the Shenyang-Fushun metropolitan region of China. Future urban growth and landscape changes were projected out to 2050, assuming three different ecological protection policy scenarios: (1) accelerated urban development (AUD), (2) managed urban development (MUD), and (3) limited urban development (LUD). Landscape metrics were used to compare and analyse the impacts of the future scenarios on urban growth and landscape change. Analysis reveals that urban growth and landscape fragmentation increase in all scenarios, but future urban growth area and landscape pattern differ among the scenarios. The AUD scenario will cause excessive urban growth, major land loss, and serious landscape fragmentation. The LUD scenario shows good land resource protection and low landscape fragmentation, but the urban growth rate is unrealistically low, reducing the extent of likely re-industrialisation and economic development. The MUD scenario shows moderate urban growth and landscape fragmentation. It would be the most suitable scenario for the industrial metropolitan area under study if the urban sprawl can be controlled, and it would better harmonise re-industrialisation, ecological health, and land preservation and achieve sustainable development in the area.

Simulate urban growth based on RS, GIS, and SLEUTH model in Shenyang-Fushun metropolitan area northeastern China

Shenyang and Fushun are two most nearest mega cities in China. Integration of the two cities as one sub-administrative economic region is a state and province policy to promote economy development of Liaoning province. How the urban patterns of the mega cities will grow is interested to city planners, decision-makers, land managers, ecologists, geographers, and resource managers because its special policy and spatiotemporal dynamic complexity. This study explore the combined application of remote sensing, geographical information system and SLEUTH urban growth model to analyze and model urban growth pattern in Shenyang-Fushun metropolitan area northeastern China. The sequential RS images can give quantitative descriptors of the geometry of urban form to be computed and compared over time. The investigation is based on a 16-year time series data set compiled from interpreted historical TM satellite imagery. The SLEUTH model was calibrated using the mutil-temporal data set for the 6391.12km2 area where has experienced rapid urbanization in recent years. The model allowed a spatial forecast of urban growth, and future growth was projected out to 2050 assuming four different policy scenarios: (1) current trends (CT), (2) accelerated urban development (AUD), (3) protected urban development (PUD), and (4) limitative urban growth (LUD). The predicted urban growth shows similar compact pattern under each scenario except the current trends scenario that shows diffused urban growth pattern and most diffused growth appears at south of region. Edge growth and road gravity growth are the main growth types in the future. The accelerated urban development scenario shows the most urban growth area. The limitative urban growth scenario shows the least urban growth area. The protected urban development scenario shows moderate urban growth area and good protection to other land resources. The urban land of two mega cities will connect firstly to a whole on the south bank of Hun River about in 2040 in the accelerated urban development and the current trends scenarios, and will not connect on the other two scenarios until 2050. The combined method using remote sensing, geographical information system and SLEUTH urban growth model is powerful for representation, modeling and prediction of the spatiotemporal urban growth, and useful for understanding the alternative future planning scenarios, but location accuracy and scenarios design must be further considered for local application.

Study on forecast scenarios for simulation of future urban growth in Shenyang City based on SLEUTH model

The SLEUTH urban growth model was used to simulate future urban growth patterns and to explore potential environmental impacts of urban development under different conditions of development in Shenyang City, China. The SLEUTH model was calibrated with historical data (1988–2004) extracted from a time series of TM satellite images, and the future growth was projected out to 2030 assuming three different policy scenarios: (1) current trends scenario (Scenario CT), (2) regional policy and urban planning scenario (Scenario PP), and (3) environmental protection scenario (Scenario EP). Scenario analysis showed that urban growth would accelerate under all policy scenarios with significant differences in development pattern and sustainability after 2016. Urban development under Scenario CT would lead to substantial loss of resource lands than that under the other two scenarios, and the urban landscape pattern would be increasingly complex and dispersed. In contrast, urban growth under scenario PP and EP would consume less natural resource land and show a relatively compact urban development pattern during the prediction period. This study suggested that it is crucial to take stringent urban planning and management measures to control future urban growth and to protect primary farmland and the support system of urban ecology in Shenyang City. The SLEUTH model is a useful planning tool to guide sustainable utilization of urban land resources to a certain extent.

Climate negotiations: Tie carbon emissions to consumers

The governance of science, including the whole system of quality assurance, depends on specialist access to resources and publication. A new and radical engagement of the public in reality and crowd-sourced science is calling this principle into question. Following the furore surrounding cancer claims for herbicide-resistant transgenic maize (Nature 489, 484; 2012; and Nature 492, 12; 2012), Russian scientists intend to run a ‘rat reality show’ that will be broadcast over the Internet around the clock. This year-long, real-time feeding experiment aims to test the safety of genetically modified food products (see go.nature.com/ qkvzqe). Actually witnessing the experiment, the team suggests, will allow the public to draw their own conclusions. If the scientists are unable to fund the show from orthodox sources, they plan to crowd-source public funding. It would be easy to dismiss such ‘reality’ experiments as a stunt — as frivolity leading to demagoguery. But social media are increasingly influencing mainstream scientific communication and could stimulate a spread in reality science, blurring the demarcations on which the legitimacy and quality assurance of science traditionally depend. Jerome R. Ravetz, Peter Healey, Steve Rayner Institute for Science, Innovation and Society, University of Oxford, UK. steve.rayner@insis.ox.ac.uk Cancer goal: vaccine is cause for optimism

Exploring and Assessing Innovative Approaches to Utilizing Waste as a Resource: Toward Co-Benefits

Waste is an inevitable byproduct of human activity. In the last two centuries, waste management has passed through a series of transitions in terms of treatment and disposal technologies, as well as in administrative systems and in people’s attitudes. Waste managers, engineers, planners, and researchers have contributed to these transitions by responding to issues such as public health, disposal capacity, more-rigorous environmental standards, and public and political pressures (Louis, 2004; Tarr, 1985). More recently, studies on waste management have emphasized the 3Rs (Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle). As a result of the efforts of practitioners and researchers, considerable achievements in waste handling have been realized in a number of countries. The questions that we currently face are “What forthcoming issues related to waste management do we need to respond to?” and “What will be the appropriate methods for addressing these issues in research?” In this chapter, we will explore some of the pressing issues, and we will propose a research framework for assessing the options available for responding to them.