Frank D. Voss

Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: A case study in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.

Evaluation of Intra-annual Variation in U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Ground Water Quality Data

Assessment of ground-water quality trends under the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) included the analysis of samples collected on a quarterly basis for 1 yr between 2001 and 2005. The purpose of this quarterly sampling was to test the hypothesis that variations in the concentration of water-quality parameters of selected individual wells could demonstrate that the intra-annual variation was greater or less than the decadal changes observed for a trend network. Evaluation of more than 100 wells over this period indicates that 1 yr of quarterly sampling is not adequate to address the issue of intra-annual variation because variations seem to be random and highly variable between different wells in the same networks and among networks located in different geographical areas of the USA. In addition, the data from only 1 yr makes it impossible to assess whether variations are due to univariate changes caused by land use changes, hydrologic variations due to variable recharge, or variations caused by ground-water pumping. These data indicate that funds allocated to this activity can be directed to the collection of more effective trend data, including age dating of all wells in the NAWQA network using multiple techniques. Continued evaluation of data and updating of monitoring plans of the NAWQA program is important for maintaining relevance to national goals and scientific objectives.

Climate change and Yakama Nation tribal well-being

The Yakima River Basin (Basin) in south-central Washington is a prime example of a place where competing water uses, coupled with over-allocation of water resources, have presented water managers with the challenge of meeting current demand, anticipating future demand, and preparing for potential impacts of climate change. We took a decision analysis approach that gathered diverse stakeholders to discuss their concerns pertaining to climate change effects on the Basin and future goals that were collectively important. One main focus was centered on how climate change may influence future salmon populations. Salmon have played a prominent role in the cultures of Basin communities, especially for tribal communities that have social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic ties to them. Stakeholders identified the need for a better understanding on how the cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic aspects of the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation could be affected by changes in salmon populations. In an attempt to understand the complexities of these potential effects, this paper proposes a conceptual model which 1) identifies cultural values and components and the interactions between those components that could influence tribal well-being, and 2) shows how federal natural resource managers could incorporate intangible tribal cultural components into decision-making processes by understanding important components of tribal well-being. Future work includes defining the parameterization of the cultural components in order for the conceptual model to be incorporated with biophysical resource models for scenario simulations.

Design and testing of a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system for predicting concentrations of agrichemicals in groundwater across the United States

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