Frank J. Wolters

Association Between Atrial Fibrillation and Dementia in the General Population

IMPORTANCE Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been suggested as a risk factor for dementia since it may lead to chronic cerebral hypoperfusion and stroke. However, longitudinal studies assessing the association between AF and dementia have shown inconsistent results. OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of AF on the risk of developing dementia during 20 years of follow-up. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The association of prevalent and incident AF with incident dementia was assessed from July 6, 1989, to February 4, 2010, in 6514 dementia-free participants in the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Data analysis was conducted from September 18, 2014, to April 17, 2015. Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusting for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors; censored for stroke; and stratified by median age were used. In addition, we investigated whether the association between incident AF and dementia varied according to the duration of exposure, categorized in 6-year time bands. EXPOSURES Prevalent and incident AF. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident dementia, determined according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Third Edition Revised) and the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimers Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria. RESULTS At baseline, 318 of 6514 participants (4.9%) had prevalent AF, and during 81 483 person-years of follow-up, 994 participants (15.3%) developed incident dementia. With findings presented as adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI), prevalent AF was related to an increased risk of dementia (1.33; 1.02-1.73). Among 6196 participants without prevalent AF during 79 003 person-years of follow-up, 723 participants (11.7%) developed incident AF and 932 individuals (15.0%) developed incident dementia. Incident AF was associated with an increased risk of dementia in younger participants (<67 years: 1.81; 1.11-2.94 vs ≥67 years: 1.12; 0.85-1.46; P = .02 for interaction). The risk of dementia was strongly associated with duration of exposure to AF in the younger participants (in the highest stratum: 3.30; 1.16-9.38; P = .003 for trend) but not in the elder participants (0.25; 0.04-1.86; P = .94 for trend). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of dementia, independent of clinical stroke. This association was strongest for younger participants with the longest duration of AF. Future studies should investigate whether optimal treatment of AF can prevent or postpone dementia.

Association of Cerebral Microbleeds With Cognitive Decline and Dementia

IMPORTANCE Cerebral microbleeds are hypothesized downstream markers of brain damage caused by vascular and amyloid pathologic mechanisms. To date, whether their presence is associated with cognitive deterioration in the general population remains unclear. OBJECTIVE To determine whether microbleeds, and more specifically microbleed count and location, are associated with an increased risk for cognitive impairment and dementia in the general population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based study set in the general community, assessed the presence, number, and location of microbleeds at baseline (August 2005 to December 2011) on magnetic resonance imaging studies of the brain in 4841 participants 45 years or older. Participants underwent neuropsychological testing at 2 points a mean (SD) of 5.9 (0.6) years apart and were followed up for incident dementia throughout the study period until January 1, 2013. The association of microbleeds with cognitive decline and dementia was studied using multiple linear regression, linear mixed-effects modeling, and Cox proportional hazards. EXPOSURES Cerebral microbleed presence, location, and number. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Cognitive decline measured by a decrease in neuropsychological test battery scores (Mini-Mental State Examination, Letter Digit Substitution Task, Word Fluency Test, Stroop test, 15-word Verbal Learning Test, and Purdue Pegboard Test) and compound scores (eg, G factor, executive function, information processing speed, memory, motor speed) and dementia. RESULTS In total, 3257 participants (1758 women [54.7%]; mean [SD] age, 59.6 [7.8] years) underwent baseline and follow-up cognitive testing. Microbleed prevalence was 15.3% (median [interquartile range] count, 1 [1-88]). The presence of more than 4 microbleeds was associated with cognitive decline. Lobar (with or without cerebellar) microbleeds were associated with a decline in executive functions (mean difference in z score, -0.31; 95% CI, -0.51 to -0.11; P = .003), information processing (mean difference in z score, -0.44; 95% CI, -0.65 to -0.22; P < .001), and memory function (mean difference in z score, -0.34; 95% CI, -0.64 to -0.03; P = .03), whereas microbleeds in other brain regions were associated with a decline in information processing and motor speed (mean difference in z score, -0.61; 95% CI, -1.05 to -0.17; P = .007). After a mean (SD) follow-up of 4.8 (1.4) years, 72 participants developed dementia, of whom 53 had Alzheimer dementia. The presence of microbleeds was associated with an increased risk for dementia after adjustment for age, sex, and educational level (hazard ratio, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.25-3.24), including Alzheimer dementia (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.21-3.64). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In the general population, a high microbleed count was associated with an increased risk for cognitive deterioration and dementia. Microbleeds thus mark the presence of diffuse vascular and neurodegenerative brain damage.

