Fernando Antonio Slaibe Postali

Distribuição das rendas do petróleo e indicadores de desenvolvimento municipal no Brasil nos anos 2000S

In 1997, the Brazilian government approved the Law 9478/97, which has established new criteria for the distribution of oil royalties among municipalities and expanded the possibilities of using these resources in social areas. The aim of this paper is to investigate empirically whether the royalties distributed under this law contributed to the improvement of social indicators of the municipalities relative to the national average in the period 2000 to 2007. We used the Social Development Index Firjan (IFDM) and its three components: IFDM - Education, IFDM - Health and IFDM - Employment & Income as a measure of social development. The results show that the oil revenues produced no significant impacts on social indicators of health and education of municipalities benefited, but, surprisingly, generated negative effects on their formal sector work.

Resource Windfalls, Fiscal Effort and Public Spending: Evidence from Brazilian Municipalities

In 1997, Brazil approved a new law establishing the regulatory framework of oil and gas industry. One of the most important changes was the distribution of petroleum rents to states and Municipalities. The volume received by each municipality varies considerably, since it depends on a range of criteria that measure the impact of upstream activities on the specific municipality as well as the number of productive wells next to it. This paper aims at evaluating whether municipalities eligible to receive royalties exhibited a lower fiscal effort than the non-eligible ones. We use the local collection of Urban Property Tax (IPTU) as a measure of fiscal effort, after controlling for fiscal capacity of each municipality. We also assess whether municipalities are obeying requirements of spending oil rents, by measuring the impact of such rents on specific items of the budget, like personal, health, education and investment expenses. The data set comprehends about 4000 municipalities observed during seven years (from 1999 to 2005). We used the Arellano-Bond GMM estimator in a dynamic panel with fixed effects. Results allow concluding that windfall oil rents in fact reduces fiscal effort and increases the allocation of budgetary resources on investment, but the share of budget allocated on health, education, energy and housing expenses did not changed as consequence of oil royalties.

Decentralization and corruption: evidence from primary health-care programmes

The aim of this article is to evaluate whether there is an association between decentralization and corruption. In order to do so we analyse Brazilian health-care programmes that are run locally. To construct objective measures of corruption, we use the information from the reports of the auditing programme of the local governments of Brazil. Results point that there is no relationship between decentralization and corruption, whatever the measure of decentralization used.

Análise de Concorrência no Mercado Mundial de Café Verde

Although Brazil is still the world’s leading exporter of green coffee, current studies demonstrate that Brazil has been losing power in the market, because the existing competition (rivalry and possibility to enter) imposed by countries, such as Colombia and Vietnam, is strong enough to make this market very competitive. Therefore, this paper assesses the competitive profile in the world market for green coffee using econometric tools usually employed in antitrust analysis. To evaluate the consumer behavior, price elasticity of the world demand for green coffee was estimated, by coffee type, using the Multinomial Logit Demand model. To evaluate the supply behavior, tests for market share instability were conducted, in terms of quantity, by using cointegration in panel data. Results reveal an increased competition for the Brazilian coffee from the point of view of the demand, with the maintenance of market shares over time.

The Oil and Gas Sector in the Brazilian Economy

This paper presents the results of a research conducted to measure the importance of the oil and gas complex in the Brazilian economy and in its states, henceforth called O&G. Initially, the efforts were concentrated on the construction of an interregional input-output system for the 27 states of the Brazilian economy at the level of 42 industries, for the year of 2002. By using this system, it was possible to make an analysis of the role played by the oil and gas complex in the Brazilian economy and its states. First it was made an analysis of the economic flows linked to the oil and gas production, and then it is made an estimation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) value generated by the oil and gas complex in the Brazilian economy and its states. It was also made a detailed analysis of the productive chain of the oil and gas, starting from the suppliers of inputs to the oil and gas production, going through the production itself and the various stages of refining and processing, and ending at the measuring of the services and distribution activities. The results show that the oil and gas complex has a share of around 10.4% of the Brazilian GDP, while the share in the GDP of the states ranges from less than 1% to 27%.

