Frank Messner

Flood damage, vulnerability and risk perception - challenges for flood damage research

The current state-of-the-art in flood damage analysis mainly focuses on the economic evaluation of tangible flood effects. It is contended in this discussion paper that important economic, social and ecological aspects of flood-related vulnerabilities are neglected. It is a challenge for flood research to develop a wider perspective for flood damage evaluation.

Multicriteria analysis under uncertainty with IANUS - method and empirical results

Integrated assessment of decisions under uncertainty for sustainable development (IANUS) is a method for aiding public decisionmaking that supports efforts towards sustainable development and has a wide range of applications. We introduce the main features of IANUS and illustrate the method by using the results of a case study in the Torgau region (eastern Germany) with conflicts over economic development and groundwater protection in the Elbe River basin. IANUS structures the decision process into four steps: scenario derivation, criteria selection, modelling, and evaluation. Its overall aim is to support the finding of policy solutions in a participatory setting and to extract the information needed for a sound, responsible decision in a clear, transparent manner. The method is designed for use in conflict situations where environmental and socioeconomic effects need to be considered and so an interdisciplinary approach is required. Special emphasis is placed on a broad perception and consideration of uncertainty. Three types of uncertainty are explicitly taken into account by IANUS: development uncertainty (uncertainty about the social, economic and other developments that affect the consequences of decision), model uncertainty (uncertainty associated with the prediction of the effects of decisions), and weight uncertainty (uncertainty about the appropriate weighting of the criteria). The backbone of IANUS is a multicriteria method with the ability to process uncertain information. In the case study the multicriteria method PROMETHEE is used. As PROMETHEE in its basic versions is not able to process uncertain information an extension of this method is developed here and described in detail. One methodological lesson to be learned from the experience of the case study reads that the design of the participation process must be planned and executed carefully to prevent important stakeholders backing out of the participatory evaluation process—as happened with the decisionmakers in the Torgau case study.

Material substitution and path dependence: empirical evidence on the substitution of copper for aluminum

Abstract Adopting an evolutionary perspective, this paper argues that path dependence plays a major role in material use and substitution such that it might delay or even prevent substitution despite the occurrence of significant relative price changes. After elucidating the importance of material substitution from an ecological-economic point of view and after explaining the meaning of path dependence from an evolutionary perspective, the copper–aluminum material substitution process is described for the main electrical conductor producing countries—the US, Germany, and Japan. This example makes clear that irrespective of attractive relative prices in favor of aluminum it could neither achieve a predominant market position nor is it possible to identify an explicit relation between relative price changes and relative material use in a qualitative analysis. Applying a Distributed Lag Model for data on copper and aluminum for electrical applications, the significance of relative prices and path dependence is examined for a 51-year time period for the US, Japan, and Germany. The results indicate that path dependence and relative prices—especially in the long run—are both important factors influencing the copper–aluminum substitution process. The major conclusions read that substitution processes cannot be predicted by relative price movements alone and that price instruments to encourage material substitution should not be overestimated. Instead, in the design of resource policies it should be considered that material substitution is an evolutionary and path-dependent process, which requires learning as well as time, capital, research, and experience.

Decision support for land use changes — A combination of methods for policy advising and planning

The cultural landscape is the result of the anthropogenic usage of the natural environment. According to Leser et al. (1984), “The cultural landscape ensues from human groups and societies permanently influencing the natural landscape and in particular using it for economic purposes and settlement as they exercise their basic functions of existence.” Whereas geofactors such as the climate, soil and topography are affected by mankind only indirectly and apparently very slowly (e.g. by means of climatic change or soil erosion), mankind shapes the landscape within much shorter spaces of time by means of land use. Consequently, land use neEds. to be planned responsibly. In particular, the various groups responsible must anticipate the various effects land use will have, and then only choose those forms which will have the ‘best impact’ from among the possible usage options. This article deals with methods which can be used for decision support for land uses changes.

