Franco Borzio

Diagnostic and prognostic role of alpha-fetoprotein in hepatocellular carcinoma: both or neither?

BACKGROUND:The clinical usefulness of α-fetoprotein (AFP) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) management is debatable.OBJECTIVES:To assess, in a large multi-centric survey, diagnostic and prognostic reliability of AFP, predictive factors, and any correlation with the tumor immunophenotype.METHODS:A total of 1,158 patients with HCC were analyzed with reference to serum AFP levels at diagnosis. We evaluated: HCC grading, histotype, and size; Okuda, tumor–nodes–metastases (TNM), and Child-Pugh scores; liver function, symptoms, presence of metastases or portal thrombosis, etiology, survival, and treatment. In 66 patients with histological diagnosis, the pathologists evaluated p53 overexpression, MIB 1 labeling index, BCL-2 positive cells (index of apoptosis), and CD44 (adhesion molecule) positivity.RESULTS:Patients were divided into three AFP groups: normal (<20 ng/mL) [46%], elevated (21–400 ng/mL) [36%], and diagnostic (>400 ng/mL) [18%]. Statistical correlations were significant for: weight loss (P = 0.0056), pain (P = 0.0025), Child-Pugh score (P = 0.001), tumor size, Okudas and TNM stages, metastases, thrombosis, type of treatment (all p < 0.0001), and female sex (p < 0.004). AFP correlated with survival overall, in patients untreated, transplanted, or undergoing locoregional treatments; but not in those surgically treated. In the discriminant analysis, the related variables were size, female sex, Child-Pugh score, TNM staging (steps 1–4). When using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the prognostic reliability of AFP was limited with area under the curve of 0.59. Finally, patients with low expression of BCL2 had high AFP levels (p < 0.05). AFP positively correlated with Edmonson score (p < 0.0001).CONCLUSION:The evaluation of this large series of HCC patients allowed us to: confirm the low sensitivity (54%) of AFP in the diagnosis of HCC and its prognostic value, albeit limited, being tumor size, female sex (intriguingly enough), Child-Pugh score, and TNM staging independent predictors.

Liver cell dysplasia is a major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis: A prospective study

BACKGROUND/AIMS In humans, the role of liver cell dysplasia as a preneoplastic lesion is still debated. A prospective, long-term, multicenter study was performed to establish whether liver cell dysplasia in cirrhosis is associated with an increased risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS A cohort of 307 consecutive patients in whom liver cirrhosis was diagnosed by histology was investigated for development of HCC at 6-month intervals by ultrasonography and determination of alpha-fetoprotein levels. RESULTS At enrollment, liver cell dysplasia was found in 75 patients (24%) and in 53% (P < 0.01) of those positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). After a mean follow-up of 46 months, HCC was detected in 45 cases, and it was significantly more frequent in patients with liver cell dysplasia (P < 0.01) and HBsAg-serum positivity (P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that liver cell dysplasia was the most important risk factor correlated with HCC development. HBsAg positivity and age over 60 years were also independent risk factors for HCC. CONCLUSIONS These results indicate that liver cell dysplasia is a major risk factor for HCC, and it should be looked for carefully by pathologists in liver biopsy specimens to identify patients requiring more intensive observation.

Impact of large regenerative, low grade and high grade dysplastic nodules in hepatocellular carcinoma development

BACKGROUND/AIMS The natural outcome of ultrasound-detected macronodules in cirrhosis is still poorly understood. In this study we assessed the incidence and predictors of malignant transformation in a prospective study of 90 consecutive ultrasound-detected macronodules in cirrhosis. METHODS Macronodules classification was based on recently proposed histological criteria. Extranodular large (LCC) and small cell changes were also evaluated. The follow-up included ultrasound and serum alfa-fetoprotein determination every 3 months. Independent predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. RESULTS During a mean follow-up of 33 months, 28 (31%) nodules transformed into hepatocellular carcinoma. The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma per 100 person-years of follow-up was 11.3%, with a malignant transformation rate of 3.5, 15.5, 31 and 48.5% at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years respectively. High-grade dysplastic nodules (HGDN) (hazard risk=2.4; CI 95%=1.1-5.0) and LCC (hazard risk=3.1; CI 95%=1.2-7.8) were independent predictors of malignant transformation. Eight additional hepatocellular carcinomas developed outside the original lesions raising the overall malignant transformation rate to 40% while 15 macronodules (17%) became undetectable at ultrasound (US). CONCLUSIONS Macronodules characterize a cirrhotic subpopulation with high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. HGDN and LCC are strong predictors of malignant transformation; subjects with simultaneous presence of both these two conditions are at highest risk of cancer development. The management of cirrhotics with macronodules should be based on morphologic features detected on liver microsamples.

