Fidel Gonzalez

The Impact of FDI on CO2 Emissions in Latin America

This paper uses panel Granger causality tests to study the relationship between sector-specific foreign direct investment (FDI) and CO2 emissions. Using a sample of 18 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2007, we find causality running from FDI in pollution-intensive industries (“the dirty sector”) to CO2 emissions per capita. This result is robust to controlling for other factors associated with CO2 emissions and using the ratio of CO2 emissions to GDP. For other sectors, we find no robust evidence that FDI causes CO2 emissions.

Mortality and business cycles by level of development: evidence from Mexico.

We investigate the relationship between mortality and business cycles within Mexico, where development varies significantly. We exploit this variation by separately analyzing the top ten and bottom ten developed states for the period 1993-2004. We find that while overall mortality is procyclical nationally and in the top ten states, it is countercyclical in the bottom ten. Further, we show that in the top ten states mortality due to non communicable conditions is procyclical, while in the bottom ten mortality due to non communicable conditions and infectious and parasitic diseases are countercyclical. Our results suggest that the relationship between mortality and business cycles may vary by level of development.

How Much are Urban Residents in Mexico Willing to Pay for Cleaner Air

We estimate the marginal willingness-to-pay for PM10 abatement in the three largest Mexican cities. We use a unique data set with actual market transactions at the household level from January 2003 to May 2004 and observed PM10 concentrations. We follow an instrumental variable approach to mitigate bias from omitted variables. We exploit the seasonality in PM10 concentrations due to rainfall patterns in those cities to construct a valid instrument for PM10. We find the house price-pollution elasticity to be around -0.07 for Mexico City, -0.05 for Guadalajara, and -0.07 for Monterrey, implying that one unit reduction in PM10 levels is valued at US

Determinants of housing expenditure in Mexico

41.73, 36.34 and 43.47, respectively. Our results indicate that urban residents of Mexico are willing to pay for cleaner air.

Sex Work Regulation and Sexually Transmitted Infections in Tijuana, Mexico

Few studies estimate housing demand for developing countries. We contribute to the literature by estimating housing demand in Mexico, and analysing its main determinants. An advantage of this study is the use of market-based data of actual housing transactions. Our results show a strong positive influence of permanent and temporary income on housing demand.

Economic cycles and heart disease in Mexico

While reducing the transmission of sexually transmitted infections is a common argument for regulating sex work, relatively little empirical evidence is available regarding the effectiveness of these policies. We investigate the effects of highly publicized sex work regulations introduced in 2005 in Tijuana, Mexico on the incidence of trichomoniasis. State-level, annual data for the 1995-2012 period are employed that include the incidence rates of trichomoniasis by age group and predictor variables. We find that the regulations led to a decrease in the incidence rate of trichomoniasis. Specifically, while our estimates are somewhat noisy, the all-ages incidence rate in the 2005-2012 period is roughly 37% lower than what is predicted by our synthetic control estimates and corresponds to approximately 800 fewer reported cases of trichomoniasis per year. We find that the decreases are especially pronounced for 15-24 and 25-44 age cohorts. Copyright

Prenatal Care and Birthweight in Mexio

While a considerable literature has emerged regarding the relationship between the business cycles and mortality rates, relatively little is known regarding how economic fluctuations are related to morbidity. We investigate the relationship between business cycles and heart disease in Mexico using a unique state-level dataset of 512 observations consisting of real GDP and heart disease incidence rates (overall and by age group) from 1995 to 2010. Our study is one of the first to use a state-level panel approach to analyze the relationship between the business cycle and morbidity. Further, the state and year fixed effects employed in our econometric specification reduce possible omitted variable bias. We find a general procyclical, although largely statistically insignificant, contemporaneous relationship. However, an increase in GDP per capita sustained over five years is associated with considerable increases in the incidence rates of ischemic heart disease and hypertension. This procyclical relationship appears strongest in the states with the lowest levels of development and for the oldest age groups. Our results suggest that economic fluctuations may have important lagged effects on heart disease in developing countries.

