Francesco Forastiere

Air pollution and lung cancer incidence in 17 European cohorts: prospective analyses from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)

BACKGROUND Ambient air pollution is suspected to cause lung cancer. We aimed to assess the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and lung cancer incidence in European populations. METHODS This prospective analysis of data obtained by the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects used data from 17 cohort studies based in nine European countries. Baseline addresses were geocoded and we assessed air pollution by land-use regression models for particulate matter (PM) with diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10), less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5), and between 2·5 and 10 μm (PMcoarse), soot (PM2·5absorbance), nitrogen oxides, and two traffic indicators. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effects models for meta-analyses. FINDINGS The 312 944 cohort members contributed 4 013 131 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean 12·8 years), 2095 incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed. The meta-analyses showed a statistically significant association between risk for lung cancer and PM10 (hazard ratio [HR] 1·22 [95% CI 1·03-1·45] per 10 μg/m(3)). For PM2·5 the HR was 1·18 (0·96-1·46) per 5 μg/m(3). The same increments of PM10 and PM2·5 were associated with HRs for adenocarcinomas of the lung of 1·51 (1·10-2·08) and 1·55 (1·05-2·29), respectively. An increase in road traffic of 4000 vehicle-km per day within 100 m of the residence was associated with an HR for lung cancer of 1·09 (0·99-1·21). The results showed no association between lung cancer and nitrogen oxides concentration (HR 1·01 [0·95-1·07] per 20 μg/m(3)) or traffic intensity on the nearest street (HR 1·00 [0·97-1·04] per 5000 vehicles per day). INTERPRETATION Particulate matter air pollution contributes to lung cancer incidence in Europe. FUNDING European Communitys Seventh Framework Programme.

Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the multicentre ESCAPE project

BACKGROUND Few studies on long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality have been reported from Europe. Within the multicentre European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we aimed to investigate the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to several air pollutants. METHODS We used data from 22 European cohort studies, which created a total study population of 367,251 participants. All cohorts were general population samples, although some were restricted to one sex only. With a strictly standardised protocol, we assessed residential exposure to air pollutants as annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), less than 10 μm (PM10), and between 10 μm and 2.5 μm (PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, and annual average concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx), with land use regression models. We also investigated two traffic intensity variables-traffic intensity on the nearest road (vehicles per day) and total traffic load on all major roads within a 100 m buffer. We did cohort-specific statistical analyses using confounder models with increasing adjustment for confounder variables, and Cox proportional hazards models with a common protocol. We obtained pooled effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS The total study population consisted of 367,251 participants who contributed 5,118,039 person-years at risk (average follow-up 13.9 years), of whom 29,076 died from a natural cause during follow-up. A significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) for PM2.5 of 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.13) per 5 μg/m(3) was recorded. No heterogeneity was noted between individual cohort effect estimates (I(2) p value=0.95). HRs for PM2.5 remained significantly raised even when we included only participants exposed to pollutant concentrations lower than the European annual mean limit value of 25 μg/m(3) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12) or below 20 μg/m(3) (1.07, 1.01-1.13). INTERPRETATION Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution was associated with natural-cause mortality, even within concentration ranges well below the present European annual mean limit value. FUNDING European Communitys Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2011).

Co-morbidity contributes to predict mortality of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic role of co-morbidity in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A cohort of 270 COPD patients, mean (+/-SD) age 67+/-9 yrs, consecutively discharged from a University Hospital after an acute exacerbation was studied. Mean (+/-SD) forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) was 34+/-16% of predicted and FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) was 40.5+/-13.8%. The most common co-morbid diseases were: hypertension (28%), diabetes mellitus (14%), and ischaemic heart disease (10%). Clinical, electrocardiogram (ECG), and respiratory function data taken at the time of discharge were collected from the clinical records. The Charlsons index was used to quantify co-morbidity. Follow-up was conducted by means of telephone calls. Multivariate survival analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of death. The median survival of the cohort was 3.1 yrs. Death was predicted by the following variables: age (hazard rate (HR) 1.04; 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) 1.02-1.05), ECG signs of right ventricular hypertrophy (HR 1.76; 95% CI 1.30-2.38), chronic renal failure (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.05-3.02), ECG signs of myocardial infarction or ischaemia (HR 1.42; 95% CI 1.02-1.96), FEV1 < 590 mL (HR 1.49; 95% CI 0.97-2.27). A score based upon these variables predicted mortality at 5 yrs with a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 77%. Selected co-morbid diseases and electrocardiogram signs of right ventricular hypertrophy play a major prognostic role in advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The clinical assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease should include these important and easily measurable variables.

High temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in 12 European cities.

RATIONALE Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. METHODS For each city, time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory causes by age (all ages, 65-74 age group, and 75+ age group), and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS For respiratory admissions, there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold, respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities, respectively. In contrast, the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.

Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality: A Multicity, Population-Based, Case-Crossover Analysis

Background: Although studies have documented increased mortality during heat waves, little information is available on the subgroups most susceptible to these effects. We evaluated the effects of summertime high temperature on daily mortality among population subgroups defined by demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and episodes of hospitalization for various conditions during the preceding 2 years. Methods: We studied a total of 205,019 residents of 4 Italian cities (Bologna, Milan, Rome, and Turin) age 35 or older who died during 1997–2003. The case-crossover design was applied to evaluate the association between mean apparent temperature (same and previous day) and all-cause mortality. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of dying at 30°C (apparent temperature) relative to 20°C were estimated accounting for time, population changes, and air pollution. Results: We found an overall OR of 1.34 (CI = 1.27–1.42) at 30°C relative to 20°C. The odds ratio increased with age and was higher among women (OR = 1.45; 1.37–1.52) and among widows and widowers (1.50; 1.33–1.69). Low area-based income modestly increased the effect. Among the preexisting medical conditions investigated, effect modification was detected for previous psychiatric disorders (1.69; 1.39–2.07), depression (1.72; 1.24–2.39), heart conduction disorders (1.77; 1.38–2.27), and circulatory disorders of the brain (1.47; 1.34–1.62). Temperature-related mortality was higher among people residing in nursing homes, and a large effect was also detected for hospitalized subjects. Conclusions: Subsets of the population that are particularly vulnerable to high summer temperatures include the elderly, women, widows and widowers, those with selected medical conditions, and those staying in nursing homes and healthcare facilities.

Road traffic and adverse respiratory effects in children. SIDRIA Collaborative Group.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relation between traffic indicators in the area of residence and the occurrence of chronic respiratory disorders in children. METHODS: A population based survey was conducted in 10 areas of northern and central Italy (autumn 1994 to winter 1995) in two age groups (6-7 and 13-14 years). Information on several respiratory disorders and on traffic near residences was collected with a questionnaire given to children and to their parents. The sample analysed included 39,275 subjects (response rate 94.4%). Outcomes were: (a) early (first 2 years of life) respiratory diseases, and (b) current respiratory disorders (asthma, wheeze, cough, or phlegm in the past year). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), adjusted for several potential confounders, were estimated from logistic regression models. Main results were stratified by level of urbanisation (metropolitan areas, other centres). RESULTS: In the metropolitan areas, high frequency of lorry traffic in the street of residence was associated with significantly increased risks for many adverse respiratory outcomes. Among early respiratory diseases, the strongest associations were found for recurrent bronchitis (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.30), bronchiolitis (1.74, 1.09 to 2.77) and pneumonia (1.84, 1.27 to 2.65), although no association was detected for episodes of wheezing bronchitis. All the current respiratory disorders were positively and consistently associated with frequency of lorry traffic, particularly the most severe bronchitic and wheezing symptoms: persistent phelgm for > 2 months (1.68; 1.14 to 2.48), and severe wheeze limiting speech (1.86; 1.26 to 2.73). No or weaker associations with heavy vehicular traffic were detected in urban and rural areas and no increased risks were found in the whole sample with the reported traffic density in the zone of residence. After extensive evaluations, the potential of reporting bias seems unlikely. CONCLUSION: Exposure to exhausts from heavy vehicular traffic may have several adverse effects on respiratory health of children living in metropolitan areas, increasing the occurrence of lower respiratory tract infections early in life and of wheezing and bronchitic symptoms at school age.

