Franco Marenco

Operational prediction of ash concentrations in the distal volcanic cloud from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

[1] During the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, improvements were made to the modeling procedure at the Met Office, UK, enabling peak ash concentrations within the volcanic cloud to be estimated. In this paper we describe the ash concentration forecasting method, its rationale and how it evolved over time in response to new information and user requirements. The change from solely forecasting regions of ash to also estimating peak ash concentrations required consideration of volcanic ash emission rates, the fraction of ash surviving near-source fall-out, and the relationship between predicted mean and local peak ash concentrations unresolved by the model. To validate the modeling procedure, predicted peak ash concentrations are compared against observations obtained by ground-based and research aircraft instrumentation. This comparison between modeled and observed peak concentrations highlights the many sources of error and the uncertainties involved. Despite the challenges of predicting ash concentrations, the ash forecasting method employed here is found to give useful guidance on likely ash concentrations. Predicted peak ash concentrations lie within about one and a half orders of magnitude of the observed peak concentrations. A significant improvement in the agreement between modeled and observed values is seen if a buffer zone, accounting for positional errors in the predicted ash cloud, is used. Sensitivity of the predicted ash concentrations to the source properties (e.g., the plume height and the vertical distribution of ash at the source) is assessed and in some cases, seemingly minor uncertainties in the source specification have a large effect on predicted ash concentrations.

A case study of observations of volcanic ash from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption: 1. In situ airborne observations

On 17 May 2010, the FAAM BAe-146 aircraft made remote and in situ measurements of the volcanic ash cloud from EyjafjallajA�¶kull over the southern North Sea. The Falcon 20E aircraft operated by Deutsches Zentrum fA�¼r Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) also sampled the ash cloud on the same day. While no A¢Â�Â�wingtip-to-wingtipA¢Â�Â� co-ordination was performed, the proximity of the two aircraft allows worthwhile comparisons. Despite the high degree of inhomogeneity (e.g., column ash loadings varied by a factor of three over �100 km) the range of ash mass concentrations and the ratios between volcanic ash mass and concentrations of SO2, O3 and CO were consistent between the two aircraft and within expected instrumental uncertainties. The data show strong correlations between ash mass, SO2 concentration and aerosol scattering with the FAAM BAe-146 data providing a specific extinction coefficient of 0.6A¢Â�Â�0.8 m2 g�1. There were significant differences in the observed ash size distribution with FAAM BAe-146 data showing a peak in the mass at �3.5 mm (volume-equivalent diameter) and DLR data peaking at �10 mm. Differences could not be accounted for by refractive index and shape assumptions alone. The aircraft in situ and lidar data suggest peak ash concentrations of 500A¢Â�Â�800 mg m�3 with a factor of two uncertainty. Comparing the location of ash observations with the ash dispersion model output highlights differences that demonstrate the difficulties in forecasting such events and the essential nature of validating models using high quality observational data from platforms such as the FAAM BAe-146 and the DLR Falcon.

The Turbulent Structure and Diurnal Growth of the Saharan Atmospheric Boundary Layer

The turbulent structure and growth of the remote Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is described with in situ radiosonde and aircraft measurements and a large-eddy simulation model. A month of radiosonde data from June 2011 provides a mean profile of the midday Saharan ABL, which is characterized by a well-mixed convective boundary layer, capped by a small temperature inversion (,1K) and a deep, near-neutral residual layer. The boundary layer depth varies by up to 100% over horizontal distances of a few kilometers due to turbulent processes alone. The distinctive vertical structure also leads to unique boundary layer processes, such as detrainment of the warmest plumes across the weak temperature inversion, which slows down the warming and growth of the convective boundary layer. As the boundary layer grows, overshooting plumes can also entrain freetropospheric air into the residual layer, forming a second entrainment zone that acts to maintain the inversion above the convective boundary layer, thus slowing down boundary layer growth further. A single-column model is unable to accurately reproduce the evolution of the Saharan boundary layer, highlighting the difficulty of representing such processes in large-scale models. These boundary layer processes are special to the Sahara, and possiblyhot, dry,desertenvironmentsingeneral, andhaveimplicationsforthelarge-scalestructureoftheSaharan heat low. The growth of the boundary layer influences the vertical redistribution of moisture and dust, and the spatial coverage and duration of clouds, with large-scale dynamical and radiative implications.

