Franco Berrino

Cancer survival in Europe 1999–2007 by country and age: results of EUROCARE-5—a population-based study

BACKGROUND Cancer survival is a key measure of the effectiveness of health-care systems. EUROCARE-the largest cooperative study of population-based cancer survival in Europe-has shown persistent differences between countries for cancer survival, although in general, cancer survival is improving. Major changes in cancer diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation occurred in the early 2000s. EUROCARE-5 assesses their effect on cancer survival in 29 European countries. METHODS In this retrospective observational study, we analysed data from 107 cancer registries for more than 10 million patients with cancer diagnosed up to 2007 and followed up to 2008. Uniform quality control procedures were applied to all datasets. For patients diagnosed 2000-07, we calculated 5-year relative survival for 46 cancers weighted by age and country. We also calculated country-specific and age-specific survival for ten common cancers, together with survival differences between time periods (for 1999-2001, 2002-04, and 2005-07). FINDINGS 5-year relative survival generally increased steadily over time for all European regions. The largest increases from 1999-2001 to 2005-07 were for prostate cancer (73.4% [95% CI 72.9-73.9] vs 81.7% [81.3-82.1]), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (53.8% [53.3-54.4] vs 60.4% [60.0-60.9]), and rectal cancer (52.1% [51.6-52.6] vs 57.6% [57.1-58.1]). Survival in eastern Europe was generally low and below the European mean, particularly for cancers with good or intermediate prognosis. Survival was highest for northern, central, and southern Europe. Survival in the UK and Ireland was intermediate for rectal cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, skin melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, but low for kidney, stomach, ovarian, colon, and lung cancers. Survival for lung cancer in the UK and Ireland was much lower than for other regions for all periods, although results for lung cancer in some regions (central and eastern Europe) might be affected by overestimation. Survival usually decreased with age, although to different degrees depending on region and cancer type. INTERPRETATION The major advances in cancer management that occurred up to 2007 seem to have resulted in improved survival in Europe. Likely explanations of differences in survival between countries include: differences in stage at diagnosis and accessibility to good care, different diagnostic intensity and screening approaches, and differences in cancer biology. Variations in socioeconomic, lifestyle, and general health between populations might also have a role. Further studies are needed to fully interpret these findings and how to remedy disparities. FUNDING Italian Ministry of Health, European Commission, Compagnia di San Paolo Foundation, Cariplo Foundation.

Survival for eight major cancers and all cancers combined for European adults diagnosed in 1995–99: results of the EUROCARE-4 study

BACKGROUND EUROCARE is the largest population-based cooperative study on survival of patients with cancer. The EUROCARE project aims to regularly monitor, analyse, and explain survival trends and between-country differences in survival. This report (EUROCARE-4) presents survival data for eight selected cancer sites and for all cancers combined, diagnosed in adult (aged >/=15 years) Europeans in 1995-99 and followed up until the end of 2003. METHODS We analysed data from 83 cancer registries in 23 European countries on 2 699 086 adult cancer cases that were diagnosed in 1995-99 and followed up to December, 2003. We calculated country-specific and mean-weighted age-adjusted 5-year relative survival for eight major cancers. Additionally, case-mix-adjusted 5-year survival for all cancers combined was calculated by countries ranked by total national expenditure on health (TNEH). Changes to survival were analysed relative to cases diagnosed in 1990-94. FINDINGS Mean age-adjusted 5-year relative survival for colorectal (53.8% [95% CI 53.3-54.1]), lung (12.3% [12.1-12.5]), breast (78.9% [78.6-79.2]), prostate (75.7% [75.2-76.2]), and ovarian (36.3% [35.7-37.0]) cancer was highest in Nordic countries (except Denmark) and central Europe, intermediate in southern Europe, lower in the UK and Ireland, and worst in eastern Europe. Survival for melanoma (81.6% [81.0-82.3]), cancer of the testis (94.2% [93.4-95.0]), and Hodgkins disease (80.0% [79.0-81.0]) varied little with geography. All-cancer survival correlated with TNEH for most countries. Denmark and UK had lower all-cancer survival than countries with similar TNEH; Finland had high all-cancer survival, but moderate TNEH. Survival increased and intercountry survival differences narrowed between the data for 1990-94 and 1995-99 for, notably, Hodgkins disease (range 66.1-82.9 [IQR 72.2-78.6] vs 74.0-83.9 [78.6-81.9]), colorectal (29.4-56.7 [45.8-54.1] vs 38.8-59.7 [50.7-57.5]), and breast (61.7-82.7 [72.3-78.3] vs 69.3-87.6 [76.6-82.7]) sites. INTERPRETATION Increases in survival and decreases in geographic differences over time, which are mainly due to improvements in health-care services in countries with poor survival, might indicate better cancer care. Wealthy countries with high TNEH generally had good cancer outcomes, but those with conspicuously worse outcomes than those with similar TNEH might not be allocating health resources efficiently.

