Frank E. Wicks

Sequential Objective Linear Programming for Generation Planning

Generation planning usually involves finding a generation expansion and operating policy that minimizes present worth cost while meeting projected demands and other imposed constraints. However, the planning process is becoming increasingly complex with a number of objectives becoming increasingly desirable. In addition to minimum revenue requirements, other possible objectives include minization of new power plant construction, maximization of reliability, minimization of public health hazard (e.g. via emitted pollutants), and minimization of environmental hazards (e.g. via heat rejected to bodies of water).

Applications of Improved Techniques to the Evaluation of Electric Energy Alternatives for New York State

This paper describes the applications of improved techniques to the evaluation of electric energy alternatives available to New York State. Features of these improved techniques include a linear programming calculation of optimal policy and health-social-environmental implications on a high performance computational system utilizing three computers to provide the user with an interactive graphic interface, fast turnaround, and low computational cost. These techniques have been applied to the evaluations of fifteen categories of contemporary New York State electric generation policy questions. The linear programming method simultaneously optimizes generation expansion decisions and operating strategy over the full duration of the planning period. The interactive graphics is programmed to provide inexperienced and experienced users with a flexible and easy to follow set of instructions for formulating the input forecasts and constraints for a case study and an excellent basis for interpreting the resulting strategy and implications.

Impacts of Electric Heat on Generation and Primary Fuel Requirements

Electric utilities are forecasting increased penetrations of electric heat as a result of potential shortages and higher prices of heating oil and natural gas. However, the amount, the type, and the insulation levels of the electric heated structures, and thus the resulting benefits and implications remain uncertain. A credible evaluation of electric heat benefits and implications requires an aggregate evaluation of generating capacity and electric demand over a realistic planning period. Methods for performing these evaluations have been developed by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. These methods couple a physically and weather based electric demand forecast model with a generation planning model that utilizes linear programming to calculate the corresponding optimal generation and operating strategy. This data is then postprocessed to calculate the incremental generation and primary fuel requirements for electric heat. This paper employs a New York State data base of electric generation, load patterms, electric heat forecasts and weather to calculate the generation and primary fuel requirements for electric heat during the 1980 to 1999 planning period.

Impacts of Solar Heating Options Upon Electric Power Systems

With increased popular emphasis on solar energy in recent years, concern has been raised about possible adverse effects the application of solar energy in residential and commercial sectors could have on electric utilities. Possible problems are deterioration of the generating system load factor, increasing the generating system peak load and placing electric utilities at the mercy of bad weather conditions. Much solar energy research has dealt with the design and construction of individual solar heating systems but has failed to address these potential problems of the large-scale effects of solar energy on electric utilities. In order to evaluate these problems, solar energy research must be coupled with the capability of evaluating generating capacity and electric demand over a realistic planning period. Methods of incorporating solar energy coupled loads into generation planning research have been developed at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. An hour-by-hour simulation of a solar-assisted heat pump which utilizes actual weather data is combined with data of the New York State electric power load for the corresponding hours. This information is then processed with a generation planning model that utilizes linear programming to calculate the corresponding optimum generation and operating strategy. This data is then post-processed to determine the implication of solar heating on power generation and primary fuel requirements. By combining actual weather and electric demand data with forecasts of future power generation and electric heating use, a realistic projection of solar heatings impact on New York State utilities is evaluated over the 1980 to 1999 planning period.

Applications of Improved Financial Simulation Techniques to the Evaluation of Electric Energy Alternatives for New York State

The increasing financing problems of electric utilities is examined by application of improved financial simulation techniques to alternative generation expansion plans for New York State. Coupling of the financial simulation to an optimizing generation planning program, utilization of a computatlonally efficient interactive graphics system, and capability to automatically seek solutions to financing problems allows evaluation of the relative merits of a wide range of commonly suggested solutions to financing problems. Solutions evaluated include allowing higher returns on equity, construction work in progress (CWIP) in rate base, increased use of normalization of tax benefits, and higher equity ratios.

