Francesco Paolucci

Multi-criteria decision analysis to prioritize health interventions: capitalizing on first experiences

This paper capitalizes on a first set of experiences on the application of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in seven low- and middle-income settings. It thereby reacts to a recent paper by Peacock et al., highlighting the potential of MCDA to guide policy makers in highly specific decision-making contexts. We argue that MCDA also has a broader application in setting priorities in health, i.e. to indicate general perceptions on priorities without defining the allocation of resources in a precise fashion. This use of MCDA can have far-reaching and constructive influences on policy formulation.

Prevalence and Costs of Multimorbidity by Deprivation Levels in the Basque Country: A Population Based Study Using Health Administrative Databases

Background Multimorbidity is a major challenge for healthcare systems. However, currently, its magnitude and impact in healthcare expenditures is still mostly unknown. Objective To present an overview of the prevalence and costs of multimorbidity by socioeconomic levels in the whole Basque population. Methods We develop a cross-sectional analysis that includes all the inhabitants of the Basque Country (N = 2,262,698). We utilize data from primary health care electronic medical records, hospital admissions, and outpatient care databases, corresponding to a 4 year period. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more chronic diseases out of a list of 52 of the most important and common chronic conditions given in the literature. We also use socioeconomic and demographic variables such as age, sex, individual healthcare cost, and deprivation level. Predicted adjusted costs were obtained by log-gamma regression models. Results Multimorbidity of chronic diseases was found among 23.61% of the total Basque population and among 66.13% of those older than 65 years. Multimorbid patients account for 63.55% of total healthcare expenditures. Prevalence of multimorbidity is higher in the most deprived areas for all age and sex groups. The annual cost of healthcare per patient generated for any chronic disease depends on the number of coexisting comorbidities, and varies from 637 € for the first pathology in average to 1,657 € for the ninth one. Conclusion Multimorbidity is very common for the Basque population and its prevalence rises in age, and unfavourable socioeconomic environment. The costs of care for chronic patients with several conditions cannot be described as the sum of their individual pathologies in average. They usually increase dramatically according to the number of comorbidities. Given the ageing population, multimorbidity and its consequences should be taken into account in healthcare policy, the organization of care and medical research.

Supplementary health insurance as a tool for risk-selection in mandatory basic health insurance markets

As the share of supplementary health insurance (SI) in health care finance is likely to grow, SI may become an increasingly attractive tool for risk-selection in basic health insurance (BI). In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework to assess the probability that insurers will use SI for favourable risk-selection in BI. We apply our framework to five countries in which risk-selection via SI is feasible: Belgium, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. For each country, we review the available evidence of SI being used as selection device. We find that the probability that SI is and will be used for risk-selection substantially varies across countries. Finally, we discuss several strategies for policy makers to reduce the chance that SI will be used for risk-selection in BI markets.

Not all hours are equal: Could time be a social determinant of health?

Time can be thought of as a resource that people need for good health. Healthy behaviour, accessing health services, working, resting and caring all require time. Like other resources, time is socially shaped, but its relevance to health and health inequality is yet to be established. Drawing from sociology and political economy, we set out the theoretical basis for two measures of time relevant to contemporary, market-based societies. We measure amount of time spent on care and work (paid and unpaid) and the intensity of time, which refers to rushing, effort and speed. Using data from wave 9 (N = 9177) of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia Survey we found that time poverty (> 80 h per week on care and work) and often or always rushing are barriers to physical activity and rushing is associated with poorer self-rated and mental health. Exploring their social patterning, we find that time-poor people have higher incomes and more time control. In contrast, rushing is linked to being a woman, lone parenthood, disability, lack of control and work-family conflicts. We supply a methodology to support quantitative investigations of time, and our findings underline times dimensionality, social distribution and potential to influence health.

