Flavio Cannavò

Multiparametric study of the February-April 2013 paroxysmal phase of Mt. Etna New South-East crater

European FP7 MED-SUV (MEditerranean SUpersite Volcanoes). Grant Number: 308665 European Research Council European FP7 (FP/2007-2013)/ERC. Grant Number: 279802 SIGMA (Sistema Integrato di sensori in ambiente cloud per la Gestione Multirischio Avanzata)

Pressurization and depressurization phases inside the plumbing system of Mount Etna volcano: Evidence from a multiparametric approach

During 2013 Mount Etna volcano experienced intense eruptive activity at the summit craters, foremost at the New Southeast Crater and to a minor degree at the Voragine and Bocca Nuova (BN), which took place in two cycles, February–April and September–December. In this work, we mainly focus on the period between these cycles, applying a multiparametric approach. The period from the end of April to 5 September showed a gradual increase in the amplitude of long-period (LP) events and volcanic tremor, a slight inflation testified by both tilt and GPS data, and a CO2 flux increase. Such variations were interpreted as due to a gradual pressurization of the plumbing system, from the shallowest part, where LP and volcanic tremor are located, down to about 3–9 km below sea level, pressure source depths obtained by both geodetic and CO2 data. On 5 September, at the same time as a large explosion at BN, we observed an instantaneous variation of the aforementioned signals (decrease in amplitude of LP events and volcanic tremor, slight deflation, and CO2 flux decrease) and the activation of a new infrasonic source located at BN. In the light of it, the BN explosion probably caused the instantaneous end of the pressurization, and the opening of a new vent at BN, that has become a new steady source of infrasonic events. This apparently slight change in the plumbing system also led to the gradual resumption of activity at the New Southeast Crater, culminating with the second lava fountain cycle of 2013.

A comprehensive interpretative model of slow slip events on Mt. Etna's eastern flank

Starting off from a review of previous literature on kinematic models of the unstable eastern flank of Mt. Etna, we propose a new model. The model is based on our analysis of a large quantity of multidisciplinary data deriving from an extensive and diverse network of INGV monitoring devices deployed along the slopes of the volcano. Our analysis had a twofold objective: first, investigating the origin of the recently observed slow-slip events on the eastern flank of Mt. Etna; and second, defining a general kinematic model for the instability of this area of the volcano. To this end, we investigated the 2008–2013 period using data collected from different geochemical, geodetic, and seismic networks, integrated with the tectonic and geologic features of the volcano and including the volcanic activity during the observation period. The complex correlations between the large quantities of multidisciplinary data have given us the opportunity to infer, as outlined in this work, that the fluids of volcanic origin and their interrelationship with aquifers, tectonic and morphological features play a dominant role in the large scale instability of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna. Furthermore, we suggest that changes in the strain distribution due to volcanic inflation/deflation cycles are closely connected to changes in shallow depth fluid circulation. Finally, we propose a general framework for both the short and long term modeling of the large flank displacements observed.

Evidences of a contractional pattern along the northern rim of the Hyblean Plateau (Sicily, Italy) from GPS data

In this paper we present the main results inferred from GPS data collected between 1998.00 and 2009.78 along the northern rim of the Hyblean Plateau from 9 continuous and 23 survey-mode sites. From a geological point of view, this area is of great interest because 1) it represents an important piece of the collision front between Nubia and Eurasia 2) it is very close to the biggest European volcano Mount Etna and 3) it has been hit by strong earthquakes in the past (1169 and 1693) that struggled the cities of Catania, Siracusa and Ragusa provoking tens of thousands of casualties. We have found that the ground deformation pattern clearly defines an area of prevailing contraction along the northern rim of the Hyblean Plateau with a maximum negative strain-rate of about 0.14µstrain/yr in agreement with both geological and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data. In addition, a transition to extensional regime is acting toward the central sector of the plateau. The velocity field referred to the Eurasian frame indicates that a large part of the plateau is dominated by a 5.4mm/yr northward motion.

The unusual 28 December 2014 dike-fed paroxysm at Mount Etna: Timing and mechanism from a multidisciplinary perspective

Between 2011 and 2013, there were 43 lava fountain episodes from Mount Etnas New South-East summit crater (NSEC). In 2014, this intense activity was supplanted by sporadic Strombolian explosions and the opening of an eruptive fissure between July and August. The only lava fountaining episode of the year occurred on 28 December; this was characterized by the emplacement of a shallow dike that, at the surface, fed two distinct lava flows from an ENE-WSW trending eruptive fissure. Here we provide a detailed picture of the onset of the dike emplacement, as well as the mechanism driving its migration, using a multidisciplinary data set based on seismic, geodetic, geochemical, and volcanological observations. The dike emplacement was preceded by a pressurization of the magmatic plumbing system recorded from August 2014 on. This pressurization has been modeled as a vertically elongated magmatic source located beneath the summit craters at ~4.5 km below sea level. From September to October, magma rising was also detected by seismic and geochemical data that highlighted pressurization of the shallower portion of the plumbing system. We suggest that the 28 December 2014 dike emplacement resulted from a modification of the preexisting NSEC shallow plumbing system, largely due to drainage of the main shallow conduit during the July–August 2014 eruptive fissure activity. Such a structural modification might have created the conditions for magma emplacement as a dike-like structure.