Semiannual surveillance is superior to annual surveillance for the detection of early hepatocellular carcinoma and patient survival

BACKGROUND & AIMS The current guidelines recommend the surveillance of cirrhotic patients for early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), based on liver ultrasonography repetition at either 6 or 12 month intervals, since there is no compelling evidence of superiority of the more stringent program. This study aimed at comparing cancer stage, treatment applicability, and survival between patients on semiannual or annual surveillance. METHODS We analyzed the clinical records of 649 HCC patients in Child-Pugh class A or B, observed in ITA.LI.CA centers. HCC was detected in 510 patients submitted to semiannual surveillance (Group 1) and in 139 submitted to annual surveillance (Group 2). In Group 1 the survival was presented as observed and corrected for the lead time. RESULTS The cancer stage was less severe in Group 1 than in Group 2 (p<0.001), with more single tiny (2 cm) and less advanced tumors. Treatment applicability was improved by the semiannual program (p=0.020). The median observed survival was 45 months (95% CI 40.0-50.0) in Group 1 and 30 months (95% CI 24.0-36.0) in Group 2 (p=0.001). The median corrected survival of Group 1 was 40.3 months (95% CI 34.9-45.7) (p=0.028 with respect to the observed survival of Group 2). Age, platelet count, alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh class, cancer stage, and hepatocellular carcinoma treatment were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS Semiannual surveillance increases the detection rate of very early hepatocellular carcinomas and reduces the number of advanced tumors as compared to the annual program. This translates into a greater applicability of effective treatments and into a better prognosis.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in elderly italian patients with cirrhosis: Effects on cancer staging and patient survival

OBJECTIVES:Surveillance of cirrhotic individuals for early detection of HCC, based on ultrasonography (US) and α1-fetoprotein (AFP) determination, is a recommended practice currently applied also to elderly patients. However, several age-related factors may jeopardize the results of surveillance in these patients. Aim of the study was to evaluate the benefit of surveillance for HCC in elderly individuals.METHODS:Multicenter retrospective study on 1,277 consecutive patients with HCC. The inclusion criteria were: underlying chronic liver disease, description of cancer stage, and modalities of its diagnosis. Among the 1,037 patients fulfilling these criteria, 363 aged ≥70 yr were considered.RESULTS:The tumor was detected during surveillance, based on US and AFP performed every 6–12 months, in 158 individuals (group 1), incidentally in 138 (group 2) and because of symptoms in 67 (group 3). Surveillance reduced the risk of dealing with an advanced cancer (odds ratio (95% Confidence Interval): 0.18 (0.09–0.37) vs group 3, and 0.29 (0.17–0.49) vs group 2). The frequency of effective treatments decreased from group 1 to group 3 (73%, 57%, and 31%, respectively). The main cause of death was HCC progression. The survival corrected for the lead time of group 1 (median: 24 months) was significantly better than the crude survival of group 3 (7 months; p= 0.003) and barely better than that of group 2 (21 months). The latter also showed a better prognosis with respect to group 3 (p= 0.018).CONCLUSIONS:Surveillance for HCC improves the survival of elderly cirrhotic patients by expanding the percentage of cancers amenable to effective treatments.

Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging and transplant survival benefit for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicentre, cohort study

BACKGROUND Allocation of deceased-donor livers to patients with chronic liver failure is improved by prioritising patients by 5-year liver transplantation survival benefit. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging has been proposed as the standard means to assess for prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. We aimed to create a prediction model linking the BCLC stage of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma to their 5-year liver transplant benefit. METHODS A large cohort of consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (n=1328) from the ITA.LI.CA database (n=2951) were judged as potentially eligible for liver transplantation according to the following criteria: absence of macroscopic vascular invasion or metastases, age 70 years or younger, and absence of relevant extra-hepatic comorbidities. To assess the correlation between BCLC staging and non-liver transplantation survival, we did Cox univariate and multivariate analyses including the following covariates: BCLC stage, year of diagnosis, age, sex, cause of cirrhosis, model for end-stage liver disease score, α-fetoprotein concentrations, and treatment. Liver-transplantation survival benefit for patients was calculated, using Monte Carlo simulation analysis, as the patients 5-year life expectancy with liver transplantation (estimated by the Metroticket model) minus the 5-year life expectancy without liver transplantation according to BCLC stage. FINDINGS 83 (6%) of 1328 patients had BCLC 0 stage disease, 614 (46%) had BCLC A, 500 (38%) had BCLC B-C, and 131 (10%) had BCLC D. In the Cox non-liver transplantation survival multivariate model, hazard ratios associated with increasing BCLC stages were 1.530 (95% CI 1.107-2.116) for BCLC A versus BCLC 0, 1.572 (1.350-1.830) for BCLC B-C versus BCLC A, and 1.470 (1.164-1.856) for BCLC D versus BCLC B-C. Results of the Monte Carlo simulation analysis confirmed the significant effect of BCLC classification on transplant benefit; in the adjusted model, a median 5-year transplant benefit of 11.19 months (IQR 10.73-11.67) for BCLC 0, 13.49 months (11.51-15.57) for BCLC A, 17.36 months (15.06-19.28) for BCLC B-C, and 28.46 months (26.38-30.34) for BCLC D. INTERPRETATION Liver transplantation could result in survival benefit for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and advanced liver cirrhosis (BCLC stage D) and in those with intermediate tumours (BCLC stages B-C), regardless of the nodule number-size criteria (ie, Milan criteria), provided that macroscopic vascular invasion and extra-hepatic disease are absent. FUNDING None.

Treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma in elderly patients are as effective as in younger patients: a 20-year multicentre experience

Objectives The number of elderly patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is expected to increase. We compared the presenting features and outcome of HCC in elderly (≥70 years) and younger patients (<70 years). Design Multicentre retrospective cohort study and nested case–control study. Patients 614 elderly and 1104 younger patients from the ITA.LI.CA database, including 1834 HCC cases consecutively diagnosed from January 1987 to December 2004. Both groups were stratified according to treatment: hepatic resection, percutaneous procedures, transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE). Survival was assessed in the whole population and in each treatment subgroup. Age, sex, aetiology, cirrhosis, comorbidities and cancer stage (CLIP score) were tested as predictors of survival. In each subgroup, differences in patient survival were also assessed after adjustment and matching by propensity score. Results Ageing was associated with a higher prevalence of comorbidities, better liver function and CLIP score. Regardless of age, two-thirds of patients underwent radical treatments or TACE. Elderly patients underwent more ablative procedures and fewer resections or TACE sessions. The survival of elderly and younger patients was comparable in each treatment subset, and was predicted by CLIP score. This result was confirmed by the propensity analysis. Conclusions The overall applicability of radical or effective HCC treatments was unaffected by old age. However, treatment distribution differed, elderly individuals being more frequently treated with percutaneous procedures and less frequently with resection or TACE. Survival was unaffected by age and primarily predicted by cancer stage, assessed by the CLIP system, both in the overall population and in treatment subgroups.