Cost Recovery for Water Services According to the EU Water Framework Directive

The requirement of full cost recovery for water services including environmental and resource costs in accordance with the polluter pays principle in Art. 9 EU-Water Framework Directive is a unique provision in the history of the European environmental law. The wording of the provision is a compromise between the Councils and the Parliaments versions that mirrors different conceptual ideas on how to internalize environmental and resource costs. Art. 9 now contains a two-step concept for the achievement of the aim. The uniform implementation of the full cost-recovery calls for common accounting standards for the calculation of financial cost and a common methodology for the estimation of environmental and resource costs on the European level. In Germany, the requirements of the first step are partly fulfilled, but necessities of the second step are not being met at the moment.

Integration of Economic Evaluation into Water Management Simulation

In this chapter it is shown how economic evaluation algorithms of water use can be integrated into a long-term water management model such that surface-water availability and economic evaluation of various levels of water availability to different uses can be modeled simultaneously. This approach makes it possible to include essential features of economic analyses of water use into water resource modeling and thus improves the capability of such models to support decision making in water management. This is especially relevant for the implementation of the Water Framework Directive, which requires economic analyses to be included in the decision process about future water management strategies. The water management simulation model WBalMo is presented and the integration of economic-evaluation algorithms is demonstrated for the examples of surface-water use for fish farming and for filling open-cast mining pits in order to achieve acceptable water-quality levels in the emerging pit lakes. Results of applying this integrated evaluation approach are shown for different water management scenarios under conditions of global change in the East German Spree and Schwarze Elster river basins, where water scarcity is an urgent issue. Among the lessons which are drawn by the authors one lesson reads that integrating economic evaluation algorithms into a pre-existing model might bring enormous problems. Therefore, such model approaches should be developed together by water engineers and economists in an interdisciplinary endeavor right from the start.

Ecological Economics at the Watershed Scale: Comparing and Contrasting the United States and German Experiences and Approaches

Over the past three decades ecological economics has emerged as a coherent transdisciplinary approach to environmental problem solving. However, its evolution has been quite dissimilar in different parts of the world. In the US and UK, ecological economics evolved as a critique of and alternative to a comparatively strict application of economic theory to environmental decision making. In particular, the narrow application of benefit–cost analysis often reduced environmental decisions to one metric within a single value system (the market economy). The attractiveness of these traditional economic approaches to environmental policy has always been their “one size fits all” approach. No matter what the problem faced, the same methods were applied with a primary goal of cost effectiveness. But it has become increasingly clear that the ease of application of a strict economic approach is outweighed by its failure to capture the social and environmental contexts and realities of specific environmental problems. In contrast, ecological economics has been more problem-oriented, incorporating multiple stakeholder and disciplinary perspectives in specific contexts to shape the methods that define policy choices. Furthermore, ecological economic approaches involve multiple metrics, multiple points of view, and evolutionary and flexible policy recommendations.

Integrated Assessment of Water Policy Strategies in the Context of Global Change: The Integrative Methodological Approach and its Application in the Spree and Schwarze Elster River Basins

In this chapter, the integrative methodological approach (IMA) of the research project GLOWA Elbe is introduced, which represents a scientific methodology to support water management under uncertainty regarding future paths of global change. The approach paves the way for integration of research work of many disciplines, of different assessment methods, of various policy fields, and the involvement of relevant stakeholders and decision makers. IMA can be roughly described by four research elements (scenario derivation, indicator and criteria identification, model-based impact analysis, and final scenario assessment based on combined benefit–cost and multi-criteria analysis), which lay the basis for the IMA activities of the global change research sequence. Its practical application is demonstrated by a case study on the Spree and Schwarze Elster river basins. Specific results of Chapter 4 (on scenario derivation) and Chapter 11 (on integrating economic evaluation into water management simulation) in this volume are picked up in order to focus on the illustration of the integrated assessment results for this German case study.

Scenario Analysis in the Elbe River Basin as Part of Integrated Assessment

This chapter describes the scenario technique used for the integrative methodological approach (IMA) of the German global change project GLOWA Elbe. It is outlined how regional scenarios are systematically derived to analyze water use conflicts and their resolution in the context of global change for the German Elbe river basin. Through the combination of frameworks of development and policy strategies a consistent set of developmental scenarios can be generated that makes it possible to examine the regional impact of policy strategies under conditions of different future global change development paths. The scenario analysis of the framework of development starts on the global level with qualitative IPCC storylines, translates them to the regional level, and quantifies their regional effects by means of modeling and statistical estimation methods. The policy strategies are derived in close cooperation with regional stakeholders.