Lagrangian dust model simulations for a case of moist convective dust emission and transport in the western Sahara region during Fennec/LADUNEX

Due to the harshness and inaccessibility of desert regions, the uncertainties concerning the processes of dust mobilization at the surface, airborne transport, and sedimentation are still considerable, limiting the ability to perform model simulations. In June 2011, a comprehensive data set of ground-based and airborne in situ measurements and remote sensing observations was acquired within the Fennec/Lagrangian Dust Source Inversion Experiment (LADUNEX) field campaign in the western Sahara region. Here we evaluate the ability of the state-of-the-art Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, newly fitted with a dust mobilization capability, to simulate dust transport in this region. We investigate a case where a large mesoscale convective system (MCS) triggered dust emissions in central Mali, which subsequently moved as a large cold pool dust front toward northern Mauritania. Specifying dust mobilization for this case is shown to be an important obstacle to simulating dust transport during this event, since neither the MCS nor the associated cold pool-causing dust emission is represented in the meteorological analysis. Obtaining a realistic dust transport simulation for this case therefore requires an inversion approach using a manual specification of the dust sources supported by satellite imagery. When compared to in situ and remote sensing data from two aircraft, the Lagrangian dust transport simulations represent the overall shape and evolution of the dust plume well. While accumulation and coarse mode dust are well represented in the simulation, giant mode particles are considerably underestimated. Our results re-emphasize that dust emission associated with deep moist convection remains a key issue for reliable dust model simulations in northern Africa.

Volcanic ash layer depth: Processes and mechanisms

The long duration of the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption provided a unique opportunity to measure a widely dispersed volcanic ash cloud. Layers of volcanic ash were observed by the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network with a mean depth of 1.2 km and standard deviation of 0.9 km. In this paper we evaluate the ability of the Met Offices Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) to simulate the observed ash layers and examine the processes controlling their depth. NAME simulates distal ash layer depths exceptionally well with a mean depth of 1.2 km and standard deviation of 0.7 km. The dominant process determining the depth of ash layers over Europe is the balance between the vertical wind shear (which acts to reduce the depth of the ash layers) and vertical turbulent mixing (which acts to deepen the layers). Interestingly, differential sedimentation of ash particles and the volcano vertical emission profile play relatively minor roles.

Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian Monsoon

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

Unusual vertical structure of the Saharan Air Layer and giant dustparticles during AER-D

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in the summertime Eastern Atlantic is typically well-mixed and 3–4 km deep, overlying the marine boundary layer (MBL). In this paper, we show experimental evidence that at times a very different structure can be observed. During the AER-D airborne campaign in August 2015, the typical structure described above was observed most of the times, and was associated with a moderate dust content yielding an Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) of 0.3–0.4 at 355 nm. In an intense event, however, an unprecedented vertical structure was observed close to the Eastern boundary of the 5 basin, displaying an uneven vertical distribution and a very large AOD (1.5–2), with most of the dust in a much lower level than usual (0.3–2 km). Estimated dust concentrations and column loadings spanned 300–5,500 μg m−3 and 0.8–7.5 g m−2, respectively. The shortwave direct radiative impact of the intense dust event has been evaluated to be as large as−260±30 and −120±15 W m−2 at the surface and top of atmosphere, respectively. This event was also correlated with anomalous lightning activity in the Canary Islands. 10 In all cases, our measurements detected a broad distribution of aerosol sizes, ranging from ∼ 0.1 to ∼ 80 μm (diameter), thus highlighting the presence of giant particles. Giant dust particles were also found in the MBL. We note that most aerosol models may miss the giant particles due to the fact that they use size bins up to 10–25 μm. The unusual vertical structure and the giant particles may have implications for dust transport over the Atlantic during intense events, and may affect the estimate of dust deposited to the Ocean. We believe that future campaigns should focus more on events with high aerosol load, and that 15 instrumentation capable of detecting giant particles will be key to dust observations in this part of the world.

A self-consistent high- and low-frequency scattering model for cirrus

This paper demonstrates that an ensemble model of cirrus ice crystals that follows observed mass-dimensional power laws can predict the scattering properties of cirrus across the electromagnetic spectrum, without the need for tailor made scattering models for particular regions of the spectrum. The ensemble model predicts a mass-dimensional power law of the following form, mass ∝ D2 (where D is the maximum dimension of the ice crystal). This same mass-dimensional power law is applied across the spectrum to predict the particle size distribution (PSD) using a moment estimation parameterization of the PSD. The PSD parameterization predicts the original PSD, using in-situ estimates (bulk measurements) of the ice water content (IWC) and measurements of the in-cloud temperature; the measurements were obtained from a number of mid-latitude cirrus cases, which occurred over the U.K. during the winter and spring of 2010. It is demonstrated that the ensemble model predicts lidar backscatter estimates, at 0.355 μm,...