Franck Courchamp

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.

Inverse density dependence and the Allee effect

The Allee effect describes a scenario in which populations at low numbers are affected by a positive relationship between population growth rate and density, which increases their likelihood of extinction. The importance of this dynamic process in ecology has been under-appreciated and recent evidence now suggests that it might have an impact on the population dynamics of many plant and animal species. Studies of the causal mechanisms generating Allee effects in small populations could provide a key to understanding their dynamics.

Impacts of biological invasions: what's what and the way forward

Study of the impacts of biological invasions, a pervasive component of global change, has generated remarkable understanding of the mechanisms and consequences of the spread of introduced populations. The growing field of invasion science, poised at a crossroads where ecology, social sciences, resource management, and public perception meet, is increasingly exposed to critical scrutiny from several perspectives. Although the rate of biological invasions, elucidation of their consequences, and knowledge about mitigation are growing rapidly, the very need for invasion science is disputed. Here, we highlight recent progress in understanding invasion impacts and management, and discuss the challenges that the discipline faces in its science and interactions with society.

Mammal invaders on islands: impact, control and control impact

The invasion of ecosystems by exotic species is currently viewed as one of the most important sources of biodiversity loss. The largest part of this loss occurs on islands, where indigenous species have often evolved in the absence of strong competition, herbivory, parasitism or predation. As a result, introduced species thrive in those optimal insular ecosystems affecting their plant food, competitors or animal prey. As islands are characterised by a high rate of endemism, the impacted populations often correspond to local subspecies or even unique species. One of the most important taxa concerning biological invasions on islands is mammals. A small number of mammal species is responsible for most of the damage to invaded insular ecosystems: rats, cats, goats, rabbits, pigs and a few others. The effect of alien invasive species may be simple or very complex, especially since a large array of invasive species, mammals and others, can be present simultaneously and interact among themselves as well as with the indigenous species. In most cases, introduced species generally have a strong impact and they often are responsible for the impoverishment of the local flora and fauna. The best response to these effects is almost always to control the alien population, either by regularly reducing their numbers, or better still, by eradicating the population as a whole from the island. Several types of methods are currently used: physical (trapping, shooting), chemical (poisoning) and biological (e.g. directed use of diseases). Each has its own set of advantages and disadvantages, depending on the mammal species targeted. The best strategy is almost always to combine several methods. Whatever the strategy used, its long‐term success is critically dependent on solid support from several different areas, including financial support, staff commitment, and public support, to name only a few. In many cases, the elimination of the alien invasive species is followed by a rapid and often spectacular recovery of the impacted local populations. However, in other cases, the removal of the alien is not sufficient for the damaged ecosystem to revert to its former state, and complementary actions, such as species re‐introduction, are required. A third situation may be widespread: the sudden removal of the alien species may generate a further disequilibrium, resulting in further or greater damage to the ecosystem. Given the numerous and complex population interactions among island species, it is difficult to predict the outcome of the removal of key species, such as a top predator. This justifies careful pre‐control study and preparation prior to initiating the eradication of an alien species, in order to avoid an ecological catastrophe. In addition, long‐term monitoring of the post‐eradication ecosystem is crucial to assess success and prevent reinvasion.

Golden eagles, feral pigs, and insular carnivores: How exotic species turn native predators into prey

Island ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to exotic species. Here we show how an introduced prey has led to the wholesale restructuring of an island food web, including the near extinction of an endemic carnivore. Introduced pigs, by providing abundant food, enabled golden eagles to colonize the California Channel Islands. Eagles preyed heavily on the island fox, whose resulting decline toward extinction released populations of the competitively inferior island skunk. The presence of exotic pigs led to major ecosystem shifts by indirectly causing predation to replace competition as the dominant force shaping these island communities.

Rarity Value and Species Extinction: The Anthropogenic Allee Effect

Standard economic theory predicts that exploitation alone is unlikely to result in species extinction because of the escalating costs of finding the last individuals of a declining species. We argue that the human predisposition to place exaggerated value on rarity fuels disproportionate exploitation of rare species, rendering them even rarer and thus more desirable, ultimately leading them into an extinction vortex. Here we present a simple mathematical model and various empirical examples to show how the value attributed to rarity in some human activities could precipitate the extinction of rare species—a concept that we term the anthropogenic Allee effect. The alarming finding that human perception of rarity can precipitate species extinction has serious implications for the conservation of species that are rare or that may become so, be they charismatic and emblematic or simply likely to become fashionable for certain activities.