Real Time Tracking of Magmatic Intrusions by means of Ground Deformation Modeling during Volcanic Crises

Volcano observatories provide near real-time information and, ultimately, forecasts about volcano activity. For this reason, multiple physical and chemical parameters are continuously monitored. Here, we present a new method to efficiently estimate the location and evolution of magmatic sources based on a stream of real-time surface deformation data, such as High-Rate GPS, and a free-geometry magmatic source model. The tool allows tracking inflation and deflation sources in time, providing estimates of where a volcano might erupt, which is important in understanding an on-going crisis. We show a successful simulated application to the pre-eruptive period of May 2008, at Mount Etna (Italy). The proposed methodology is able to track the fast dynamics of the magma migration by inverting the real-time data within seconds. This general method is suitable for integration in any volcano observatory. The method provides first order unsupervised and realistic estimates of the locations of magmatic sources and of potential eruption sites, information that is especially important for civil protection purposes.

Local geodetic and seismic energy balance for shallow earthquake prediction

Earthquake analysis for prediction purposes is a delicate and still open problem largely debated among scientists. In this work, we want to show that a successful time-predictable model is possible if based on large instrumental data from dense monitoring networks. To this aim, we propose a new simple data-driven and quantitative methodology which takes into account the accumulated geodetic strain and the seismically-released strain to calculate a balance of energies. The proposed index quantifies the state of energy of the selected area and allows us to evaluate better the ingoing potential seismic risk, giving a new tool to read recurrence of small-scale and shallow earthquakes. In spite of its intrinsic simple formulation, the application of the methodology has been successfully simulated in the Eastern flank of Mt. Etna (Italy) by tuning it in the period 2007–2011 and testing it in the period 2012–2013, allowing us to predict, within days, the earthquakes with highest magnitude.

Defining Geodetic Reference Frame using Matlab ® : PlatEMotion 2.0

We describe the main features of the developed software tool, namely PlatE-Motion 2.0 (PEM2), which allows inferring the Euler pole parameters by inverting the observed velocities at a set of sites located on a rigid block (inverse problem). PEM2 allows also calculating the expected velocity value for any point located on the Earth providing an Euler pole (direct problem). PEM2 is the updated version of a previous software tool initially developed for easy-to-use file exchange with the GAMIT/GLOBK software package. The software tool is developed in Matlab® framework and, as the previous version, includes a set of MATLAB functions (m-files), GUIs (fig-files), map data files (mat-files) and user’s manual as well as some example input files. New changes in PEM2 include (1) some bugs fixed, (2) improvements in the code, (3) improvements in statistical analysis, (4) new input/output file formats. In addition, PEM2 can be now run under the majority of operating systems. The tool is open source and freely available for the scientific community.

Paroxysmal Explosions, Lava Fountains and Ash Plumes at Etna Volcano: Eruptive Processes and Hazard Implications

Between 2011 and 2015, 49 paroxysmal explosive episodes occurred at two of Mt Etnas five summit craters: the New South-East Crater (NSEC) and the Voragine (VOR). At the NSEC, each event was usually preceded by Strombolian activity, increasing in intensity with time, and climaxed with powerful lava fountains, often accompanied by lava overflows from the crater rim and by the development of ash plumes that spread several kilometres above and hundreds of kilometres away from the crater. In turn, the ash plume caused fallout and often disruption to airports and traffic on the motorways well beyond the area of the volcano itself, impacting the stability of buildings and caused public health issues. The four episodes at VOR were more intense and of greater magnitude compared to the NSEC events, resulting in a higher ash plume, and were produced by a deeper source region. In this paper, we examine the features of the 40 episodes occurring at the NSEC during 2011-2013, and of the 4 events at VOR in December 2015. We study these paroxysmal explosions using geophysical monitoring data, characterise the episodes, and analyse all available data statistically, with the aim of recognising the eruptive processes and extracting common parameters that may prove useful for hazard assessment and risk mitigation.

Present-day kinematics and deformation processes in the southern Tyrrhenian region: new insights on the northern Sicily extensional belt

We performed a new analysis of updated and accurate sets of seismic and GNSS data relative to the southern Tyrrhenian region. Detailed velocity field and crustal strain distribution coming from integration of episodic and continuous measurements at more than 160 geodetic sites (spanning the 1994-2015 period) have been evaluated together with the spatial distribution of recent seismicity and an updated catalogue of waveform inversion fault-plane solutions relative to the period 1976-2014. In agreement with previous investigations, we have found that the kinematics of the study area is quite homogeneous except for the north-eastern corner of Sicily which moves almost coherently with southern Calabria in response to the SE-ward rollback of the Ionian slab. The rest of the study region shows a NNW-trending velocity field in agreement with the direction of the Nubia-Eurasia convergence and it is mainly interested by a major compressive domain. NNW-oriented compression is particularly highlighted by seismic data along the E-W trending seismic belt located in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea. In the framework of such compressive regime, the E-W trending extensional domain of northern Sicily is also clearly depicted both by seismic and geodetic data. The cause of this extensional domain framed inside a mainly compressive one represents an open question in the recent scientific debate. Comparisons between our results and literature information on regional geology and crustal structure led us to investigate whether the extension could occur as local response to the thrusting dynamics of the southern Tyrrhenian belt, favoured by the presence of pre-existing weakness zones. We then propose a first attempt to evaluate such a possible causal relationship by means of Finite Element Method (FEM) and Coulomb Stress Change (CSC) modelling. In particular, we adopted a FEM approach to investigate the deformation pattern produced by thrust faulting of southern Tyrrhenian belt, along a 2D profile crossing both the compressive belt and the extensional one in northern Sicily. We also estimated the CSC due to the thrust faulting on normal receiving faults fairly reproducing pre-existing structures of northern Sicily. Modelling results indicate that the thrust faulting activity along the Southern Tyrrhenian compressive margin could be effective in promoting extensional processes in northern Sicily. We have so shown that the local response to thrust faulting activity may concur, even in combination with other processes, to generate the crustal stretching of northern Sicily.