Francesco Checchi

Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings

Swine Flu Benchmark The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on 29 April 2009, a level-5 pandemic alert for a strain of H1N1 influenza originating in pigs in Mexico and transmitting from human to human in several countries. Fraser et al. (p. 1557, published online 11 May; see the cover) amassed a team of experts in Mexico and WHO to make an initial assessment of the outbreak with a view to guiding future policy. The outbreak appears to have originated in mid-February in the village of La Gloria, Veracruz, where over half the population suffered acute respiratory illness, affecting more than 61% of children under 15 years old in the community. The basic reproduction number (the number of people infected per patient) is in the range of 1.5—similar or less than that of the pandemics of 1918, 1957, and 1968. There remain significant uncertainties about the severity of this outbreak, which makes it difficult to compare the economic and societal costs of intervention with lives saved and the risks of generating antiviral resistance. An international collaborative effort has analyzed the initial dynamics of the swine flu outbreak. A novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread rapidly across the globe. Judging its pandemic potential is difficult with limited data, but nevertheless essential to inform appropriate health responses. By analyzing the outbreak in Mexico, early data on international spread, and viral genetic diversity, we make an early assessment of transmissibility and severity. Our estimates suggest that 23,000 (range 6000 to 32,000) individuals had been infected in Mexico by late April, giving an estimated case fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.4% (range: 0.3 to 1.8%) based on confirmed and suspected deaths reported to that time. In a community outbreak in the small community of La Gloria, Veracruz, no deaths were attributed to infection, giving an upper 95% bound on CFR of 0.6%. Thus, although substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears less than that seen in the 1918 influenza pandemic but comparable with that seen in the 1957 pandemic. Clinical attack rates in children in La Gloria were twice that in adults (<15 years of age: 61%; ≥15 years: 29%). Three different epidemiological analyses gave basic reproduction number (R0) estimates in the range of 1.4 to 1.6, whereas a genetic analysis gave a central estimate of 1.2. This range of values is consistent with 14 to 73 generations of human-to-human transmission having occurred in Mexico to late April. Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than that of seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics.

Supervised versus unsupervised intake of six-dose artemether-lumefantrine for treatment of acute, uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Mbarara, Uganda: a randomised trial

BACKGROUND The six-dose regimen of artemether-lumefantrine is effective and is among combination therapies prioritised to replace antimalarials that no longer work in Africa. However, its effectiveness has not been assessed in the field, and could be compromised by poor adherence, incorrect timing of doses, and insufficient intake of fatty foods with every dose. Our aim, therefore, was to assess the effectiveness of artemether-lumefantrine prescribed under routine outpatient conditions, compared with its efficacy when given under supervision to inpatients with acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria. METHODS We did a randomised trial to compare the efficacy, safety, and pharmacokinetics of artemether-lumefantrine when given in a supervised (all doses observed with fatty-food intake; n=313) or unsupervised (first dose supervised followed by outpatient treatment with nutritional advice; n=644) setting to patients of all ages (weight >10 kg) with acute, uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Mbarara, Uganda. Our primary endpoint was 28 day, PCR-adjusted, parasitological cure rate. Analysis was by intention to treat and evaluability analysis. FINDINGS 38 patients were lost to follow-up and one withdrew consent. Day-28 cure rates were 97.7% (296 of 303) and 98.0% (603 of 615) in the supervised and unsupervised groups, respectively. We recorded 15 non-severe, drug-related adverse events, all of which resolved. INTERPRETATION Artemether-lumefantrine has a high cure rate irrespective of whether given under supervision with food or under conditions of routine clinic practice. If used as first-line treatment, artemether-lumefantrine could make a substantial contribution to malaria control in Africa, though cost is an issue.

Health-care needs of people affected by conflict: future trends and changing frameworks

This article discusses the health-care needs of people in conflict-affected settings. It outlines the four key areas in which new policies and practices are necessary including: delivery of health services to inaccessible conflict-affected people address chronic diseases in conflicts improve health services for conflict-affected people in urban areas and changes in surveillance assessment and monitoring of conflict-affected populations.

Violence and mortality in West Darfur, Sudan (2003-04): epidemiological evidence from four surveys.