Abortion Facility Closings and Abortion Rates in Texas

ABSTRACT We estimate the marginal impact of prenatal care (PNC) on birth outcomes in Mexico using nationally representative data on about 14 million births from 2009 to 2014. Given the possible self-selection into PNC, we attempt to identify the causal impact of PNC on birth outcomes by estimating an instrumental variable model. We find positive impacts of increased prenatal visits on birthweight (BW), length and apgar score of the newborn. Moreover, the impacts of PNC on birth outcomes differ by mother’s education, development level of the municipality where the mother resides and BW distribution. We also find suggestive evidence that PNC visits affect birth outcomes through the reduction in pre-term births.

Macroeconomic fluctuations and sexually transmitted infections in Mexico by level of state development

From 2004 to 2014, the overall abortion rate in Texas fell by almost a third from 10.7 to 7.2 abortions per 1000 women aged 10 to 49 years. During this same period, the number of abortion clinics operating at least 6 months in the year fell from 40 to 27. We examined the relationship between the abortion rate and the proximity of abortion facilities. We matched annual, county-level data on abortion rates in Texas from 2004 through 2014 with the distance from the county centroids to the nearest abortion facility in operation. Linear regressions were used to estimate the association between abortion rates and proximity to abortion facilities. The regressions controlled for county-level and state-level characteristics as well as the availability of abortion services in neighboring US states and Mexico. We found that a 100-mile increase in distance to the nearest abortion facility was associated with a 10% decrease in the overall abortion rate. The relationship appeared to be driven largely by distances of 200 miles or more. The overall relationship was generally present for whites and blacks, whereas the pattern was less clear for Hispanics. The analysis indicated that the overall association was driven largely by women aged 20 to 34 years. Decreased access to abortion facilities was associated with decreases in the abortion rate, yet the relationship varied by race/ethnicity and age. As such, regulations that affect the operational status of abortion facilities likely have differential effects on women.

Uncertainty about the Persistence of Periods with Large Price Shocks and the Optimal Reaction of the Monetary Authority

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are a major public health burden globally and especially in developing countries. The relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and STIs rates has received scant attention in the literature. In this paper we examine the relationship between economic fluctuations and the incidence rates of STIs in Mexico. Mexico offers an exceptional setting because there is a wide range of development across states and the availability of good quality data that covers a lengthy period. We assemble a unique panel of state-level annual data for the 1993-2012 period, for each of the 32 Mexican states. The data include incidence rates by STI type and age group. Economic activity is measured using GDP per capita and explanatory variables are employed to control for the supply of health care and relevant demographic characteristics. We use the human development index for each state to generate three indicator variables that reflect the level of development: top ten, middle twelve, and bottom ten. Our empirical estimation employs the data at the state-year level and includes time and state fixed effects as well as state time trends. The dependent variables in our econometric specifications are the all-ages and age-specific incidence rates of each STI. The real GDP per capital is our control variables of interest. We include interaction terms to reflect the potential for differing effects depending on whether the state in question is in the top, middle, or bottom level of development. Our estimates indicate that there are important differences along a number of dimensions in how economic fluctuations affect STI incidence rates. In terms of economic development, there is generally no relationship in the top states, a procyclical relationship in the middle states, and a mixed relationship in the bottom states. The associations also vary by type of STI, where the trichomoniasis incidence rate is largely countercylical (especially in the bottom states) and the other types (gonorrhea, herpes and syphilis) are generally procyclical. Finally, the largest relationships are mostly found in the 45-64 age group, whereas there is less of a relationship for the oldest age group. Our findings suggest that during economic expansions, public health officials may want to devote additional resources to efforts to reduce risky sexual behaviors in the middle and bottom states. These efforts could include public awareness advertising, greater efforts at STI testing, and attempts at reducing prostitution.