Florian Detsch

Predictors of elevational biodiversity gradients change from single taxa to the multi-taxa community level.

The factors determining gradients of biodiversity are a fundamental yet unresolved topic in ecology. While diversity gradients have been analysed for numerous single taxa, progress towards general explanatory models has been hampered by limitations in the phylogenetic coverage of past studies. By parallel sampling of 25 major plant and animal taxa along a 3.7 km elevational gradient on Mt. Kilimanjaro, we quantify cross-taxon consensus in diversity gradients and evaluate predictors of diversity from single taxa to a multi-taxa community level. While single taxa show complex distribution patterns and respond to different environmental factors, scaling up diversity to the community level leads to an unambiguous support for temperature as the main predictor of species richness in both plants and animals. Our findings illuminate the influence of taxonomic coverage for models of diversity gradients and point to the importance of temperature for diversification and species coexistence in plant and animal communities.

A Comparative Study of Cross-Product NDVI Dynamics in the Kilimanjaro Region—A Matter of Sensor, Degradation Calibration, and Significance

While satellite-based monitoring of vegetation activity at the earth’s surface is of vital importance for many eco-climatological applications, the degree of agreement among certain sensors and products providing estimates of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been found to vary considerably. In order to assess the extent of such differences in highly heterogeneous terrain, we analyze and compare intra-annual seasonal fluctuations and long-term monotonic trends (2003–2012) in the Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania. The considered NDVI datasets include the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products from Terra and Aqua, Collections 5 and 6, and the 3rd Generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) product. The degree of agreement in seasonal fluctuations is assessed by calculating a pairwise Index of Association (IOAs), whereas long-term trends are derived from the trend-free pre-whitened Mann–Kendall test. On the seasonal scale, the two Terra-MODIS products (and, accordingly, the two Aqua-MODIS products) are best associated with each other, indicating that the seasonal signal remained largely unaffected by the new Collection 6 calibration approach. On the long-term scale, we find that the negative impacts of band ageing on Terra-MODIS NDVI have been accounted for in Collection 6, which now distinctly outweighs Aqua-MODIS in terms of greening trends. GIMMS NDVI, by contrast, fails to capture small-scale seasonal and trend patterns that are characteristic for the highly fragmented landscape which is likely owing to the coarse spatial resolution. As a short digression, we also demonstrate that the amount of false discoveries in the determined trend fraction is distinctly higher for p < 0.05 ( 52.6 % ) than for p < 0.001 ( 2.2 % ) which should point the way for any future studies focusing on the reliable deduction of long-term monotonic trends.

Multidecadal Trends and Interannual Variability of Rainfall as Observed from Five Lowland Stations at Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

AbstractFuture rainfall dynamics in the Kilimanjaro region will mainly be influenced by both global climate and local land-cover change. An increase in rainfall is expected, but rising temperatures are also predicted for the ecosystem. In situ rainfall of five stations is analyzed to determine seasonal variability and multidecadal trends in the lowlands and lower elevations of the Kilimanjaro region. Monthly rainfall totals are obtained from the Tanzanian Meteorological Agency, from two mission stations, and from a sugar cane plantation. The datasets of the two mission stations cover time spans of 64 and 62 years, starting in 1940 and 1942, while rainfall data obtained from the Tanzanian Meteorological Agency and from the sugar cane plantation start in 1973 and 1974 and thus cover 40–41 years. In one out of five stations, a significant weak negative linear long-term trend in rainfall is observable, which is also evident in the other locations but is not significant. However, humid and dry decades are evid...

A glimpse at short-term controls of evapotranspiration along the southern slopes of Kilimanjaro

Future climate characteristics of the southern Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania, are mainly determined by local land-use and global climate change. Reinforcing increasing dryness throughout the twentieth century, ongoing land transformation processes emphasize the need for a proper understanding of the regional-scale water budget and possible implications on related ecosystem functioning and services. Here, we present an analysis of scintillometer-based evapotranspiration (ET) covering seven distinct habitat types across a massive climate gradient from the colline savanna woodlands to the upper-mountain Helichrysum zone (940 to 3960 m.a.s.l.). Random forest-based mean variable importance indicates an outstanding significance of net radiation (Rnet) on the observed ET across all elevation levels. Accordingly, topography and frequent cloud/fog events have a dampening effect at high elevations, whereas no such constraints affect the energy and moisture-rich submontane coffee/grassland level. By contrast, long-term moisture availability is likely to impose restrictions upon evapotranspirative net water loss in savanna, which particularly applies to the pronounced dry season. At plot scale, ET can thereby be approximated reasonably using Rnet, soil heat flux, and to a lesser degree, vapor pressure deficit and rainfall as predictor variables (R2 0.59 to 1.00). While multivariate regression based on pooled meteorological data from all plots proves itself useful for predicting hourly ET rates across a broader range of ecosystems (R2 = 0.71), additional gains in explained variance can be achieved when vegetation characteristics as seen from the NDVI are considered (R2 = 0.87). To sum up, our results indicate that valuable insights into land cover-specific ET dynamics, including underlying drivers, may be derived even from explicitly short-term measurements in an ecologically highly diverse landscape.