Ambient air pollution and low birthweight: a European cohort study (ESCAPE)

BACKGROUND Ambient air pollution has been associated with restricted fetal growth, which is linked with adverse respiratory health in childhood. We assessed the effect of maternal exposure to low concentrations of ambient air pollution on birthweight. METHODS We pooled data from 14 population-based mother-child cohort studies in 12 European countries. Overall, the study population included 74 178 women who had singleton deliveries between Feb 11, 1994, and June 2, 2011, and for whom information about infant birthweight, gestational age, and sex was available. The primary outcome of interest was low birthweight at term (weight <2500 g at birth after 37 weeks of gestation). Mean concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5), less than 10 μm (PM10), and between 2·5 μm and 10 μm during pregnancy were estimated at maternal home addresses with temporally adjusted land-use regression models, as was PM2·5 absorbance and concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides. We also investigated traffic density on the nearest road and total traffic load. We calculated pooled effect estimates with random-effects models. FINDINGS A 5 μg/m(3) increase in concentration of PM2·5 during pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of low birthweight at term (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·18, 95% CI 1·06-1·33). An increased risk was also recorded for pregnancy concentrations lower than the present European Union annual PM2·5 limit of 25 μg/m(3) (OR for 5 μg/m(3) increase in participants exposed to concentrations of less than 20 μg/m(3) 1·41, 95% CI 1·20-1·65). PM10 (OR for 10 μg/m(3) increase 1·16, 95% CI 1·00-1·35), NO2 (OR for 10 μg/m(3) increase 1·09, 1·00-1·19), and traffic density on nearest street (OR for increase of 5000 vehicles per day 1·06, 1·01-1·11) were also associated with increased risk of low birthweight at term. The population attributable risk estimated for a reduction in PM2·5 concentration to 10 μg/m(3) during pregnancy corresponded to a decrease of 22% (95% CI 8-33%) in cases of low birthweight at term. INTERPRETATION Exposure to ambient air pollutants and traffic during pregnancy is associated with restricted fetal growth. A substantial proportion of cases of low birthweight at term could be prevented in Europe if urban air pollution was reduced. FUNDING The European Union.

Air pollution and hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in Rome, Italy

Most of the evidence regarding the association between particulate air pollution and emergency room visits or hospital admissions for respiratory conditions and asthma comes from the USA. European time-series analyses have suggested that gaseous air pollutants are important determinants of acute hospitalization for respiratory conditions, at least as important as particulate mass. The association between daily mean levels of suspended particles and gaseous pollutants (sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, ozone) was examined. The daily emergency hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in the metropolitan area of Rome during 1995-1997 were also recorded. Daily counts of hospital admissions for total respiratory conditions (43 admissions day(-1)), acute respiratory infections including pneumonia (18 day(-1)), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (13 day(-1)), and asthma (4.5 day(-1)) among residents of all ages and among children (0-14 yrs) were analysed. The generalized additive models included spline smooth functions of the day of study, mean temperature, mean humidity, influenza epidemics, and indicator variables for day of the week and holidays. Total respiratory admissions were significantly associated with same-day level of NO2 (2.5% increase per interquartile range (IQR) change, 22.3 microg x m(-3)) and CO (2.8% increase per IQR, 1.5 mg x m(-3)). No effect was found for particulate matter and SO2, whereas O3 was associated with admissions only among children (lag 1, 5.5% increase per IQR, 23.9 microg x m3). The effect of NO2 was stronger on acute respiratory infections (lag 0, 4.0% increase) and on asthma among children (lag 1, 10.7% increase). The admissions for all ages for asthma and COPD were associated only with same-day level of CO (5.5% and 4.3% increase, respectively). Multipollutant models confirmed the role of CO on all respiratory admissions, including asthma and COPD, and that of NO2 on acute respiratory infections. Among children, O3 remained a strong indicator of acute respiratory infections. Carbon monoxide and photochemical pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, ozone) appear to be determinants of acute respiratory conditions in Rome. Since carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide are good indicators of combustion products from traffic related sources, the detected effect may be due to unmeasured fine and ultrafine particles.