Cerebral Perfusion and the Risk of Dementia: A Population-Based Study

Background: Cerebral hypoperfusion has previously been associated with mild cognitive impairment and dementia in various cross-sectional studies, but whether hypoperfusion precedes neurodegeneration is unknown. We prospectively determined the association of cerebral perfusion with subsequent cognitive decline and development of dementia. Methods: Between 2005 and 2012, we measured cerebral blood flow by 2-dimensional phase-contrast magnetic resonance imaging in participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study without dementia. We determined the association of cerebral perfusion (mL/100mL/min) with risk of dementia (until 2015) using a Cox model, adjusting for age, sex, demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and apolipoprotein E genotype. We repeated analyses for Alzheimer disease and accounting for stroke. We used linear regression to determine change in cognitive performance during 2 consecutive examination rounds in relation to perfusion. Finally, we investigated whether associations were modified by baseline severity of white matter hyperintensities. Results: Of 4759 participants (median age 61.3 years, 55.2% women) with a median follow-up of 6.9 years, 123 participants developed dementia (97 Alzheimer disease). Lower cerebral perfusion was associated with higher risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval per standard deviation decrease, 1.07–1.61), similar for Alzheimer disease only, and unaltered by accounting for stroke. Risk of dementia with hypoperfusion was higher with increasing severity of white matter hyperintensities (with severe white matter hyperintensities; hazard ratio, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–2.14). At cognitive reexamination after on average 5.7 years, lower baseline perfusion was associated with accelerated decline in cognition (global cognition: &bgr;=−0.029, P=0.003), which was similar after excluding those with incident dementia, and again most profound in individuals with higher volume of white matter hyperintensities (P value for interaction=0.019). Conclusions: Cerebral hypoperfusion is associated with accelerated cognitive decline and an increased risk of dementia in the general population.

10-year trajectories of depressive symptoms and risk of dementia: a population-based study

BACKGROUND Late-life depressive symptoms have been extensively studied for their relationship with incident dementia, but have been typically assessed at a single timepoint. Such an approach neglects the course of depression, which, given its remitting and relapsing nature, might provide further insights into the complex association of depression with dementia. We therefore repeatedly measured depressive symptoms in a population of adults over a decade to study the subsequent risk of dementia. METHODS Our study was embedded in the Rotterdam Study, a population-based study of adults aged 55 years or older in Rotterdam (Netherlands), ongoing since 1990. The cohort is monitored continuously for major events by data linkage between the study database and general practitioners. We examined a cohort of participants who were free from dementia, but had data for depressive symptoms from at least one examination round in 1993-95, 1997-99, or 2002-04. We assessed depressive symptoms with the validated Dutch version of the Center for Epidemiology Depression Scale (CES-D) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Depression. We used these data to identify 11-year trajectories of depressive symptoms by latent class trajectory modelling. We screened participants for dementia at each examination round and followed up participants for 10 years for incident dementia by latent trajectory from the third examination round to 2014. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) for dementia by assigned trajectory using two Cox proportional hazards models (model 1 adjusted for age and sex only, and model 2 adjusted additionally for APOEɛ4 carrier status, educational level, body-mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, cognitive score, use of antidepressants, and prevalent disease status at baseline). We repeated the analyses censoring for incident stroke, restricting to Alzheimers disease as an outcome, and accounting for mortality as a competing risk for dementia. FINDINGS From 1993-2004, we obtained data for depressive symptoms from at least one examination round for 3325 participants (median age: 74·88 years [IQR 70·62-80·06], 1995 [60%] women). We identified five trajectories of depressive symptoms in these 3325 individuals, characterised by maintained low CES-D scores (low; 2441 [73%]); moderately high starting scores but then remitting (decreasing; 369 [11%]); low starting scores, increasing, then remitting (remitting; 170 [5%]); low starting scores that steadily increased (increasing; 255 [8%]); and maintained high scores (high; 90 [3%]). During 26 330 person-years, 434 participants developed incident dementia. Only the trajectory with increasing depressive symptoms was associated with a higher risk of dementia compared with the low depressive symptom trajectory, using model 2 (HR 1·42, 95% CI 1·05-1·94; p=0·024). Additionally, only the increasing trajectory was associated with a higher risk of dementia compared with the low trajectory after censoring for incident stroke (1·58, 1·15-2·16; p=0·0041), restricting to Alzheimers disease as an outcome (1·44, 1·03-2·02; p=0·034), and accounting for mortality as a competing risk (1·45, 1·06-1·97; p=0·019). INTERPRETATION Risk of dementia differed with different courses of depression, which could not be captured by a single assessment of depressive symptoms. The higher risk of dementia only in the increasing trajectory suggests depression might be a prodrome of dementia. FUNDING Erasmus Medical Center; ZonMw; the Netherlands Ministry of Education Culture and Science; and the Netherlands Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports.