Royalties do petróleo e emprego público nos municípios Brasileiros

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether oil transfers (royalties and special tax) lead the benefited municipalities to increase the hiring of civil servants, in disagreement with the legal recommendations. For this, we applied the method Doubly Robust to a panel of municipalities observed between 2000 and 2009. The method consists of two stages. Firstly, it estimates the probability of receiving oil revenues conditioned on observable variables and, in a second stage, a fixed effect panel model was estimated with data belonging to a common support constructed from the estimated propensity scores in the first stage. The results show that local governments raise their workforce due to the enjoyment of oil revenues, but the average payroll expenditure does not increase in the treatment group. In Rio de Janeiro, subject to more specific determinations of its Court of Auditors, the effect is not significant, indicating adherence to the rules by the eligible municipalities.

Assimetrias entre os competidores nos leilões da ANP

This article investigates asymmetries among bidders in the bidding for oil in Brazil, by comparing statistically the distributions of bids. Distributions are estimated by nonparametric procedures. An exploratory analysis of the bids, containing several combinations of players, confirmed the expectation that there are asymmetries in favor of Petrobras and OGX. We compare the distributions and test differences using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results support the hypothesis of asymmetries, but there is stylized evidence consistent with both informational and cost asymmetries.

Efeitos da descentralização da saúde básica no Brasil sobre o nível de corrupção em municípios investigados pelo governo central

O objetivo deste artigo e estudar a relacao entre descentralizacao e corrupcao no Brasil entre 2007 e 2010, usando como medida de corrupcao as irregularidades descritas nos relatorios das auditorias do programa de fiscalizacao dos municipios da Controladoria Geral da Uniao. O artigo procura verificar se os resultados encontrados para a regiao Sudeste no periodo de 2004 a 2006 (Peixoto et al., 2012) podem ser generalizados. Considerando a imensa diferenca regional do pais, a simples inferencia a partir de resultados da regiao mais desenvolvida e rica apresenta riscos. Alem disso, o processo de descentralizacao ainda esta acontecendo. Usamos como indicadores de descentralizacao uma variavel de descentralizacao financeira e outra de descentralizacao administrativa. Os resultados sugerem que a descentralizacao administrativa, diferentemente do resultado obtido para a regiao Sudeste em periodo anterior, reduz o numero de ocorrencias caracterizadas como corrupcao junto aos programas de saude geridos pelos municipios auditados. Entretanto, nenhum efeito da descentralizacao financeira se mostrou significativo.

Production Efficiency of Family Farms and Business Farms in the Brazilian Regions

This paper aims to analyze the technical efficiency of farms in Brazil and its regions, based on the data from the 2006 Census of Agriculture. More specifically, it seeks to compare the technical efficiency of family farms in relation to business farms, cons idering the regional differences in the country. To do so, one simultaneously estimated, under different assumptio ns, stochastic production frontiers and inefficienc y effects models. Thus, it was possible to measure the techni cal efficiency of farms, as well as analyze the inf luence of factors related to the production environment, allo wing the indication of public policies aimed at imp roving the performance of producers. In the empirical esti mation, it was observed, as expected, lower technic al efficiency for family farms. In regional terms, wit h respect to the technical efficiency of business f arms, the South region of Brazil stood out, also presenting, along with the Midwest region, the highest efficien cy rates for family farms, on average. Regarding the influen ce of production environment, it was found that for mal education and access to credit are noteworthy as im portant factors for the technical efficiency of Bra zilian agriculture.

Pyramidal Ownership Structures and Its Effects on Firm Value: The Case of Going Public Companies in Brazil during 2004 to 2007 (Portuguese)

This paper aims to analyze the ownership structure of 100 companies that went public in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA) during 2004 to 2007. We assess, particularly, the effect of pyramidal ownership structures on firm’s market value. In order to do so, we collect data on the firm’s ownership structure, available from the IPO prospectus, and other financial variables. We analyze the information trough different econometric models. The results show that 60% of the going public companies present some sort of pyramidal ownership structure, and the ultimate controlling shareholder owns, on average, 48% of the firm’s voting shares right after the IPO. Our results also present evidence that pyramidal ownership structures affect negatively the firm value: on average, companies controlled through pyramidal structures have a lower stock return, ceteris paribus. The effects on price-to-book value, however, are not conclusive. (Paper written in portuguese)