Ferda Halicioglu

The J‐curve dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade: a cointegration approach

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study empirically the dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade between Turkey and her nine trading partners, in addition to aggregate trade balance data. Design/methodology/approach - The paper employs cointegration, generalized impulse response analysis, and stability tests. Findings - The empirical results suggest non-existence of the J-curve effect at disaggregate and aggregate levels. However, Marshall-Lerner condition holds for the aggregate data along with some of the trading partners. With regard to the stability of trade balance equations, the findings are mixed. Practical implications - Conclusions drawn from this study could be useful for the policy makers of governments and practitioners in international trade organizations. Originality/value - This paper extends the existing literature by providing initial evidence at disaggregate data in the case of Turkey. Moreover, for the first time disaggregate and aggregate data are utilized in the same analysis.

Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2000

This paper presents an empirical analysis of Wagner’s law in the case of Turkey over the period 1960–2000. The paper uses modern time-series econometric techniques to test the law’s proposition that in the course of economic development, government expenditures increase. The results of this study do not support the empirical validity of Wagner’s law for Turkey for the period 1960–2000. However, the paper finds statistical evidence for an augmented version of Wagner’s law.

An econometric analysis of the aggregate outbound tourism demand of Turkey.

This study empirically examines aggregate tourism outflows in the case of Turkey using the time-series data for 1970–2005. As far as this article is concerned, there is no previous empirical work dealing with tourist outflows from Turkey. The previous tourism studies of Turkey have focused, by and large, on inbound tourism demand analyses. However, as a developing country and an important tourism destination, Turkey has also been a significant source for generating a substantial number of tourists in recent years. Therefore, the tourist outflows also merit empirical analysis. Total tourist outflows from Turkey are related to real income and relative prices. The bounds testing to cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al (2001) is employed to compute the short- and long-run elasticities of income and relative prices. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted among the variables of outbound tourist flows, income and relative prices to determine the direction of causality. In the long run, causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income and relative prices to outbound tourist flows. However, in the short run, causality runs only from income to outbound tourism flows. The aggregate tourism outflows equation is also checked for the parameter stability via the tests of cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of the squares (CUSUMSQ). The results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining total tourist outflows from Turkey and there is a stable outbound tourism demand function. The results also lead to important policy recommendations.

Determinants of suicides in Denmark: Evidence from time series data

This research examines empirically the determinants of suicides in Denmark over the period 1970-2006. To our knowledge, there exist no previous study that estimates a dynamic econometric model of suicides on the basis of time series data and cointegration framework at disaggregate level. Our results indicate that suicide is associated with a range of socio-economic factors but the strength of the association can differ by gender. In particular, we find that a rise in real per capita income and fertility rate decreases suicides for males and females. Divorce is positively associated with suicides and this effect seems to be stronger for men. A fall in unemployment rates seems to lower significantly suicides in males and females. Policy implications of suicides are discussed with some appropriate recommendations.

The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model

This article seeks an empirical evidence for the existence of the J-curve phenomenon both in the short-run and long-run for Turkey over the period 1980-2005. The bounds testing cointegration approach is employed to estimate the trade balance model. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented between trade balance, real effective exchange rates, foreign income and domestic income. The stability of the short-run as well as long-run coefficients in the trade balance model is tested too. The empirical results that the J-curve phenomenon is supported only in the short-run. Whilst causality tests reveal mix results, the parameter stability tests seem to be inconclusive.

On Stability of the Demand for Money in a Developing OECD Country: The Case of Turkey

This paper empirically analyses the stability of the narrow money demand function (M1) in Turkey for the period 1950-2002. As part of the IMF-sponsored stabilisation programme, Turkey has been pursuing base money targets. To ascertain whether this policy framework satisfies the necessary condition for effectiveness, we estimate and test for the stability of Turkish M1 by employing a recent single cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) along with the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests. We demonstrate that there is a stable money demand function and it could be used as an intermediate target of monetary policy in Turkey.

The demand for new housing in Turkey: an application of ARDL model

This study provides empirical estimates for new residential homes demand function in Turkey using the time series data for the period 1964–2004. An aggregate demand function for new private dwellings in Turkey is formed and is estimated using bounds testing cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income and price variables. This study also implements Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Cumulative Sum of the Squares (CUSUMSQ) stability tests on the estimated new housing demand function. The empirical results indicate that income is the most significant variable in explaining the demand for new housing in Turkey and there exists a relatively stable new housing demand function.

Balance-of-payments-constrained growth: the case of Turkey

In order to test the existence of Thirlwalls law for Turkey during the 1980-2008 period, a bounds test approach to cointegration is applied. The empirical results suggest that Thirlwalls law holds for Turkey. This study also suggests some policy recommendations to curb the deficits in the balance of payments.

Temporal causality and the dynamics of crime in Turkey

This study is concerned with understanding of the factors of aggregate, nonviolent and violent crime categories in Turkey for the period 1965-2009. The determinants of all crime categories are related to selected socio-economic factors. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the existence of long-run relationship amongst the variables. Cointegration analysis yields the major contributors of crime are income and unemployment. The direction of causalities between the variables are established using within and out of sample causality tests. The findings from this study present the dynamics of aggregate, violent and non-violent crimes to design and implement any relevant policy measures to combat them.

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the demand for money in Turkey

ABSTRACT As a result of the research conducted by Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell (1963), most studies estimating the demand for money today do include the exchange rate in their specification to account for currency substitution. Previous studies that did this for the Turkish demand for money assumed that exchange rate changes do have symmetric effects on the demand for money in Turkey. In this article, we question this assumption. By using the nonlinear ARDL approach, we show that indeed exchange rate changes do have short-run and long-run asymmetric effects on the M1 demand for money. Introducing nonlinearity also yields a stable money demand.