Orthostatic Hypotension and the Long-Term Risk of Dementia: A Population-Based Study

Background Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is a common cause of transient cerebral hypoperfusion in the population. Cerebral hypoperfusion is widely implicated in cognitive impairment, but whether OH contributes to cognitive decline and dementia is uncertain. We aimed to determine the association between OH and the risk of developing dementia in the general population. Methods and Findings Between 4 October 1989 and 17 June 1993, we assessed OH in non-demented, stroke-free participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study. OH was defined as a ≥20 mm Hg drop in systolic blood pressure (SBP) or ≥10 mm Hg drop in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) within 3 min from postural change. We furthermore calculated within participant variability in SBP related to postural change, expressed as coefficient of variation. Follow-up for dementia was conducted until 1 January 2014. We determined the risk of dementia in relation to OH and SBP variability, using a Cox regression model, adjusted for age; sex; smoking status; alcohol intake; SBP; DBP; cholesterol:high-density lipoprotein ratio; diabetes; body mass index; use of antihypertensive, lipid-lowering, or anticholinergic medication; and apolipoprotein E genotype. Finally, we explored whether associations varied according to compensatory increase in heart rate. Among 6,204 participants (mean ± standard deviation [SD] age 68.5 ± 8.6 y, 59.7% female) with a median follow-up of 15.3 y, 1,176 developed dementia, of whom 935 (79.5%) had Alzheimer disease and 95 (8.1%) had vascular dementia. OH was associated with an increased risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.15, 95% CI 1.00–1.34, p = 0.05), which was similar for Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia. Similarly, greater SBP variability with postural change was associated with an increased risk of dementia (aHR per SD increase 1.08, 95% CI 1.01–1.16, p = 0.02), which was similar when excluding those who fulfilled the formal criteria for OH (aHR 1.08, 95% CI 1.00–1.17, p = 0.06). The risk of dementia was particularly increased in those with OH who lacked a compensatory increase in heart rate (within lowest quartile of heart rate response: aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.04–1.85, p-interaction = 0.05). Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding despite rigorous adjustments, and potentially limited generalisability to populations not of European descent. Conclusions In this population predominantly of European descent, OH was associated with an increase in long-term risk of dementia.

Thyroid function and the risk of dementia: The Rotterdam Study

Objective: To study the role of thyroid function in dementia, cognitive function, and subclinical vascular brain disease with MRI. Methods: Analyses were performed within the Rotterdam Study (baseline 1997), a prospective, population-based cohort. We evaluated the association of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine with incident dementia using Cox models adjusted for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, and education. Absolute risks were calculated accounting for death as a competing risk factor. Associations of thyroid function with cognitive test scores and subclinical vascular brain disease (white matter lesions, lacunes, and microbleeds) were assessed with linear or logistic regression. Additionally, we stratified by sex and restricted analyses to normal thyroid function. Results: We included 9,446 participants with a mean age of 65 years. During follow-up (mean 8.0 years), 601 participants had developed dementia. Higher TSH was associated with lower dementia risk in both the full and normal ranges of thyroid function (hazard ratio [HR] 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83–0.98; and HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.64–0.91, respectively). This association was independent of cardiovascular risk factors. Dementia risk was higher in individuals with higher free thyroxine (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01–1.07). Absolute 10-year dementia risk decreased from 15% to 10% with higher TSH in older women. Higher TSH was associated with better global cognitive scores (p = 0.021). Thyroid function was not related to subclinical vascular brain disease as indicated by MRI. Conclusions: High and high-normal thyroid function is associated with increased dementia risk. Thyroid function is not related to vascular brain disease as assessed by MRI, suggesting a role for thyroid hormone in nonvascular pathways leading to dementia.