Geographical patterns and time trends of cancer incidence and survival among children and adolescents in Europe since the 1970s (the ACCIS project): an epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Cancer is rare before age 20 years. We aimed to use the European database of childhood and adolescent cancer cases, within the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System project, to estimate patterns and trends of incidence and survival within Europe. METHODS Comparable, high-quality data from 63 European population-based cancer registries consisted of 113000 tumours in children and 18243 in adolescents diagnosed in 1970-99. Incidence rates and survival were compared by region (east vs west), period, and malignant disease. FINDINGS In the 1990s, age-standardised incidence rates were 140 per million for children (0-14 years) and 157 per million for ages 0-19 years. Over the three decades, overall incidence increased by 1.0% per year (p<0.0001) in children (increases for most tumour types), and by 1.5% (p<0.0001) in adolescents (15-19 years; notable increases were recorded for carcinomas, lymphomas, and germ-cell tumours). Overall 5-year survival for children in the 1990s was 64% in the east and 75% in the west, with differences between regions for virtually all tumour groups; 5-year survival was much the same in adolescents. Survival has improved dramatically since the 1970s in children and adolescents, more so in the west than in the east. INTERPRETATION Our results are clear evidence of an increase of cancer incidence in childhood and adolescence during the past decades, and of an acceleration of this trend. Geographical and temporal patterns suggest areas for further study into causes of these neoplasms, as well as providing an indicator of progress of public-health policy in Europe.

Body size and breast cancer risk: Findings from the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC)

The evidence for anthropometric factors influencing breast cancer risk is accumulating, but uncertainties remain concerning the role of fat distribution and potential effect modifiers. We used data from 73,542 premenopausal and 103,344 postmenopausal women from 9 European countries, taking part in the EPIC study. RRs from Cox regression models were calculated, using measured height, weight, BMI and waist and hip circumferences; categorized by cohort‐wide quintiles; and expressed as continuous variables, adjusted for study center, age and other risk factors. During 4.7 years of follow‐up, 1,879 incident invasive breast cancers were identified. In postmenopausal women, current HRT modified the body size–breast cancer association. Among nonusers, weight, BMI and hip circumference were positively associated with breast cancer risk (all ptrend ≤ 0.002); obese women (BMI > 30) had a 31% excess risk compared to women with BMI < 25. Among HRT users, body measures were inversely but nonsignificantly associated with breast cancer. Excess breast cancer risk with HRT was particularly evident among lean women. Pooled RRs per height increment of 5 cm were 1.05 (95% CI 1.00–1.16) in premenopausal and 1.10 (95% CI 1.05–1.16) in postmenopausal women. Among premenopausal women, hip circumference was the only other measure significantly related to breast cancer (ptrend = 0.03), after accounting for BMI. In postmenopausal women not taking exogenous hormones, general obesity is a significant predictor of breast cancer, while abdominal fat assessed as waist–hip ratio or waist circumference was not related to excess risk when adjusted for BMI. Among premenopausal women, weight and BMI showed nonsignificant inverse associations with breast cancer.

Genome-wide association study identifies variants in the ABO locus associated with susceptibility to pancreatic cancer

We conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study of pancreatic cancer, a cancer with one of the lowest survival rates worldwide. We genotyped 558,542 SNPs in 1,896 individuals with pancreatic cancer and 1,939 controls drawn from 12 prospective cohorts plus one hospital-based case-control study. We conducted a combined analysis of these groups plus an additional 2,457 affected individuals and 2,654 controls from eight case-control studies, adjusting for study, sex, ancestry and five principal components. We identified an association between a locus on 9q34 and pancreatic cancer marked by the SNP rs505922 (combined P = 5.37 × 10−8; multiplicative per-allele odds ratio 1.20; 95% confidence interval 1.12–1.28). This SNP maps to the first intron of the ABO blood group gene. Our results are consistent with earlier epidemiologic evidence suggesting that people with blood group O may have a lower risk of pancreatic cancer than those with groups A or B.

