Francis Kemegue

Exploring exchange rate based policy coordination in SADC

Purpose This paper explores the possibilities for policy coordination in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as well as real effective exchange rate (REER) stability as a prerequisite towards sensible monetary integration. The underlying hypothesis goes with the assertion that countries meeting optimum currency area conditions face more stable exchange rates. Design/methodology/approach The quantitative analysis encompasses 12 SADC member states over the period 1995-2012. Correlation matrixes, dynamic pooled mean group (PMG) and mean group (MG) estimators and real effective exchange rate (REER) and real exchange rate (RER) equilibrium and misalignment analysis are carried out to arrive at the conclusions. Findings The study finds that the structural variables used in the PMG model show that there are common fiscal and monetary policy variables that determine REER/RER in the region. However, the exchange rate equilibrium misalignment analysis reveals that SADC economies are characterised by persistent overvaluation at least in the short term. This calls for further sustained policy coordination in the region. Practical implications The findings in this paper have important policy implications for economic stability and for the attempt of policy coordination in SADC region for the proposed monetary integration to proceed. Originality/value This study is the first attempt that relates the exchange rate as a policy coordination instrument among SADC economies.

Harnessing Remittances through Formal Channels for Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper investigates how sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries could harness remittances through formal channels for development using annual data for 35 countries from 1980 to 2008. We control for country heterogeneity, endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence of the error term using the least square dummy variable (LSDV) estimator with Driscoll and Kraay (1998) corrected standard errors, the Kiviet (1995) bias-corrected LSDV estimator and feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) by Parks (1967) and Kmenta (1986). We find that financial deepening in the home country is critical to the use of formal channels and the ability of sub-Saharan African countries to harness remittances for development. Besides remitting home for altruistic reasons, sub-Saharan African migrants would also respond to investment opportunities in their home countries, contingent on a stable exchange rate. Sub-Saharan African migrants also remit more money home when their incomes increase in the host country.