Finnvid Prescher

Optimal Clone Number for Seed Orchards with Tested Clones

Abstract The optimal number of clones in seed orchards is discussed. A model is constructed to maximize a goodness criterion (“benefit”) for seed orchards. This criterion is a function of: 1) the number of tested genotypes available for selection and planted in seed orchard; 2) the contribution to pollination from: a) the ramet itself; b) the closest neighbors; c) the rest of the orchard and sources outside the orchard (contamination); 3) variation among genotypes for fertility; 4) frequency of selfing; 5) production of selfed genotypes; 6) gene diversity (= status number); 7) influence of contamination; 8) genetic variation among candidates; 9) correlation between selection criterion (e.g. height in progeny test) and value for forestry (e.g. production in forests from the orchard); and 10) the number of clones harvested. Numeric values of the entries are discussed, and values were chosen to be relevant for scenarios with Swedish conifers (focusing on Scots pine) and for loblolly pine. Benefit was maximized considering the number of clones. The optimum was 16 clones for the Swedish scenario, while less for the loblolly pine scenario. The optimum was rather broad, thus it is not essential to deploy the exact optimum, and an approximate optimum will do. A sensitivity analyses was performed to evaluate the importance of the likely uncertainty and variation in different entries. Quantification of the benefit of gene diversity is important. Other significant considerations are the genetic variance in the goal character and the ability to predict it, as well as the impact of selfing and the variation in reproductive success between clones. Twenty clones is suggested as a thumb rule for Swedish conifers.

Female fertility variation in mature Pinus sylvestris clonal seed orchards

Abstract Female fertility is the basis for the output of seeds from clonal orchards and its variation is of major interest for the economics and biology of seed orchards, especially for the efficiency and diversity of seed orchard crops. Assessments of female fertility variation in 10 mature (>15 years old) seed orchards of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) were evaluated and compared. Depending on the individual orchard, fertility variation for each clone was assessed in slightly different ways, e.g. number of strobili, cones, seeds or litre of cones per ramet. Assessments in five of the orchards were made over consecutive years. The main result was that the clonal variation in mean female fertility per surviving ramet was lower than expected from the literature; the Kang–Lindgren sibling coefficient (Ψ) within individual years averaged 1.35. The variation between ramets within clones and years was of similar magnitude as that between clones. Clone by year interactions were noticeable, but were slightly lower than the variation between as well as that within clones in individual years. There was considerable variation in the variance components between years. The limited variation in female fertility indicated that it should not be a selection criterion when selecting clones for a seed orchard. Furthermore, it will not result in large differences between clones in seed set or large reductions in gene diversity in productive Scots pine seed orchards.

Transfer effects on volume production of Pinus sylvestris L.: A response surface model

Results are presented from a 30‐year‐old Scots pine provenance trial series covering all Sweden. Variation in total yield is studied and the effect of transfer on this trait. The results show that significant differences exist between provenances in almost all trials. The variance component for provenance effects is about 60% of the total variation. Repeatabilities are found to be high, indicating reliability of data. Based on a response surface model and a contour plotting procedure, transfer functions for southern and northern Sweden respectively, are built. For southern Sweden, a transfer of ±1° combined with an altitudinal downward transfer of 100–200 meters, is proposed. In northern Sweden, no optimum transfer range is found. The function, however, shows that a southward and upward transfer, in combination, gives remarkable gains in total yield.

Advanced generation seed orchards’ turnover as affected by breeding advance, time to sexual maturity and costs, with special reference to Pinus sylvestris in Sweden

Abstract The effect of various biological, genetic, economic and management factors relevant to advanced generation seed orchard establishment was investigated using numerical estimates for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Sweden. Factors considered were planting density, rate of genetic advance in the breeding population, timing of first seed collection, seed value, seed production cost (stratified to establishment, annual management, cone harvest and seed extraction), orchard rotation age and contamination level. The developed model demonstrated its utility in studying and evaluating various economic and biological options associated with advanced generation seed orchard establishment/turnover. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the robustness of the developed model through various arbitrarily changes in genetic gain advances, establishment, management and seed production, particularly those associated with cone harvests from upper crown and costs. The Swedish Scots pine case study produced results supporting faster turnover of seed orchard generations (30 vs 40 years) with shorter orchard lifespan (early start of seed cone after 8 years vs 15 years) delivering higher gain through minimizing the genetic gain differential between the breeding and production populations and allowing the capture of this gain for inclusion in the seed orchards. Orchard planting densities of 400 and 600 grafts per hectare produced similar results with marginal differences, and the latter was recommended for future orchard establishment.

Is linear deployment of clones optimal under different clonal outcrossing contributions in seed orchards

Self-pollen seldom results in vital genotypes and can thus be regarded as unimportant. Large-sized clones (clones with many ramets) are more exposed to self-pollen and spread more self-pollen and thus contribute relatively less than small-sized clones. The size of clones required to maximize genetic gain at given diversity, considering that only outcrossing contributes to successful gametes, was derived for tested clones intended to establish a Norway spruce (Picea abies) seed orchard. The derived optimal deployment was compared with linear deployment according to Lindgren and Matheson (Silvae Genet 35:173–177, 1986), where the size of a clone is deployed proportional to its breeding value. The study covered a range of effective numbers between 5 and 50. The results suggest that linear deployment is a good approximation to optimal deployment when only outcrossing is considered. The difference between the two strategies is decreased by increasing clone number and is negligible except at low effective numbers.

Estimation of Clonal Variation in Seed Cone Production Over Time in a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) Seed Orchard

Abstract Possibilities for early selection of clones for future seed cone production were studied in a clonal seed orchard of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in northern Sweden over the first 30 years following establishment. The annual data were modelled as series of bivariate analyses. The correlations between cone production of clones in any individual year and that of a previous year, and cumulative cone production over all years were studied. The corresponding multivariate analysis for a full data fit simultaneously was best estimated with a genetic distance-based power model (AR). The genetic (variation among clones) and environmental variation were of the same magnitude. The genetic correlations were larger than the phenotypic correlations and both increased with orchard age. Basing selection of clones on a single observation at an early age to improve future cone production was not effective, but efficiency increased if cumulative cone count over many years was used. Year-to-year genetic correlations indicated that early forecasts by clone of cone production at mature ages are highly uncertain. Reliable predictions (moderate correlations) could be achieved only if based on rather mature grafts, 14 or more years after establishment.