Frank J. Cesario

A New Method for Analyzing Outdoor Recreation Trip Data.

ABSTRACTThis paper contains the results of an application in Southern Ontario of a new two-stage methodology for estimating certain parameters of outdoor recreation travel. Specifically, Stage I ex...

Least-squares estimation of trip distribution parameters

Abstract A least-squares approach for estimating parameters of trip distribution models commonly used in urban and regional transportation studies is developed. For a small reference system with three origins and three destinations parameters estimated by least squares are compared to parameters estimated by the maximum likelihood procedure developed by Hyman and Evans. Some ideas for further research are given.

A new interpretation of the “normalizing” or “balancing” factors of gravity-type spatial models

Abstract As the title implies, this paper provides a new way of viewing the so-called “normalizing” or “balancing” factors of generalized gravity-type spatial models. This new interpretation—a more precise version of an earlier interpretation offered by Wilson—is made in terms of the notions of origin and destination accessibilities which are shown to implicitly underly the model. The first part of the paper discusses several previous interpretations of balancing factors. The notions of origin and destination accessibilities are presented in the second section. The third section provides new interpretations of balancing factors in terms of these accessibility notions. The fourth section presents some new modeling results which are made possible by this new interpretation of balancing factors. The fifth and final section of the paper discusses a potentially fruitful direction for further research.

Demand curves for public facilities

Attempts to estimate social benefits of public services by use of a willingness-to-pay metric have been hampered by the inability to generate the relevant demand curves. In this paper a novel technique for computing demand curves for existing and proposed direct and indirect public service facilities is developed. The technique is an extension of the Hotelling-Clawson-Knetsch method for estimating benefits associated with certain types of outdoor recreation facilities. The method relies upon the use of travel cost as a proxy for price; extensions are made in the way that substitution effects are incorporated into the model. After the model and its properties are specified a successful empirical application is made in the estimation of the benefits of selected outdoor recreation sites in the northeast United States. Results indicate that realistic estimates can be made at a relatively low cost.

Impacts of fuel shortages on R & D in the automotive industries

Abstract Historically, R & D efforts in the oligopolistic automotive industry have dealt mainly with seeking the changes in styling and other visible characteristics of automobiles which would appeal to the status-conscious American public. Recent fuel shortages coupled with the national desire to achieve certain environmental goals promise to change the character of automotive R & D, at least in the short term. The conclusions of this paper are that major emphasis will now be placed on (a) the development of improved lightweight vehicles and (b) the development of new propulsion technologies having desirable fuel consumption as well as pollutant emission characteristics.

Optimal road pricing for air pollution control

Existence of substantial (external) social costs of automobile travel can result in a suboptimal allocation of transportation resources. 1 One possible way of ameliorating the problem involves assessing each highway user a charge commensurate with the social costs he inflicts on others. This paper considers the problem of establishing the appropriate (social) charges or tolls to be levied.: Although several writers have considered the social cost problem in connection with the congestion pricing of automobile travel (cf. Mantell [2], Mohring [4], Strotz [5], Zettel and Carll [9], Vickrey [6], and Walters [7, 8]), virtually no substantive light has been shed on the pollution pricing problem. In all of the previous works on congestion, some form of marginal cost pricing has been considered. And, in at least one case (Walters [8]), the welfare implications of such schemes have been examined. Kneese [1] has suggested that a model useful for calculating optimal pollution charges might indeed resemble the above congestion cost models. This is the general approach followed in this paper. In particular, a pollution model based on a marginal cost pricing concept is developed that builds on (and then conveniently discards) the Waiters model for congestion.

Benefit-cost analysis under pricing constraints

The economist makes recommendations in a world full of imperfections. Many of these imperfections will persist and thus must be treated as constraints on the analysis being conducted. Second-best recommendations are thus in order. This paper examines the principles underlying a benefit-cost analysis which must be conducted within the context of a pricing constraint. Specifically, social gains from investment schemes which serve to ameliorate congestion on public facilities are examined under two assumptions about pricing: Policy I-congestion tolls are charged, and Policy II-congestion tolls are not charged. It is seen that when pricing policy is treated as a constraint on the analysis, efficiency may sometimes be served by having projects approved under Policy II that would not be approved under policy I.

Trip generation and distribution: the inconsistency problem and a possible remedy

There are many shortcomings commonly associated with the conventional urban transportation modeling process. This paper focuses on one of the more important problems - the inconsistency between trip generation and distribution components - and suggests a possible way of alleviating it. The suggested approach involves sorting out the independent effects on tripmaking of origin, destination and travel cost characteristics, and introducing accessibility measures explicitly into the modeling process. The resulting modeling framework can be used to obtain consistent estimates of trip generation and distribution quantities which are responsive to changes in the transportation and spatial systems. (a) /TRRL/