François Gemenne

Preparing for Resettlement Associated with Climate Change

Mitigation and adaptation projects will lead to increased population displacement, calling for new research and attention to past lessons. Although there is agreement that climate change will result in population displacements and migration, there are differing views on the potential volume of flows, the likely source and destination areas, the relative role of climatic versus other factors in precipitating movements, and whether migration represents a failure of adaptation (1, 2). We argue that climate change mitigation and adaptation (M&A) actions, which will also result in significant population displacements, have not received sufficient attention. Given the emergence of resettlement as an adaptation response, it is critical to learn from research on development-forced displacement and resettlement (DFDR). We discuss two broad categories of potential displacement in response to (i) climate impacts themselves and (ii) large-scale M&A projects. We discuss policy approaches for facilitating migration and, where communities lack resources to migrate, suggest guidelines for organized resettlement.

Climate-induced population displacements in a 4°C+ world.

Massive population displacements are now regularly presented as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. Current forecasts and projections show that regions that would be affected by such population movements are low-lying islands, coastal and deltaic regions, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. Such estimates, however, are usually based on a 2°C temperature rise. In the event of a 4°C+ warming, not only is it likely that climate-induced population movements will be more considerable, but also their patterns could be significantly different, as people might react differently to temperature changes that would represent a threat to their very survival. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that a greater temperature change would affect not only the magnitude of the associated population movements, but also—and above all—the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. The paper outlines the policy evolutions that climate-induced displacements in a 4°C+ world would require.

Climate and security: evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda

There are diverse linkages between climate change and security including risks of conflict, national security concerns, critical national infrastructure, geo-political rivalries and threats to human security. We review analysis of these domains from primary research and from policy prescriptive and advocacy sources. We conclude that much analysis over-emphasises deterministic mechanisms between climate change and security. Yet the climate-security nexus is more complex than it appears and requires attention from across the social sciences. We review the robustness of present social sciences analysis in assessing the causes and consequences of climate change on human security, and identify new areas of research. These new areas include the need to analyse the absence of conflict in the face of climate risks and the need to expand the range of issues accounted for in analysis of climate and security including the impacts of mitigation response on domains of security. We argue for the necessity of robust theories that explain causality and associations, and the need to include theories of asymmetric power relations in explaining security dimensions. We also highlight the dilemmas of how observations and historical analysis of climate and security dimensions may be limited as the climate changes in ways that present regions with unprecedented climate risks.

A Country Made for Disasters: Environmental Vulnerability and Forced Migration in Bangladesh

There is a broad consensus amongst the scientific community that South Asia is amongst the regions most affected by climate change. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007) the main climate change impacts in the region are as follows: increased frequency of droughts and floods negatively affecting local production; sea level rise exposing coasts to increasing risks, including coastal erosion and growing human-induced pressures on coastal areas; and glacier melt in the Himalayas with more flooding and rock avalanches. Crop yields could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-twenty-first century. Within South Asia, Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country because of its regional connectivity through geo-physical and hydrological features and its livelihood reliance on trade (ELIAMEP, 2008).

Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

Significance A major uncertainty concerning the 21st century climate is the ice sheet response to global warming. Paleodata indicate rapid ice sheet destabilizations during the last deglaciation, which could lead to an underestimation of sea level rise, as suggested in recent publications. Therefore, we explore the impact of different scenarios of Greenland partial melting in the very sensitive Sahel region. We first demonstrate that such a melting induces a drastic decrease of West African monsoon precipitation. Moreover, we quantify the agricultural area losses due to monsoon changes. Consequently, we pinpoint a large potential for migration of millions of people in the coming decades. Thus, the ice sheet destabilization provokes not only coastal damages but also large population migration in monsoon area. The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agroecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.

What’s in a Name: Social Vulnerabilities and the Refugee Controversy in the Wake of Hurricane Katrina

Abundant literature on disasters has shown that a natural hazard does not always result in a disaster. It only does so when the hazard hits in a context of social vulnerability (Oliver-Smith and Hoffman, 2002). The case of hurricane Katrina provides an example particularly showing this interaction between natural hazards and social vulnerabilities.