APOE-related risk of mild cognitive impairment and dementia for prevention trials: An analysis of four cohorts

Background With the onset of prevention trials for individuals at high risk for Alzheimer disease, there is increasing need for accurate risk prediction to inform study design and enrollment, but available risk estimates are limited. We developed risk estimates for the incidence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia among cognitively unimpaired individuals by APOE-e4 dose for the genetic disclosure process of the Alzheimer’s Prevention Initiative Generation Study, a prevention trial in cognitively unimpaired APOE-e4/e4 homozygote individuals. Methods and findings We included cognitively unimpaired individuals aged 60–75 y, consistent with Generation Study eligibility criteria, from the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center (NACC) (n = 5,073, 158 APOE-e4/e4), the Rotterdam Study (n = 6,399, 156 APOE-e4/e4), the Framingham Heart Study (n = 4,078, 67 APOE-e4/e4), and the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (SALSA) (n = 1,294, 11 APOE-e4/e4). We computed stratified cumulative incidence curves by age (60–64, 65–69, 70–75 y) and APOE-e4 dose, adjusting for the competing risk of mortality, and determined risk of MCI and/or dementia by genotype and baseline age. We also used subdistribution hazard regression to model relative hazard based on age, APOE genotype, sex, education, family history of dementia, vascular risk, subjective memory concerns, and baseline cognitive performance. The four cohorts varied considerably in age, education, ethnicity/race, and APOE-e4 allele frequency. Overall, cumulative incidence was uniformly higher in NACC than in the population-based cohorts. Among APOE-e4/e4 individuals, 5-y cumulative incidence was as follows: in the 60–64-y age stratum, it ranged from 0% to 5.88% in the three population-based cohorts versus 23.06% in NACC; in the 65–69-y age stratum, from 9.42% to 10.39% versus 34.62%; and in the 70–75-y age stratum, from 18.64% to 33.33% versus 38.34%. Five-year incidence of dementia was negligible except for APOE-e4/e4 individuals and those over 70 y. Lifetime incidence (to age 80–85 y) of MCI or dementia for the APOE-e4/e4 individuals in the long-term Framingham and Rotterdam cohorts was 34.69%–38.45% at age 60–64 y, 30.76%–40.26% at 65–69 y, and 33.3%–35.17% at 70–75 y. Confidence limits for these estimates are often wide, particularly for APOE-e4/e4 individuals and for the dementia outcome at 5 y. In regression models, APOE-e4 dose and age both consistently increased risk, as did lower education, subjective memory concerns, poorer baseline cognitive performance, and family history of dementia. We discuss several limitations of the study, including the small numbers of APOE-e4/e4 individuals, missing data and differential dropout, limited ethnic and racial diversity, and differences in definitions of exposure and outcome variables. Conclusions Estimates of the absolute risk of MCI or dementia, particularly over short time intervals, are sensitive to sampling and a variety of methodological factors. Nonetheless, such estimates were fairly consistent across the population-based cohorts, and lower than those from a convenience cohort and those estimated in prior studies—with implications for informed consent and design for clinical trials targeting high-risk individuals.