Incidence of hematologic malignancies in Europe by morphologic subtype: results of the HAEMACARE project

Changing definitions and classifications of hematologic malignancies (HMs) complicate incidence comparisons. HAEMACARE classified HMs into groupings consistent with the latest World Health Organization classification and useful for epidemiologic and public health purposes. We present crude, age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates for European HMs according to these groupings, estimated from 66,371 lymphoid malignancies (LMs) and 21,796 myeloid malignancies (MMs) registered in 2000-2002 by 44 European cancer registries, grouped into 5 regions. Age-standardized incidence rates were 24.5 (per 100,000) for LMs and 7.55 for MMs. The commonest LMs were plasma cell neoplasms (4.62), small B-cell lymphocytic lymphoma/chronic lymphatic leukemia (3.79), diffuse B-cell lymphoma (3.13), and Hodgkin lymphoma (2.41). The commonest MMs were acute myeloid leukemia (2.96), other myeloproliferative neoplasms (1.76), and myelodysplastic syndrome (1.24). Unknown morphology LMs were commonest in Northern Europe (7.53); unknown morphology MMs were commonest in Southern Europe (0.73). Overall incidence was lowest in Eastern Europe and lower in women than in men. For most LMs, incidence was highest in Southern Europe; for MMs incidence was highest in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Differences in diagnostic and registration criteria are an important cause of incidence variation; however, different distribution of HM risk factors also contributes. The quality of population-based HM data needs further improvement.

Unequal risks for breast cancer associated with different hormone replacement therapies: results from the E3N cohort study

Large numbers of hormone replacement therapies (HRTs) are available for the treatment of menopausal symptoms. It is still unclear whether some are more deleterious than others regarding breast cancer risk. The goal of this study was to assess and compare the association between different HRTs and breast cancer risk, using data from the French E3N cohort study. Invasive breast cancer cases were identified through biennial self-administered questionnaires completed from 1990 to 2002. During follow-up (mean duration 8.1 postmenopausal years), 2,354 cases of invasive breast cancer occurred among 80,377 postmenopausal women. Compared with HRT never-use, use of estrogen alone was associated with a significant 1.29-fold increased risk (95% confidence interval 1.02–1.65). The association of estrogen–progestagen combinations with breast cancer risk varied significantly according to the type of progestagen: the relative risk was 1.00 (0.83–1.22) for estrogen–progesterone, 1.16 (0.94–1.43) for estrogen–dydrogesterone, and 1.69 (1.50–1.91) for estrogen combined with other progestagens. This latter category involves progestins with different physiologic activities (androgenic, nonandrogenic, antiandrogenic), but their associations with breast cancer risk did not differ significantly from one another. This study found no evidence of an association with risk according to the route of estrogen administration (oral or transdermal/percutaneous). These findings suggest that the choice of the progestagen component in combined HRT is of importance regarding breast cancer risk; it could be preferable to use progesterone or dydrogesterone.

Breast cancer risk in relation to different types of hormone replacement therapy in the E3N-EPIC cohort.

Most epidemiological studies have shown an increase in breast cancer risk related to hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use. A recent large cohort study showed effects of similar magnitude for different types of progestogens and for different routes of administration of estrogens evaluated. Further investigation of these issues is of importance. We assessed the risk of breast cancer associated with HRT use in 54,548 postmenopausal women who had never taken any HRT 1 year before entering the E3N‐EPIC cohort study (mean age at inclusion: 52.8 years); 948 primary invasive breast cancers were diagnosed during follow‐up (mean duration: 5.8 years). Data were analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. In this cohort where the mean duration of HRT use was 2.8 years, an increased risk in HRT users compared to nonusers was found (relative risk (RR) 1.2 [95% confidence interval 1.1–1.4]). The RR was 1.1 [0.8–1.6] for estrogens used alone and 1.3 [1.1–1.5] when used in combination with oral progestogens. The risk was significantly greater (p <0.001) with HRT containing synthetic progestins than with HRT containing micronized progesterone, the RRs being 1.4 [1.2–1.7] and 0.9 [0.7–1.2], respectively. When combined with synthetic progestins, both oral and transdermal/percutaneous estrogens use were associated with a significantly increased risk; for transdermal/percutaneous estrogens, this was the case even when exposure was less than 2 years. Our results suggest that, when combined with synthetic progestins, even short‐term use of estrogens may increase breast cancer risk. Micronized progesterone may be preferred to synthetic progestins in short‐term HRT. This finding needs further investigation.