Effect of the Etiology of Viral Cirrhosis on the Survival of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVES:The aim of this study was to assess whether hepatocellular carcinoma occurring in the setting of hepatitis B or C virus infection has different prognosis.METHODS:We performed a multicentric case-control study comparing 102 pairs of patients affected by hepatitis B virus- or hepatitis C virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma. Patients were matched for sex (male/female: 84/18 pairs), age, center, and period of enrollment, underlying chronic liver disease (cirrhosis/chronic hepatitis: 97/5 pairs), Child-Pugh class (A/B/C: 70/25/7 pairs), hepatocellular carcinoma stage (nonadvanced/advanced: 50/52 pairs) and, when possible, modality of cancer diagnosis (75 pairs: 47 during and 28 outside surveillance).RESULTS:In the whole population, patients with hepatitis B tended to have a poor prognosis than those with hepatitis C (P = 0.160), and this difference became statistically significant among the patients with an advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (P = 0.025). Etiology, Child-Pugh class, gross pathology, and alpha-fetoprotein were the significant independent prognostic factors in the whole population. The distribution of these prognostic factors did not differ between patients with hepatitis B or hepatitis C, both in the whole population and in the subgroup of advanced hepatocellular carcinomas.CONCLUSION:Hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinomas have a greater aggressiveness than hepatitis C virus-related tumors, which becomes clinically manifest once they have reached an advanced stage.

Surveillance for Early Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Is It Effective in Intermediate/Advanced Cirrhosis?

OBJECTIVES:Surveillance of cirrhotic patients for early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), based on ultrasonography and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) measurement, is widely used. Its effectiveness depends on liver function, which affects the feasibility of treatments and cirrhosis-related mortality. We assessed whether patients with intermediate/advanced cirrhosis benefit from surveillance.METHODS:We selected 468 Child-Pugh class B and 140 class C patients from the ITA.LI.CA database, including 1,834 HCC patients diagnosed from January 1987 to December 2004. HCC was detected in 252 patients during surveillance (semiannual 172, annual 80 patients; group 1) and in 356 patients outside surveillance (group 2). Survival of surveyed patients was corrected for the estimated lead time.RESULTS:Child-Pugh class B: cancer stage (P < 0.001) and treatment distribution (P < 0.001) were better in group 1 than in group 2. The median (95% CI) survivals were 17.1 (13.5–20.6) versus 12.0 (9.4–14.6) months and the survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 yr were 60.4% versus 49.2%, 26.1% versus 16.1%, and 10.7% versus 4.3%, respectively (P = 0.022). AFP, gross pathology, and treatment of HCC were independent prognostic factors. Child-Pugh class C: cancer stage (P = 0.001) and treatment distribution (P = 0.021) were better in group 1 than in group 2. Nonetheless, median survival did not differ: 7.1 (2.1–12.1) versus 6.0 (4.1–7.9) months (P = 0.740).CONCLUSIONS:These results suggest surveillance be offered to class B patients and maintained for class A patients who migrate to the subsequent class. Surveillance becomes pointless in class C patients probably because the poor liver function adversely affects the overall mortality and HCC treatments.

The evaluation of fine-needle procedures for the diagnosis of focal liver lesions in cirrhosis

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of fine-needle aspiration, fine-needle biopsy and extranodular fine needle biopsy in identifying focal lesions in cirrhosis, 100 consecutive ultrasound detected nodules were studied. Seventy-three were hepatocellular carcinomas (31 were well-differentiated hepatocellular carcinomas), 23 were benign lesions (one angioma and 22 large regenerative nodules) and two were metastases. The lesions were divided according to maximum diameter as follows: < 20 mm in 36, > 20 < 30 mm in 27, and > 30 mm in 33. In four cases there were multiple nodules of different sizes. Fine needle aspiration, intranodular fine needle biopsy and extranodular fine needle biopsy were obtained in each lesion. The sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy of each procedure were evaluated separately by three independent pathologists. Seven fine needle aspirations and three intranodular fine needle biopsies were considered inadequate. The highest diagnostic accuracy (96%) was obtained by the combined analysis of fine needle aspiration plus intranodular and extranodular fine needle biopsy, and this superiority was confirmed in each group of lesions. Fine needle aspiration showed a lower accuracy (48%) than intranodular fine needle biopsy (67%). When fine needle aspiration and intranodular fine needle biopsy were evaluated together, an accuracy of 91% was found. Intralesional fine needle biopsy plus extranodular fine needle biopsy analysis gave an accuracy of 78% and, particularly relevant, a specificity of 95%. These results indicate that, in patients with cirrhosis with nodular lesions < 30 mm, fine needle biopsy is superior to fine needle aspiration and that the combined evaluation of fine needle aspiration plus intranodular and extranodular fine needle biopsy is the most accurate approach.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)