The influence of health concerns in scientific and policy debates on climate change

In 2009, scientists argued that climate change was the ‘biggest global health threat of the 21st century’,1 and 6 years later ‘the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century’.2 While a minority of populations may experience health benefits (mostly due to a reduction in diseases related to cold weather), the global burden of disease and premature death is expected to increase progressively.3 For instance, one study showed that heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of approximately 2000 deaths.4 Much of the policy development on climate change comes from the negotiations between the 195 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), working towards a common long-term vision of limiting global warming. The 21th Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris in December 2015 was one milestone in the fight against climate change, as all countries agreed to take action by curbing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and keep global warming well below 2°C. The agreement also included a regular review of national commitments every 5 years to check progress. Moreover, it represented an important step to protect and promote health in the face of climate change: for the first time ‘the right to health’ was mentioned in the global agreement on climate change. The WHO referred to the COP21 as ‘a historic win for human health’, and this climate treaty might actually become a public health treaty as countries take action to develop adaptation plans that will protect human health from the worst impacts of climate change.5 This opinion article seeks to present the role of health concerns in the scientific debates on climate change, but also in actual climate policies and international negotiations. ### Climate change-related health concerns in scientific debates Awareness of the health risks caused by …

Connecting planetary health, climate change, and migration

www.thelancet.com/planetary-health Vol 2 February 2018 e58 Climate change is increasingly understood to be an important driver of migration and displacement worldwide, although the magnitude of such population movements remains disputed. Improving the health of migrants and reducing adverse health outcomes related to migration are also growing concerns globally. Current crises related to migration and displacement, whether in the Horn of Africa or the Mediterranean, highlight the different challenges related to migrants’ health, especially in humanitarian emergencies. Planetary health, as a new discipline, was created to safeguard human health in the Anthropocene epoch. It revolves around a new interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approach that seeks to explore the effects of environmental change on human health. Planetary health focuses in particular on two dimensions: the first situates human health within human systems, looking at the threats faced by our species such as pandemics or climate change; the second concentrates on the natural systems within which our species evolve and looks at the health and diversity of the biosphere. Although migrants’ health and climate-induced migration are known to be major challenges at present, few attempts have been made to consider the complex associations that unite climate change, migration, and health in an integrated three-pronged nexus. Therefore, we propose a basic explanatory framework that highlights the linkages between these three dimensions and seeks to encourage debate, and new research, about how planetary health is concerned with, and within, this three-pronged nexus (figure). Climate change is known to affect populations’ health (pathway A; figure). Most of this influence is through direct exposures such as heatwaves or extreme weather events, although less direct impacts arise from disruptions to environmental, ecological, and social systems. Issues such as proliferation of new or resistant strains of pathogens are also an unwelcome scenario. The indirect impacts arising from environmental, ecological and social systems will affect human health through changes in food yields, freshwater flows and quality, stability of infectious disease patterns, air quality, social cohesion, and family income and livelihoods. Indeed, climate change could threaten food security through reductions in agricultural and fishery yields. This effect is particularly alarming in regions that are already facing food insecurity such as in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. Moreover, the occurrence of flooding or drought cycles as well as hotter summers in some regions are likely to increase risks to agricultural productivity. Climate change will also impact the geographical range, seasonality, and incidence of various infectious diseases, such as malaria, diarrhoeal diseases, and cholera. These impacts, especially extreme weather events, sea-level rise, soil degradation, and food and water scarcity are strongly associated with migration (pathway B; figure). In some cases migration will be a strategy of last resort, with people left with no other choice as a result of loss of habitable land, extreme health risks, or deteriorating livelihoods. In this case, displacement might increase the risks of adverse health outcomes, in particular for vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly, as well as those who are already suffering from (chronic) illnesses (pathway C; figure). Migration can also be a voluntary choice, although forced migration and voluntary migration are not two discrete categories, but rather the two ends of a continuum. Migration is not automatically an indicator of vulnerability; it can also be an adaptive Connecting planetary health, climate change, and migration

Managing Environmental Migration to Improve Economic and Social Outcomes in Developing Asia and Pacific

This paper assesses that millions of persons are displaced annually in the Asia and Pacific region due to large concentrated populations residing in areas exposed to environmental risks. Some of those displaced end up becoming migrants, establishing their home in a new location. Migration influenced by environmental factors is contributing to the urbanization trend in the region. Displacement and migration are expected to increase in the coming years due to the impacts of climate change, and the increasing number of people residing in areas at risk of extreme environmental events or slow-onset phenomenon, such as rising sea levels. In addressing environmentally driven migration, a key policy aim should be to curtail the likelihood of forced displacement. “Climate proofing” of physical infrastructure and government support to vulnerable and poor populations can strengthen resilience. Although environmentally driven migration generally unfolds within a country’s borders, it can also take on an international character. For this reason, governments need to collaborate in tackling this challenge. If the threat of environmentally driven migration is properly managed and planned, benefits can accrue to migrants, host communities, and communities of origin.

Migration as a Climate Adaptation Strategy

People react to environmental degradation in many diverse ways. It has long been recognized, however, that changes to the environment can induce significant population movements, either as a direct consequence of these changes or because of the impacts that environmental changes have on other drivers of migration, such as poverty or food security. In recent years, scholars and policy makers alike have expressed rising concern that climate change could become a key driver of migration in the coming decades.