Cerebral Vasoreactivity, Apolipoprotein E, and the Risk of Dementia

Objective— Cerebral vasoreactivity (CVR) is a key factor in maintenance of continuous cerebral perfusion and a marker of (micro)vascular damage. We aimed to determine the longitudinal relation between CVR and the risk of dementia in the general population. Approach and Results— We determined CVR in nondemented participants who underwent transcranial Doppler with induced hypercapnia from 1997 to 1999, as part of the ongoing population-based Rotterdam Study. We used a Cox model to determine the risk of dementia in relation to CVR, adjusted for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, and carotid intima-media thickness. We furthermore determined decline on a cognitive test battery in relation to CVR, using linear mixed models. Among 1629 participants (mean±SD age 70.6±6.2 years, 46.2% female) with a mean follow-up of 11.5 years, 209 were diagnosed with dementia, of whom 171 had Alzheimer disease. Higher CVR at baseline was associated with lower risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval, per SD increase: 0.87, 0.75–1.00) and Alzheimer disease (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.84; 0.71–0.99). This association was more profound in APOE&egr;4 carriers than in noncarriers (adjusted hazard ratio for all dementia: 0.77, 0.60–0.98 versus 0.89, 0.73–1.07). Performance on cognitive tests at baseline was better with higher CVR (g-factor: P=0.02), but during 3 cognitive assessments over 11 years of follow-up, higher CVR at baseline was associated with less decline in test scores on the Stroop reading and interference tasks in APOE&egr;4 carriers only (P=0.01 and 0.02, respectively). Conclusions— Impaired CVR is associated with an increased risk of dementia in the general population.

Prestroke Vascular Pathology and the Risk of Recurrent Stroke and Poststroke Dementia

Background and Purpose— Improved short-term survival after stroke has necessitated quantifying risk and risk factors of long-term sequelae after stroke (ie, recurrent stroke and dementia). This risk may be influenced by exposure to cardiovascular risk factors before the initial stroke. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we determined the long-term risk of recurrent stroke and dementia, and the proportion of recurrent strokes and poststroke dementia cases that are attributable to prestroke cardiovascular risk factors (ie, the population attributable risk). Methods— We followed up 1237 patients with first-ever stroke and 4928 stroke-free participants, matched on age, sex, examination round, and stroke date (index date), for the occurrence of stroke or dementia. We calculated incidence rates in both groups and estimated the individual and combined population attributable risk of prestroke cardiovascular risk factors for both outcomes. Results— Beyond 1 year after stroke, patients retained a 3-fold increased risk of recurrent stroke and an almost 2-fold increased risk of dementia compared with people without stroke. In total, 39% (95% confidence interval, 18%–66%) of recurrent strokes and 10% (95% confidence interval, 0%–91%) of poststroke dementia cases were attributable to prestroke cardiovascular risk factors. These percentages were similar for first-ever stroke and dementia in the matched stroke-free population. Conclusions— Long-term risks of recurrent stroke and poststroke dementia remain high and are substantially influenced by prestroke risk factors, emphasizing the need for optimizing primary prevention.

Retinal Microvasculature Is Associated With Long-Term Survival in the General Adult Dutch Population

Retinal vascular diameters are associated with (sub)clinical cardiovascular disease and short-term cardiovascular mortality, but their association with long-term mortality is uncertain. We studied the association of retinal vascular diameters with cause-specific mortality in the general adult Dutch population during 25 years of follow-up. From 1990 to 1993, arteriolar and venular diameters were measured semiautomatically on digitized images in 5674 persons (mean age 68.0 years, 59% women) from the population-based Rotterdam study. Follow-up for mortality was complete till March 2015. Associations between vascular diameters and mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, and the fellow vessel diameter. During 85 770 person-years (mean±SD: 15.1±6.67), 3794 (66.8%) persons died, of whom 1034 due to cardiovascular causes. We found that narrower arterioles and wider venules were associated with higher risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] per SD decrease 1.04 [1.00–1.08] and increase 1.07 [1.03–1.12], respectively). For arterioles, these associations were strongest for cardiovascular mortality, whereas venules showed consistent associations for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality. Importantly, these associations remained unchanged after excluding the first 10 years of follow-up as immortal person-time. We found evidence for effect modification with stronger associations in persons <70 years (venules only) and smokers (P value for interaction<0.01). We replicated our findings in another independent cohort from the Rotterdam Study of 3106 persons with 19 880 person-years of follow-up and 144 deaths (hazard ratio for venules 1.22 [1.00–1.49]). Markers of retinal microvasculature are associated with long-term mortality in the general adult Dutch population.