Francesca Modena

Economic Insecurity and Fertility Intentions: The Case of Italy

We aim to provide an explanation for the combination of the relatively low female participation rates and lowest-low fertility levels in Italy. Starting from the assumption that childbearing decisions also depend on uncertainty about future employment, income, and wealth, we empirically assess how fertility intentions are affected by job instability, which may severely compromise the employment stability of workers, and economic disadvantages in terms of household income and wealth, which may imply insufficient means to deal with potential adverse future events, thereby generating in the household feelings of anxiety and economic insecurity. We show that the instability of womens work status (i.e., the holding of occasional and precarious jobs) significantly discourages the decision to attempt having a first child. Low levels of household wealth significantly and positively influence the decision to postpone attempting a first child. The chances of further childbirth are significantly and negatively influenced by household income insecurity.

Changing Labour Market Opportunities for Young People in Italy and the Role of the Family of Origin

This paper considers the increased incidence of insecure job conditions for young individuals entering the Italian labour market and their chances of moving to a more secure job after a reasonable period of time. In particular, we investigate empirically whether and how long-term changes in labour market institutions and conditions have altered the role of the family of origin in both labour market entry and subsequent transitions. We use the Italian Households Longitudinal Study (Ilfi) and show that employment opportunities have changed significantly in Italy over the past three decades (from the late 1970s to the early 2000s). For an increasing share of young adults precariousness extends over a fairly long period of their working life. The family of origin reduced the probability of insecurity both in the early 1980s and during the 1990s, but in a different way: in the early 1980s, it had an effect in the entry year, but not subsequently; after the implementation of the Treu reform, its effect appeared only in the years following that of entry. Our overall results suggest that the rapid expansion of insecure contractual arrangements in the 1990s-early 2000s has increased the difficulty of transitioning to a “better” job condition (i.e. secure employment). This has enhanced the role of the family of origin in overcoming the difficulty and generated new inequalities among young Italians.

Leaving home and housing prices. The experience of Italian youth emancipation

This paper provides an explanation for the postponement of youth emancipation in the Italian context mainly characterized by a sharp increase in both house and rent prices together with stagnant disposable income over the past decade. We first assemble a unique database related to the housing and rental market which is then matched with household characteristics. We find that the probability of leaving home decreases by about half percentage point and one percentage point for males and females, respectively, for a one-standard-deviation change in house prices. Together with property prices, local labour markets play a prominent role in determining decisions by unemployed youths to postpone the transition. The youngest cohort was mainly affected by the real estate market evolution that occurred in the last decade.

Measuring (In)Security in the Event of Unemployment: Are We Forgetting Someone?

In this paper we argue that the consequences of the unemployment risk may be quite different according to the number of household members who depend on the income of the earners. We propose new measures for the aggregate economic (in)security related to employment risk, that take into account the household composition: a per-earner amount corresponding to the aggregate equivalent expected loss, and the inactive-unemployed dependency rate (IUDR), i.e. the average number of persons not in the labor force that each unemployed has to provide for (beyond herself). Both have a simple interpretation but the latter has an advantage in terms of data-requirement. Our results suggest that the overall level of insecurity associated with similar unemployment and replacement rates increases if we consider all the individuals in the households that are potentially affected by this risk. Moreover, the use of net rather than gross incomes and of micro-level data changes quite significantly the relative position of countries in terms of insecurity levels.

Household Responses to Economic and Demographic Shocks: Marginal Logit Analysis using Indonesian Data

Abstract We analyse the responses of Indonesian households to demographic and economic shocks and examine how these responses vary in relation to the households permanent income and the extent to which the shock is common across the community. Households respond in different ways to demographic and economic shocks. Economic shocks are more likely to result in a labour supply response from the household and this probability is further increased if the shock is common. For rural households, use of savings increases with permanent income. The article also examines the role of the interviewer in influencing survey responses.

Do Cooperative Enterprises Create Social Trust

This paper contributes to the literature by carrying out the first empirical investigation into the role of different types of enterprises in the creation of social trust. Drawing on a unique dataset collected through the administration of a questionnaire to a representative sample of the population of the Italian Province of Trento in March 2011, we find that cooperatives are the only type of enterprise where the work environment fosters the social trust of workers.

Shock Responses of Rural Households in Indonesia: A Multinomial Logit Analysis

We use Indonesian survey data to analyze the response of rural households to demographic and economic shocks in relation to the household’s permanent income and the extent to which the shock is common across the community. Economic shocks are more likely to result in a labour supply response from the household and this probability is further increased if the shock is common. Use of savings is only important for households with high permanent income. The paper also proposes a new model, the Poisson Multinomial Model, for the analysis of survey data which allow multiple responses.