Risk equalisation and voluntary health insurance markets: the case of Australia

In April 2007, Australia introduced a risk equalisation (RE) scheme (de facto a claims equalisation scheme), which replaced an extant reinsurance scheme that had operated since 1976. This scheme is one of a number of policy measures that the Australian Government has instituted to support the voluntary private health insurance (PHI) market which is subject to mandatory community rating and the attendant problem of selection. The latter has been a persistent concern in the Australian PHI market since the introduction of Australias universal, compulsory national health insurance scheme Medicare. This paper presents a brief overview of Australias health care financing arrangements and, in particular, focuses on the history, structure and functioning of the RE scheme. It provides an exposition of the operation of the scheme and empirical evidence of the schemes effects in its first full year of operation, 2007-08. The paper makes three contributions: first, it provides the only detailed overview of the functioning of the Australian RE scheme published to date; second, it presents the first empirical measures of the schemes operation at the level of the 38 individual PHI funds; and third, it describes the systematic differences in the schemes operation with respect to large and small funds. Thus, this paper provides a number of insights into the operation and outcomes of the Australian RE scheme following its first year of operation.

Risk equalisation in voluntary health insurance markets: A three country comparison

The paper summarises the conclusions for health policy from the experience of three countries who have introduced risk equalisation subsidies, in their voluntary health insurance (VHI) markets. The countries chosen are Australia, Ireland and South Africa. All of these countries have developed VHI markets and have progressed towards introducing risk equalisation. The objective of such subsidies is primarily to make VHI affordable while encouraging efficiency in health care production. The paper presents a conceptual framework to understand and compare risk equalisation subsidies in VHI markets. The paper outlines how such subsidies are organised in each of the countries and identifies problems that arise in their implementation. We conclude that the objectives of risk equalisation, in VHI markets are no different to those in countries with mandatory insurance systems. We find that the introduction of risk equalisation subsidies is complex and that countries seeking to introduce risk equalisation in VHI markets must carefully consider how such subsidies advance their overall health policy goals. Furthermore, we conclude that such subsidies must be structured correctly as otherwise incentives exist for risk selection which may threaten affordability and efficiency. Our overall conclusion is that also in voluntary health insurance markets risk equalisation has a role in meeting the related public policy objectives of risk solidarity and affordability, and without it these objectives are severely undermined.

The global financial crisis and Australian general practice

OBJECTIVE To explore the potential effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the market for general practitioner (GP) services in Australia. DESIGN We estimate the impact of changes in unemployment rates on demand for GP services and the impact of lost asset values on GP retirement plans and work patterns. Combining these supply and demand effects, we estimate the potential effect of the GFC on the market for GP services under various scenarios. RESULTS If deferral of retirement increases GP availability by 2%, and historic trends to reduce GP working hours are halved, at the current level of ~5.2% unemployment average fees would decline by

Equity and efficiency preferences of health policy makers in China--a stated preference analysis.

0.23 per GP consultation and volumes of GP services would rise by 2.53% with almost no change in average GP gross earnings over what would otherwise have occurred. With 8.5% unemployment, as initially predicted by Treasury, GP fees would increase by

Recovery and Borderline Personality Disorder: A Description of the Innovative Open Borders Program

0.91 and GP income by nearly 3%. CONCLUSIONS The GFC is likely to increase activity in the GP market and potentially to reduce fee levels relative to the pre-GFC trends. Net effects on average GP incomes are likely to be small at current unemployment levels.

Mandatory aged care insurance: a case for Australia

BACKGROUND Macroeconomic growth in China enables significant progress in health care and public health. It faces difficult choices regarding access, quality and affordability, while dealing with the increasing burden of chronic diseases. Policymakers are pressured to make complex decisions while implementing health strategies. This study shows how this process could be structured and reports the specific equity and efficiency preferences among Chinese policymakers. METHODS In total, 78 regional, provincial and national level policymakers with considerable experience participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative importance of six policy attributes describing equity and efficiency. Results from a conditional logistic model are presented for the six criteria, measuring the associated weights. Observed and unobserved heterogeneities were incorporated and tested in the model. Findings are used to give an example of ranking health interventions in relation to the present disease burden in China. RESULTS In general, respondents showed strong preference for efficiency criteria i.e. total beneficiaries and cost-effectiveness as the most important attributes in decision making over equity criteria. Hence, priority interventions would be those conditions that are most prevalent in the country and cost least per health gain. CONCLUSION Although efficiency criteria override equity ones, major health threats in China would be targeted. Multicriteria decision analysis makes explicit important trade-offs between efficiency and equity, leading to explicit, transparent and rational policy making.