Francesco Saraceno

Europe: How Deep Is a Crisis? Policy Responses and Structural Factors Behind Diverging Performances

The effects of the current crisis on the level of output, and consequently on unemployment and poverty, are likely to be deep and long lasting; they should not be underestimated, especially now that some timid signs of recovery are appearing. The crisis was triggered by the US financial sector, but its roots are real, and can be traced to the deepening income inequality of the last three decades, which led to a chronic deficiency of aggregate demand. In the Unites States, the center of the crisis, the policy reaction has been bold, and as a consequence the effects of the crisis are less important than in the eurozone, where only France has a comparable performance. The policy inertia of the eurozone countries, in fact, is more structural, and is related to the institutions for the economic governance of Europe. The statute of the ECB and the Stability and Growth Pact, that reflect a doctrine opposed to discretionary macroeconomic policies, constrain eurozone governments and its monetary policy. The relatively better performance of France can in fact be explained with these lenses: on one side it has a well developed system of automatic stabilizers, and on the other it suffered less than other OECD countries the deepening of income inequality.

A computational theory of the firm

This paper proposes using computational learning theory (CLT) as a framework for analyzing the information processing behavior of firms; we argue that firms can be viewed as learning algorithms. The costs and benefits of processing information are linked to the structure of the firm and its relationship with the environment. We model the firm as a type of artificial neural network (ANN). By a simulation experiment, we show which types of networks maximize the net return to computation given different environments.

ON THE LONG‐TERM EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: THE CASE FOR A GOLDEN RULE

This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on GDP and, more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model for the British economy that takes into account long-run factors such as public debt accumulation and policy interactions. We find that in such a long-run framework, public investment has a significant and permanently positive effect on GDP; this result runs counter to the most recent literature on the topic using SVAR, which was limited to a short-run specification. We further find, by comparing different subsamples, that the introduction of the golden rule in 1997 strengthened the positive effect of public investment.

Organization, Learning and Cooperation

We model the organization of the firm as a type of artificial neural network in a duopoly framework. The firm plays a repeated Prisoners Dilemma type game, but also must learn to map environmental signals to demand parameters. We study the prospects for cooperation given the need for the firm to learn the environment and its rivals output. We show how a firms profit and cooperation rates are affected by its size, its rivals size and willingness to cooperate and environmental complexity.

Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pact

This paper describes recent trends on the efficiency of stabilisers in the European Union. Using both macro evidence on the cyclical sensitivity of budget deficit to economic activity, and micro evidence on the tax and expenditure profiles, we conclude, in agreement with the recent literature, that the importance of automatic stabilisation has decreased. After remarking that this trend is contradictory with the current economic institutions of Europe relying exclusively on automatic stabilisation for the conduct of fiscal policy, we argue that increasing flexibility, one alternative way to reduce cyclical fluctuations, does not seem a viable path. The paper concludes defending the appropriateness of discretionary fiscal policy. We argue by means of a simple model that the theoretical arguments against its use are not conclusive, and we describe a recent stream of literature, based on structural VAR models, that concludes rather robustly for the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policy in the short and long run.

Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a difference in the UK

This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on growth, and more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model of the British economy that takes into account long run factors such as public debt accumulation. We find that in such a long run framework, public investment has a significant and permanently positive effect on GDP growth; this result runs counter to the most recent literature on the topic that was limited to a short run specification. We further find, by comparing different subsamples, that the introduction of the golden rule in 1997 strengthened the positive effect of public investment.

Assessing the Link between Price and Financial Stability

This paper aims at investigating first the (possibly time-varying) empirical relationship between the level and conditional variances of price and financial stability, and second, the effects of macro and policy variables on this relationship in the United States and the Eurozone. Three empirical methods are used to examine the relevance of A.J Schwartz’s conventional wisdom that price stability would yield financial stability. Using simple correlations, VAR and Dynamic Conditional Correlations, we reject the hypothesis that price stability is positively correlated to financial stability. We then discuss the empirical appropriateness of the leaning against the wind monetary policy approach.

Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data

We estimate a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the French economy. The econometric method originates in Blanchard and Perotti [Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002] but owes also extensively to the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) that investigates the interactions between government surplus, debt accumulation and price dynamics. We have the objective, on the one hand, of assessing the effects of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on the economy; and, on the other, of studying the strategic interactions between fiscal and monetary authorities. As a consequence, the theoretical restrictions to identify our model are derived from a FTPL framework. Our estimations reveal so-called Keynesian features of fiscal and monetary shocks; meanwhile, they are consistent with the prediction of the FTPL as regards price dynamics. Although the first part of our findings agree with most of the recent literature on the subject, the non-rejection of the FTPL is an originality.

Fiscal policy is back in France and the United Kingdom

In this paper, we analyze the resurgence of discretionary fiscal policy in the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) framework. Despite its reliance on the new consensus macroeconomic (NCM) framework, the FTPL concludes that fiscal policy may lead monetary policy without hampering macroeconomic stability. We show that an empirical model deriving from this theory gives very interesting results: in France and the United Kingdom, fiscal policy has positive long-run effects. This is at odds with the orthodox nature of FTPL promoters who usually advocate fiscal rules and sanctions. We interpret our results as being consistent with Post Keynesian economic thinking. We conclude that the move of some economists from the NCM school of thought in favor of discretionary fiscal policy has promoted the visibility of Post Keynesian ideas on this topic.

The Crisis, Automatic Stabilisation, and the Stability Pact

This paper describes recent trends on the effectiveness of stabilisers in the European Union. Using both macro evidence on the cyclical sensitivity of budget deficit to economic activity and micro evidence on the tax and expenditure profiles, we conclude, in agreement with the recent literature, that the importance of automatic stabilisation has decreased. After remarking that this trend is contradictory with the current economic institutions of Europe, which rely exclusively on automatic stabilisation for the conduct of fiscal policy, we argue that increasing flexibility, one alternative way to reduce cyclical fluctuations, does not seem a viable path. The paper concludes defending the appropriateness of discretionary fiscal policy. We argue by means of a simple model that the theoretical arguments against its use are not conclusive, and we describe a recent stream of literature, based on structural VAR models, that concludes rather robustly for the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policy in the short and long run.