BACKGROUND Violence in Darfur, Sudan, has rendered more than one million people internally displaced. An epidemiological study of the effect of armed incursions on mortality in Darfur was needed to provide a basis for appropriate assistance to internally displaced people. METHODS Between April and June, 2004, we did retrospective cluster surveys among 215?400 internally displaced people in four sites of West Darfur (Zalingei, Murnei, Niertiti, El Geneina). Mortality recall periods covered both the pre-displacement and post-displacement periods in Zalingei, Murnei, and Niertiti, but not in El Geneina. Heads of households provided dates, causes, and places of deaths, and described the family structure. FINDINGS Before arrival at displacement sites, mortality rates (expressed as deaths per 10?000 per day), were 5.9 (95% CI 2.2-14.9) in Zalingei, 9.5 (6.4-14.0) in Murnei, and 7.3 (3.2-15.7) in Niertiti. Violence caused 68-93% of these deaths. People who were killed were mostly adult men (relative risk 29.1-117.9 compared with children younger than 15 years), but included women and children. Most households fled because of direct village attacks. In camps, mortality rates fell but remained above the emergency benchmark, with a peak of 5.6 in El Geneina. Violence persisted even after displacement. Age and sex pyramids of surviving populations were skewed, with a deficit in men. INTERPRETATION This study, which was done in a difficult setting, provides epidemiological evidence of this conflicts effect on civilians, confirming the serious nature of the crisis, and reinforcing findings from other war contexts.

Three Drug Combinations for Late-Stage Trypanosoma brucei gambiense Sleeping Sickness: A Randomized Clinical Trial in Uganda

Objectives: Our objective was to compare the efficacy and safety of three drug combinations for the treatment of late-stage human African trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense. Design: This trial was a randomized, open-label, active control, parallel clinical trial comparing three arms. Setting: The study took place at the Sleeping Sickness Treatment Center run by Médecins Sans Frontières at Omugo, Arua District, Uganda Participants: Stage 2 patients diagnosed in Northern Uganda were screened for inclusion and a total of 54 selected. Interventions: Three drug combinations were given to randomly assigned patients: melarsoprol-nifurtimox (M+N), melarsoprol-eflornithine (M+E), and nifurtimox-eflornithine (N+E). Dosages were uniform: intravenous (IV) melarsoprol 1.8 mg/kg/d, daily for 10 d; IV eflornithine 400 mg/kg/d, every 6 h for 7 d; oral nifurtimox 15 (adults) or 20 (children <15 y) mg/kg/d, every 8 h for 10 d. Patients were followed up for 24 mo. Outcome Measures: Outcomes were cure rates and adverse events attributable to treatment. Results: Randomization was performed on 54 patients before enrollment was suspended due to unacceptable toxicity in one of the three arms. Cure rates obtained with the intention to treat analysis were M+N 44.4%, M+E 78.9%, and N+E 94.1%, and were significantly higher with N+E (p = 0.003) and M+E (p = 0.045) than with M+N. Adverse events were less frequent and less severe with N+E, resulting in fewer treatment interruptions and no fatalities. Four patients died who were taking melarsoprol-nifurtimox and one who was taking melarsoprol-eflornithine. Conclusions: The N+E combination appears to be a promising first-line therapy that may improve treatment of sleeping sickness, although the results from this interrupted study do not permit conclusive interpretations. Larger studies are needed to continue the evaluation of this drug combination in the treatment of T. b. gambiense sleeping sickness.

Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness

BackgroundThe durations of untreated stage 1 (early stage, haemo-lymphatic) and stage 2 (late stage, meningo-encephalitic) human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) due to Trypanosoma brucei gambiense are poorly quantified, but key to predicting the impact of screening on transmission. Here, we outline a method to estimate these parameters.MethodsWe first model the duration of stage 1 through survival analysis of untreated serological suspects detected during Médecins Sans Frontières interventions in Uganda and Sudan. We then deduce the duration of stage 2 based on the stage 1 to stage 2 ratio observed during active case detection in villages within the same sites.ResultsSurvival in stage 1 appears to decay exponentially (daily rate = 0.0019; mean stage 1 duration = 526 days [95%CI 357 to 833]), possibly explaining past reports of abnormally long duration. Assuming epidemiological equilibrium, we estimate a similar duration of stage 2 (500 days [95%CI 345 to 769]), for a total of nearly three years in the absence of treatment.ConclusionRobust estimates of these basic epidemiological parameters are essential to formulating a quantitative understanding of sleeping sickness dynamics, and will facilitate the evaluation of different possible control strategies.

Polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter and multidrug resistance 1 genes: parasite risk factors that affect treatment outcomes for P. falciparum malaria after artemether-lumefantrine and artesunate-amodiaquine.