System Evaluation of Heat Pumps Operated in Both Heating and Air Conditioning Modes

This paper demonstrates the development and application of total system methods for the evaluation of the impacts of heat pumps used in both heating and cooling modes in terms of time-dependent system demand, primary fuel requirements and central electric generating capacity requirements over a generation planning period. A model which breaks down cooling energy requirements into its weather sensitive components is presented. The model is then applied to the 1977 New York State electric power system in order to evaluate the impacts that various penetration levels of heat pumps would have had if they were installed on the system. The longer range impacts of the heat pumps is then evaluated in a set of cases which gradually introduce the heat pumps over a 1981 to 2000 electric power system planning period. Evaluations are made in terms of installed thermal generating capacity, operating strategy and primary fuel requirements.

Analysis of Electrification Alternatives to Oil Fueled Low Pressure Boilers in the Commercial Sector

Large amounts of oil are consumed by low pressure utility boilers that supply steam for commercial space heat, hot water and air conditioning requirements. The historical advantages of this type of utility system includes moderate capital costs. significantly lower cost of the residual oil that can be burned in these facilities relative to lighter heating oils and capability to centralize utility operations. However, large changes in energy costs, fuel availabilities and overall energy policy objectives dictate a reevaluation of these systems relative to the alternatives. These alternatives include electric heat because of potential of substituting nuclear or coal for oil or else cogeneration because of the potential of rejecting less heat and thus saving oil by utilizing oil more efficiently. Each of these alternatives also has a range of equipment type and sizing options.

Integration of Financial Constraints into Optimal Generation Planning

This paper describes the development and application of a methodology for electric utility generation planning which calculates the optimal strategy to satisfy both standard and financial constraints in a single program. The current model has been developed on the basis of OPPLAN, an optimal generation planning methodology based on linear programming techniques. One of the financial constraints imposed on the linear program in the OPPLAN specifies that the interest coverage ratio must be greater than a user-specified minimum coverage ratio. Three nonlinear relationships were encountered during formulating the coverage ratio. The following statements express the nonlinear relationships. 1) When retained earnings are greater than new equity, all retained earnings must be used for construction. 2) The federal income tax (FIT) must be included only if it is positive. 3) The AFUDC portion allowed in the coverage ratio calculations must be equal to the lesser of the total amount of AFUDC and a certain percentage (usually 10%) of operating income. These are linearized by use of 0, 1 variables. To accelerate the computing speed, two provisions are made: 1) a user specifies whether there will be any equity issuance annually, and he then runs OPPLAN, and compares the selection with RPIFSM (a financial simulation programs) results. If the results are different, he corrects the selection according to RPIFSM. 2) FIT is positive by default. These two options provide rapid convergence to a solution. The new methodology is applied to several case studies.

Development and Application of Linear Programming Planning Methods for Pumped Storage Hydro

A linear programming model for electric generation planning has been extended to provide the options required for pumped storage hydro planning. Pumped storage hydro is defined by installed capacity and capacity factor. The corresponding four options desirable planning purposes are the capability to 1) specify capacity factor and solve for optimal installed capacity or 2) solve for both optimal installed capacity and capacity factor. The model calculates the total electric planning strategy that minimizes present worth cost, or any other objective specified by the planner subject to the input option and data base. The planner can also perform the primary and secondary objective analysis via a sequential objective feature.

Financial Analysis of Large Versus Small Nuclear Power Plants

There have been no new orders for nuclear plants and many nuclear plants under construction have been cancelled in recent years in the United States. Financing problems have been a major factor in this slow down of new nuclear plant activity. Meanwhile, the nuclear plants that have been completed have been operating cost effectively and vielding fossil fuel conservation and air quality bene fits. Smaller plants have been designed in the past for the purpose of penetrating markets in developing countries and countries with relatively small utility systems. This paper examines the question of whether these smaller plants would be a viable option to large nuclear plants in the United States. Although the smaller plants are estimated to have a somewhat higher capital cost on a