Fernando Rajulton

Early life transitions of Canadian women: a cohort analysis of timing, sequences, and variations.

This paper looks into the timing and sequences of early life transitions of Canadian women using data from the 1995 General Social Survey of Family. Six events occurring in early adulthood are examined: school completion, first job, home-leaving, first cohabitation, first marriage, and first birth. Our analysis of birth cohorts spanning 60 years shows that the biggest changes in timing occurred in school completion and start of work; that the trajectories involving work before marriage have gained popularity among later cohorts; and that education appreciably delays early life transitions.

Perceived Risks of HIV/AIDS and First Sexual Intercourse among Youth in Cape Town, South Africa

The ‘Health Belief Model’ (HBM) identifies perception of HIV/AIDS risks, recognition of its seriousness, and knowledge about prevention as predictors of safer sexual activity. Using data from the Cape Area Panel Survey (CAPS) and hazard models, this study examines the impact of risk perception, considered the first step in HIV prevention, set within the context of the HBM and socio-economic, familial and school factors, on the timing of first sexual intercourse among youth aged 14–22 in Cape Town, South Africa. Of the HBM components, female youth who perceive their risk as ‘very small’ and males with higher knowledge, experience their sexual debut later than comparison groups, net of other influences. For both males and females socio-economic and familial factors also influence timing of sexual debut, confirming the need to consider the social embeddedness of this sexual behavior as well as the rational components of decision making when designing prevention programs.

A multi-level analysis of risk perception, poverty and sexual risk-taking among young people in Cape Town, South Africa.

Various studies have underscored the relevance of community-level factors to sexual behavior and HIV/AIDS prevention efforts in Africa. However, there is a paucity of research and theorizing in this area compared to the preponderance of prevention models that focus solely on individual-level factors. Using data from the Cape Area Panel Survey and hierarchical linear models, this study examines the effects of a combination of individual-level factors and community-level poverty on sexual behaviors. Male and female respondents who perceived themselves to be at great risk of HIV infection were less likely to indulge in risky sexual behaviors. For females, race and community-level poverty were confounded such that race mediated the effects of community-level poverty. Results from this study indicate that multiple rationalities affect sexual behaviors in Cape Town, South Africa and that there is a need to consider both the social embeddedness of sexual behaviors and the rational components of decision making when designing HIV/AIDS prevention programs.

Social Status Polarization in the Timing and Trajectories to Motherhood

This paper examines the polarization by social status of Canadian women’s timing and trajectories to motherhood. The study applies event history analysis on data gathered through the 2001 General Social Survey on Family History and focuses on women born from 1922 to 1980. Women with high social status are more likely to delay their entry into motherhood and to follow normatively preferred trajectories that include graduation from post-secondary education. In contrast, women with low social status are more likely to follow shorter routes, often bypassing graduation from post-secondary education, regular work, or marriage, and consequently become mothers at younger age.

Youth Integration and Social Capital: An Analysis of the Canadian General Social Surveys on Time Use.

Integration is social cohesion measured at the individual level. This article examines three of its dimensions—inclusion, participation, and belonging—using data gathered from the General Social Surveys on Time Use. It describes the inclusion and participation of Canadians aged 15 to 29 years in 1986, 1992, and 1998; examines differences by age group and gender; and explores the effects of human and social capital of individuals, families, and communities on integration.

The Fundamentals of Longitudinal Research: An Overview

This paper outlines briefly the historical development of ideas related to longitudinal studies and their advantages over cross-sectional studies. Then it points out a few complicating factors that arise with the analysis of longitudinal data and highlights some of the approaches adopted to manage those complicating factors and illustrated in the papers included in this Special Issue. The overall aim is to promote a better understanding of the information that longitudinal data provide and of the suitable techniques needed to analyze such data.

Education and timing of parenthood among Canadian women: A cohort analysis

This research examines factors associated with the timing of first birth in Canada, focusing primarily on the role of womens educational attainment. Proportional hazards modelling techniques are applied to data from the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey (CFS) in order to determine how educational attainment, estimated as close as possible to the date of first birth, influences the timing of first birth and whether the importance of this variable varies according to age cohorts. The results suggest that among a number of variables useful for distinguishing different levels of risk, educational attainment proves to be the most important predictor in the model. Education exerts a substantial positive influence on birth timing for women of all age groups. As expected, moreover, significant cohort differences are also evident, with the greatest to the smallest impact on the risk from the youngest to the oldest cohorts. These clear-cut cohort differences indicate a fundamental change in the effects of education over time, a trend most likely resulting from substantial changes in both the content and social significance of formal schooling during the past few decades.

Analysis of Life Histories - A State Space Approach

The computer package LIFEHIST written by the author is meant for analyzing life histories through a state space approach. Basic ideas on which the various programs have been built are described in this paper in a nonmathematical language. Users can use various programs for multistate analyses based on Markov and semi-Markov frameworks and sequences of transitions implied in life histories. The package is under constant revision, and programs for using a few specific models the author thinks will be useful for analyzing longitudinal data will be incorporated in the near future.

Factors influencing condom use among women in Ghana: an HIV/AIDS perspective

Although in Ghana information on HIV infection and prevention, both in terms of quality and quantity, has increased considerably within the past few years, available literature indicates that behaviour change is yet to correspond with the amount of information and education provided. The objective of this study is to examine factors that influence condom use among women in Ghana in the context of HIV/AIDS prevalence. Data for this study are from the 2003 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) and the study population (N=5 691) was analysed using logistic regression with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as an explanatory tool. The outcome variable for this study is condom use during last sexual intercourse. The HBM identifies perception of HIV/AIDS risks, awareness of its seriousness, knowledge about prevention, and confidence in condom use as predictors of safe sexual activity. Results show that the proportion of women reporting use of condoms remains tremendously low, in both the rural and urban areas. In the urban areas, only 15% of women reported having sex with condom during their last intercourse, whereas in the rural areas the proportion is even lower (10%). However, multivariate analyses based on the HBM components show that speaking with a partner about how to avoid AIDS (Odds Ratio = 1.63) and perceived benefits of using condoms (Odds Ratio = 1.54) are notable factors that predict condom use. Overall, the study points out that with the exception of perceived severity, the HBM can be applied to understand condom use among the study population. It will be important to emphasise all components of the HBM and empower women with condom negotiation skills.

Early Life Transitions of Canadian Youth: Effects of Family Transformation and Community Characteristics

This paper looks at the impact of family transformation and community characteristics on the timing and sequences of early life transitions of Canadians born in 1971-75. Using event history techniques of analysis, the effects on school completion, start of regular work, and home-leaving are examined using a data set that merged the 1995 General Social Survey of the Family with data derived from the enumeration areas of the 1996 Census. The results show that family disruption impacts negatively on the transition to adulthood. And, mother=s work status and community-level characteristics indicative of availability of material resources and opportunities have significant effect on the timing of transition to adulthood mainly through longer period of education.