Ambient Air Pollution Is Associated With Increased Risk of Hospital Cardiac Readmissions of Myocardial Infarction Survivors in Five European Cities

Background— Ambient air pollution has been associated with increases in acute morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to evaluate the short-term effects of urban air pollution on cardiac hospital readmissions in survivors of myocardial infarction, a potentially susceptible subpopulation. Methods and Results— In this European multicenter cohort study, 22 006 survivors of a first myocardial infarction were recruited in Augsburg, Germany; Barcelona, Spain; Helsinki, Finland; Rome, Italy; and Stockholm, Sweden, from 1992 to 2000. Hospital readmissions were recorded in 1992 to 2001. Ambient nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, ozone, and mass of particles <10 &mgr;m (PM10) were measured. Particle number concentrations were estimated as a proxy for ultrafine particles. Short-term effects of air pollution on hospital readmissions for myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and cardiac causes (myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, dysrhythmia, or heart failure) were studied in city-specific Poisson regression analyses with subsequent pooling. During follow-up, 6655 cardiac readmissions were observed. Cardiac readmissions increased in association with same-day concentrations of PM10 (rate ratio [RR] 1.021, 95% CI 1.004 to 1.039) per 10 &mgr;g/m3) and estimated particle number concentrations (RR 1.026 [95% CI 1.005 to 1.048] per 10 000 particles/cm3). Effects of similar strength were observed for carbon monoxide (RR 1.014 [95% CI 1.001 to 1.026] per 200 &mgr;g/m3 [0.172 ppm]), nitrogen dioxide (RR 1.032 [95% CI 1.013 to 1.051] per 8 &mgr;g/m3 [4.16 ppb]), and ozone (RR 1.026 [95% CI 1.001 to 1.051] per 15 &mgr;g/m3 [7.5 ppb]). Pooled effect estimates for angina pectoris and myocardial infarction readmissions were comparable. Conclusions— The results suggest that ambient air pollution is associated with increased risk of hospital cardiac readmissions of myocardial infarction survivors in 5 European cities.

Outdoor particulate matter exposure and lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Particulate matter (PM) in outdoor air pollution was recently designated a Group I carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). This determination was based on the evidence regarding the relationship of PM2.5 and PM10 to lung cancer risk; however, the IARC evaluation did not include a quantitative summary of the evidence. OBJECTIVE Our goal was to provide a systematic review and quantitative summary of the evidence regarding the relationship between PM and lung cancer. METHODS We conducted meta-analyses of studies examining the relationship of exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 with lung cancer incidence and mortality. In total, 18 studies met our inclusion criteria and provided the information necessary to estimate the change in lung cancer risk per 10-μg/m3 increase in exposure to PM. We used random-effects analyses to allow between-study variability to contribute to meta-estimates. RESULTS The meta-relative risk for lung cancer associated with PM2.5 was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.14). The meta-relative risk of lung cancer associated with PM10 was similar, but less precise: 1.08 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.17). Estimates were robust to restriction to studies that considered potential confounders, as well as subanalyses by exposure assessment method. Analyses by smoking status showed that lung cancer risk associated with PM2.5 was greatest for former smokers [1.44 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.22)], followed by never-smokers [1.18 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.39)], and then current smokers [1.06 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.15)]. In addition, meta-estimates for adenocarcinoma associated with PM2.5 and PM10 were 1.40 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.83) and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.63), respectively. CONCLUSION The results of these analyses, and the decision of the IARC Working Group to classify PM and outdoor air pollution as carcinogenic (Group 1), further justify efforts to reduce exposures to air pollutants that can arise from many sources.