Adequate clinical and parasitologic cure by artemisinin combination therapies relies on the artemisinin component and the partner drug. Polymorphisms in the Plasmodium falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter (pfcrt) and P. falciparum multidrug resistance 1 (pfmdr1) genes are associated with decreased sensitivity to amodiaquine and lumefantrine, but effects of these polymorphisms on therapeutic responses to artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) have not been clearly defined. Individual patient data from 31 clinical trials were harmonized and pooled by using standardized methods from the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network. Data for more than 7,000 patients were analyzed to assess relationships between parasite polymorphisms in pfcrt and pfmdr1 and clinically relevant outcomes after treatment with AL or ASAQ. Presence of the pfmdr1 gene N86 (adjusted hazards ratio = 4.74, 95% confidence interval = 2.29 – 9.78, P < 0.001) and increased pfmdr1 copy number (adjusted hazards ratio = 6.52, 95% confidence interval = 2.36–17.97, P < 0.001) were significant independent risk factors for recrudescence in patients treated with AL. AL and ASAQ exerted opposing selective effects on single-nucleotide polymorphisms in pfcrt and pfmdr1. Monitoring selection and responding to emerging signs of drug resistance are critical tools for preserving efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies; determination of the prevalence of at least pfcrt K76T and pfmdr1 N86Y should now be routine.

Supervised versus unsupervised antimalarial treatment with six-dose artemether-lumefantrine:pharmacokinetic and dosage-related findings from a clinical trial in Uganda

BackgroundA six-dose antimalarial regimen of artemether-lumefantrine (A/L) may soon become one of the most widely used drug combination in Africa, despite possible constraints with adherence and poor absorption due to inadequate nutrition, and a lack of pharmacokinetic and effectiveness data.MethodsWithin a trial of supervised versus unsupervised A/L treatment in a stable Ugandan Plasmodium falciparum transmission setting, plasma lumefantrine concentrations were measured in a subset of patients on day 3 (C [lum]day3) and day 7 (C [lum]day7) post-inclusion. Predictors of lumefantrine concentrations were analysed to show how both C [lum]day7 and the weight-adjusted lumefantrine dose affect 28-day recrudescence and re-infection risks. The implications of these novel findings are discussed in terms of the emergence of lumefantrine-resistant strains in Africa.ResultsC [lum]day3 and C [lum]day7 distributions among 241 supervised and 238 unsupervised patients were positively skewed. Unsupervised treatment and decreasing weight-adjusted lumefantrine dose were negatively associated with C [lum]day3. Unsupervised treatment and decreasing age showed strong negative associations with C [lum]day7. Both models were poorly predictive (R-squared < 0.25). There were no recrudescences in either arm, but decreasing lumefantrine dose per Kg resulted in up to 13-fold higher adjusted risks of re-infection. Re-infections occurred only among patients with C [lum]day7 below 400 ng/mL (p < 0.001).ConclusionMaintaining the present six-dose regimen and ensuring high adherence and intake are essential to maximize the public health benefits of this valuable drug combination.

Effectiveness of melarsoprol and eflornithine as first-line regimens for gambiense sleeping sickness in nine Médecins Sans Frontières programmes

This paper describes the effectiveness of first-line regimens for stage 2 human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) due to Trypanosoma brucei gambiense infection in nine Médecins Sans Frontières HAT treatment programmes in Angola, Republic of Congo, Sudan and Uganda. Regimens included eflornithine and standard- and short-course melarsoprol. Outcomes for 10461 naïve stage 2 patients fitting a standardised case definition and allocated to one of the above regimens were analysed by intention-to-treat analysis. Effectiveness was quantified by the case fatality rate (CFR) during treatment, the proportion probably and definitely cured and the Kaplan-Meier probability of relapse-free survival at 12 months and 24 months post admission. The CFR was similar for the standard- and short-course melarsoprol regimens (4.9% and 4.2%, respectively). The CFR for eflornithine was 1.2%. Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities varied from 71.4-91.8% at 1 year and 56.5-87.9% at 2 years for standard-course melarsoprol, to 73.0-91.1% at 1 year for short-course melarsoprol, and 79.9-97.4% at 1 year and 68.6-93.7% at 2 years for eflornithine. With the exception of one programme, survival at 12 months was >90% for eflornithine, whilst for melarsoprol it was <90% except in two sites. Eflornithine is recommended where feasible, especially in areas with low melarsoprol effectiveness.

The natural progression of gambiense sleeping sickness: what is the evidence?

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) is widely assumed to be 100% pathogenic and fatal. However, reports to the contrary exist, and human trypano-tolerance has been postulated. Furthermore, there is uncertainty about the actual duration of both stage 1 and stage 2 infection, particularly with respect to how long a patient remains infectious. Understanding such basic parameters of HAT infection is essential for optimising control strategies based on case detection. We considered the potential existence and relevance of human trypano-tolerance, and explored the duration of infectiousness, through a review of published evidence on the natural progression of gambiense HAT in the absence of treatment, and biological considerations. Published reports indicate that most gambiense HAT cases are fatal if untreated. Self-resolving and asymptomatic chronic infections probably constitute a minority if they do indeed exist. Chronic carriage, however, deserves further study, as it could seed renewed epidemics after control programmes cease.