Association between Pre-Diagnostic Circulating Vitamin D Concentration and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in European Populations: a Nested Case-Control Study

Objective To examine the association between pre-diagnostic circulating vitamin D concentration, dietary intake of vitamin D and calcium, and the risk of colorectal cancer in European populations. Design Nested case-control study. Setting The study was conducted within the EPIC study, a cohort of more than 520 000 participants from 10 western European countries. Participants 1248 cases of incident colorectal cancer, which developed after enrolment into the cohort, were matched to 1248 controls Main outcome measures Circulating vitamin D concentration (25-hydroxy-vitamin-D, 25-(OH)D) was measured by enzyme immunoassay. Dietary and lifestyle data were obtained from questionnaires. Incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the risk of colorectal cancer by 25-(OH)D concentration and levels of dietary calcium and vitamin D intake were estimated from multivariate conditional logistic regression models, with adjustment for potential dietary and other confounders. Results 25-(OH)D concentration showed a strong inverse linear dose-response association with risk of colorectal cancer (P for trend <0.001). Compared with a pre-defined mid-level concentration of 25-(OH)D (50.0-75.0 nmol/l), lower levels were associated with higher colorectal cancer risk (<25.0 nmol/l: incidence rate ratio 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 2.01); 25.0-49.9 nmol/l: 1.28 (1.05 to 1.56), and higher concentrations associated with lower risk (75.0-99.9 nmol/l: 0.88 (0.68 to 1.13); ≥100.0 nmol/l: 0.77 (0.56 to 1.06)). In analyses by quintile of 25-(OH)D concentration, patients in the highest quintile had a 40% lower risk of colorectal cancer than did those in the lowest quintile (P<0.001). Subgroup analyses showed a strong association for colon but not rectal cancer (P for heterogeneity=0.048). Greater dietary intake of calcium was associated with a lower colorectal cancer risk. Dietary vitamin D was not associated with disease risk. Findings did not vary by sex and were not altered by corrections for season or month of blood donation. Conclusions The results of this large observational study indicate a strong inverse association between levels of pre-diagnostic 25-(OH)D concentration and risk of colorectal cancer in western European populations. Further randomised trials are needed to assess whether increases in circulating 25-(OH)D concentration can effectively decrease the risk of colorectal cancer.

Fruit and vegetable intake and the risk of stomach and oesophagus adenocarcinoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-EURGAST).

It is considered that fruit and vegetable (F&V) protect against oesophagus and gastric cancer (GC). However, 2 recent meta‐analyses suggest that the strength of association on GC seems to be weaker for vegetables than for fruit and weaker in cohort than in case‐control studies. No evidence exists from cohort studies about adenocarcinoma of oesophagus (ACO). In 521,457 men and women participating in the EPIC cohort in 10 European countries, information of diet and lifestyle was collected at baseline. After an average of 6.5 years of follow‐up, a total of 330 GC and 65 ACO, confirmed and classified by a panel of pathologists, was used for the analysis. We examined the relation between F&V intake and GC and ACO. A calibration study in a sub‐sample was used to control diet measurement errors. In a sub‐sample of cases and a random sample of controls, antibodies against Helicobacter pylori (Hp) were measured and interactions with F&V were examined in a nested case‐control study. We observed no association with total vegetable intake or specific groups of vegetables and GC risk, except for the intestinal type, where a negative association is possible regarding total vegetable (calibrated HR 0.66; 95% CI 0.35–1.22 per 100 g increase) and onion and garlic intake (calibrated HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.38–1.29 per 10 g increase). No evidence of association between fresh fruit intake and GC risk was observed. We found a negative but non significant association between citrus fruit intake and the cardia site (calibrated HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.47–1.22 per 100 g increase) while no association was observed with the non‐cardia site. Regarding ACO, we found a non significant negative association for vegetable intake and for citrus intake (calibrated HRs 0.72; 95% CI 0.32–1.64 and 0.77; 95% CI 0.46–1.28 per 100 and 50 g increase, respectively). It seems that Hp infection does not modify the effect of F&V intake. Our study supports a possible protective role of vegetable intake in the intestinal type of GC and the ACO. Citrus fruit consumption may have a role in the protection against cardia GC and ACO.