Dangerously few liaisons: a review of mate-finding Allee effects

In this paper, we review mate-finding Allee effects from ecological and evolutionary points of view. We define ‘mate-finding’ as mate searching in mobile animals, and also as the meeting of gametes for sessile animals and plants (pollination). We consider related issues such as mate quality and choice, sperm limitation and physiological stimulation of reproduction by conspecifics, as well as discussing the role of demographic stochasticity in generating mate-finding Allee effects. We consider the role of component Allee effects due to mate-finding in generating demographic Allee effects (at the population level). Compelling evidence for demographic Allee effects due to mate-finding (as well as via other mechanisms) is still limited, due to difficulties in censusing rare populations or a failure to identify underlying mechanisms, but also because of fitness trade-offs, population spatial structure and metapopulation dynamics, and because the strength of component Allee effects may vary in time and space. Mate-finding Allee effects act on individual fitness and are thus susceptible to change via natural selection. We believe it is useful to distinguish two routes by which evolution can act to mitigate mate-finding Allee effects. The first is evolution of characteristics such as calls, pheromones, hermaphroditism, etc. which make mate-finding more efficient at low density, thus eliminating the Allee effect. Such adaptations are very abundant in the natural world, and may have arisen to avoid Allee effects, although other hypotheses are also possible. The second route is to avoid low density via adaptations such as permanent or periodic aggregation. In this case, the Allee effect is still present, but its effects are avoided. These two strategies may have different consequences in a world where many populations are being artificially reduced to low density: in the first case, population growth rate can be maintained, while in the second case, the mechanism to avoid Allee effects has been destroyed. It is therefore in these latter populations that we predict the greatest evidence for mate-finding Allee effects and associated demographic consequences. This idea is supported by the existing empirical evidence for demographic Allee effects. Given a strong effect that mate-finding appears to have on individual fitness, we support the continuing quest to find connections between component mate-finding Allee effects (individual reproductive fitness) and the demographic consequences. There are many reasons why such studies are difficult, but it is important, particularly given the increasing number of populations and species of conservation concern, that the ecological community understands more about how widespread demographic Allee effects really are, and why.

Will climate change promote future invasions

Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the worlds worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.

Crucial importance of pack size in the African wild dog Lycaon pictus

Although the massive organized slaughter of African wild dogs, Lycaon pictus, largely ended several decades ago, this endangered canid continues to decline and faces extinction. Several lines of evidence suggest that this arises from obligate cooperative breeding, which makes Lycaon more sensitive to anthropogenic mortality. A number of behaviours in this species are characterized by a reliance on helpers. These include cooperative hunting, defence from kleptoparasitism, pup feeding and baby-sitting. As a result, there are strong, positive relationships between pack size and the production and survival of pups, and pairs of wild dogs are often unsuccessful at raising offspring without the assistance of helpers. Consequently, a pack in which membership drops below a critical size may be caught in a positive feedback loop: poor reproduction and low survival further reduce pack size, culminating in failure of the whole pack. Here, we review the literature to reveal the importance of pack size in the African wild dog. Most importantly, we argue that there is a critical minimum threshold, below which packs face an increasing probability of extinction - an Allee effect with consequences for the conservation of this species, and of other obligate cooperators.

Legal Trade of Africa's Rhino Horns

A trade ban limits supply, therefore raising prices and driving black market poaching. Africas western black rhino Diceros bicornis longipes was declared extinct by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in 2011. Africas other rhino populations are also under siege. South Africa is home to more than 90% of the worlds 20,000 white rhino Ceratotherium simum, and 40% (more than 80% together with its neighbor Namibia), of the 5000 remaining black rhino (1–3). Yet, poaching in South Africa has, on average, more than doubled each year over the past 5 years (see the chart). If poaching continues to accelerate, Africas remaining rhino populations may become extinct in the wild within 20 years (4, 5).