Filippo Arfini

An integrated PMP model to assess the development of agro-energy crops and the effect on water requirements

This paper presents an integrated model for the economic and environmental assessment of the use of natural resources when new activities (i.e. biomass crops for energy production) are introduced into the farm production plan. The methodology is based on the integration of positive mathematical programming (PMP) with the AquaCrop model developed by FAO. PMP represents farmer decision processes and evaluates how farms react to the biomass-sorghum activity option at different price levels. AquaCrop evaluates the relationship between water needs and biomass production and assesses the effect of the land allocation on water requirements at regional level. The integration of these two models assists global policy evaluation at regional level as it makes it possible to identify the economic threshold for biomass crops, the change in land allocation and total water requirement. The model can help policy makers to evaluate the impacts of variations in crop profitability and market innovations on farm profitability, land use and water consumption and the sustainability of the market scenario.

Tools for evaluating EU agricultural policies: an integrated approach

The aim of this paper is to propose a theoretical “multi-phase” strategy for analysing in dynamic terms the territorial impact of agricultural and environmental EU policy measures. This approach should also allow to evaluate the adjustment capability of farms as a function of the characteristics of different territories. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an example using data relative to the 41 provinces of Northern Italy. In the first step, a multivariate statistical analysis (MSA) consisting in Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis leads to the identification of homogeneous clusters of territorial units. The territorial mapping is conditional to a predetermined set of indicators that takes into account different aspects of agricultural development. In a second step, Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) allows to introduce the impact of agricultural policies (compensatory payments, price changes, etc.) returning different scenarios of land use and agricultural profitability. According to the outputs of the PMP, the third step consists in a new MSA for detecting any changes in the territorial mapping. Convergence analysis can then synthesise the impact of the different policy options.

Consumer Communication and Organisational Strategies for Animal Welfare by the Food and Retail Industries in Italy

SummaryConsumer Communication and Organisational Strategies for Animal Welfare by the Food and Retail Industries in Italy The treatment of animals used in production processes involves ethical principles as well as food safety and has become increasingly a focus of debate. Based on survey evidence, this article examines consumer communication and organisational strategies regarding animal welfare (AW) by food processors and retailers in Italy. It identifies three levels of commitment to animal welfare: full sensitivity with regard to ethical issues and products; animal welfare seen solely as an aspect of product quality; and indifference where animal welfare is considered purely a legal obligation. This classification could be a starting point for institutional intervention. ‘Active’ behaviour shows that AW can be used as a means of organisational renewal of supply chain mechanisms and thus could be supported by public institutions. At the same time, an effective implementation of EU AW policy requires public intervention to ensure that consumers receive the information they need to shop with awareness of AW issues. It is only through greater awareness of AW friendly techniques and their implications that willingness to pay among Italian consumers will increase. This in turn will provide the incentives for producers, processors and retailers to show more interest in AW-friendly techniques.

Impact Assessment of Greening and the Issue of Nitrogen-Fixing Crops Evidence from Northern Italy

In the CAP reform 2014–2020, the ‘green’ component of direct payments remunerates environmental services and includes three greening requirements: crop diversification, maintenance of permanent grassland and establishment of an ecological focus area (EFA). This paper evaluates the effect of ‘greening’ and payment redistribution on farm incomes and land use, considering two different hypotheses of the EFA weighting factor (Ewf) for nitrogen-fixing crops. The evaluation is developed at farm level by a positive mathematical programming (PMP) model and applied to more than 2,000 farms in northern Italy. The results show that crop diversification will mainly affect the cereal area, with significant reductions in maize and wheat, while the EFA requirement, especially with the lower Ewf, will boost the spread of protein crops. Nevertheless, ‘greening’ does not significantly affect farm income, while greater economic effects are mainly due to the redistribution of direct payments.

Incorporating risk in a positive mathematical programming framework: a dual approach

In this study we develop a new methodological proposal to incorporate risk into a farm-level positive mathematical programming (PMP) model. We estimate simultaneously the farm nonlinear cost function and a farmer-specific coefficient of absolute risk aversion as well as the resource shadow prices. The model is applied to a sample of representative arable crop farms from the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy. The estimation results confirm the calibration ability of the model and reveal the values of the individual risk aversion coefficients. We use the model to simulate different scenarios of crop price volatility, in order to explore the potential risk management role of an agri-environmental scheme.

Leaves and Cigarettes: Modelling the Tobacco Industry

A vast literature analyzed the tobacco industry in the past: however, most of the previous studies dealt with final demand or crop production. Instead, there are only a few works which examined the whole tobacco industry in general, and the Italian and Greek ones in particular. This book aims at filling this gap: this contribution is even more needed if we take into account that tobacco consumption is currently decreasing, but there is the possibility to grow tobacco for other purposes thanks to biotechnologies. In this context, quantitative models of the tobacco industry can be of great help for policy making. To achieve this aim, the book is organized in three parts which describe three quantitative approaches: I. An Econometric Modelling approach. The main advantage of econometric methods is the possibility to submit the models and their results to statistic validation. Moreover, econometric models can be used for simulation and/or forecasting exercises, and their performances can be checked with proper statistical tests, too. The empirical application with Italian tobacco data shows the interesting properties of this methodology in terms of forecasting performances and statistical properties. II. A Linear Programming approach. The Positive Mathematical Programming, or PMP, is a methodology used in this work to simulate the effects of the EU reform scenarios on a sample of Italian farms. The PMP is able to reproduce the economic and production framework of the farms within the sample group, and estimate the future production choices, based on the changes in economic convenience of tobacco crops with respect to possible alternative production activities within the farm. III. An Input-Output Matrix approach. In order to investigate the possible impacts of different scenarios, an Input-Output model at the national and regional level is developed and used. In this way employment, output and household income effects at the national and regional level can be revealed, while a linear programming model helps to identify the impacts on tobacco producing farms and examine the existence of possible alternative cultivation replacements to tobacco. This book can be therefore of interest to both public policy makers, as well as academics and private investors, involved in the tobacco industry.

How Do Firms Use Consumer Science to Target Consumer Communication? The Case of Animal Welfare

Abstract An increasing awareness of some market segments toward animal welfare has led some agri-food companies of the pork supply chain to consider alternatives to the technique of castration, which is used to prevent boar taint. One alternative is represented by immunocastration, or vaccination against the male hormone GnRH. Some research is available on consumer perception of immunocastration but it rarely involves Italian consumers and does not analyze consumer perception of immunocastration when it is applied to pork meat for traditional products. The research question of this chapter is: what would Italian consumers reaction be if immunocastration was used for pork meat for traditional products? Findings reveal that Italian consumers are reluctant to accept innovation when it is applied to traditional food products. Nevertheless, innovation that improve animal welfare is accepted by consumers of traditional products provided that institutions guarantee their involvement in quality, safety and ethical attributes assurance.