Frank Raes

Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security

Why Wait? Tropospheric ozone can be dangerous to human health, can be harmful to vegetation, and is a major contributor to climate warming. Black carbon also has significant negative effects on health and air quality and causes warming of the atmosphere. Shindell et al. (p. 183) present results of an analysis of emissions, atmospheric processes, and impacts for each of these pollutants. Seven measures were identified that, if rapidly implemented, would significantly reduce global warming over the next 50 years, with the potential to prevent millions of deaths worldwide from outdoor air pollution. Furthermore, some crop yields could be improved by decreasing agricultural damage. Most of the measures thus appear to have economic benefits well above the cost of their implementation. Reducing anthropogenic emissions of methane and black carbon would have multiple climate and health benefits. Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at

Formation and cycling of aerosols in the global troposphere

700 to

The 2nd Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2): general overview and main results

5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than

Making integration of adaptation and mitigation work: mainstreaming into sustainable development policies?

250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide–reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.

Chemical mass closure and assessment of the origin of the submicron aerosol in the marine boundary layer and the free troposphere at Tenerife during ACE-2

Aerosols are formed, evolve, and are eventually removed within the general circulation of the atmosphere. The characteristic time of many of the microphysical aerosol processes is days up to several weeks, hence longer than the residence time of the aerosol within a typical atmospheric compartment (e.g. the marine boundary layer, the free troposphere, etc.). Hence, to understand aerosol properties, one cannot confine the discussion to such compartments, but one needs to view aerosol microphysical phenomena within the context of atmospheric dynamics that connects those compartments. This paper attempts to present an integrated microphysical and dynamical picture of the global tropospheric aerosol system. It does so by reviewing the microphysical processes and those elements of the general circulation that determine the size distribution and chemical composition of the aerosol, and by implementing both types of processes in a diagnostic model, in a 3-D global Chemical Transport Model, and in a General Circulation Model. Initial results are presented regarding the formation, transformation, and cycling of aerosols within the global troposphere.

Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls

This overview summarizes the objectives of the Aerosol Characterization Experiments (ACEs) of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) project and the research strategy implemented in the second of this series of experiments (ACE-2). ACE-2 took place from 16 June to 24 July 1997, over the sub-tropical North-East Atlantic. It provided an opportunity to study the properties, processes and effects of contrasting aerosol types in this region, including background marine and anthropogenic pollution aerosol in the marine boundary layer (MBL), and background aerosol and mineral dust in the overlaying free troposphere (FT). The major achievements of ACE-2 include:(a) identification of entrainment, in-cloud scavenging and coagulation as the major processes transforming a pollution aerosol transported within the MBL; (b) the first documentation of the indirect radiative effect of aerosols at the scale of a cloud ensemble in continental pollution outflow; (c) observation of a wide range in the contribution of organic material to the sub-micron aerosol mass, with possibly the highest contribution in the free tropospheric; (d) improved understanding of the role of condensing HCl, HNO3 and NH3 as a growth mechanism of sub-micron aerosols in polluted air masses advecting over the ocean. A close connection was observed between meteorological factors (such as horizontal and vertical wind speed, boundary layer development, entrainment, humidity fields) and aerosol and cloud characteristics. In the ACE-2 region, these meteorological factors, rather than aerosol microphysics and chemistry, often dominated the shaping of the aerosol size distribution and/or their effect on radiation and clouds. The ACE-2 data presently analyzed provide a qualitative, and in many cases a quantitative understanding of the complex gas/aerosol/cloud system in the sub-tropical marine environment. This will guide future model development. Some major data sets are still to be analyzed.

Hygroscopic properties of aerosol formed by oxidation of limonene, α-pinene, and β-pinene

Can an integrated approach to mitigation and adaptation offer opportunities for a more effective response to climate change than the current strategies? The nature of the linkages depends on the dimensions: economic, institutional or environmental, and on the scale. Differences are pervasive: adaptation and mitigation usually have different temporal and spatial scales and are mostly relevant for different economic sectors, so that costs and benefits are distributed differently. The article concludes that generally the global, regional and—in most countries—national potential of synergetic options to mitigate and adapt to climate change is relatively low, and both strategies should be considered as complementary. However, a few notable exceptions are identified in the land and water management and urban planning sectors, in particular in countries or locations where these sectors provide important adaptation and mitigation opportunities. What is the theoretically most efficient and least expensive mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies may not be a very urgent policy question. Instead, five pragmatic ways of broadening climate policy are suggested, while taking into account the linkages between adaptation and mitigation: (1) avoiding trade-offs—when designing policies for mitigation or adaptation, (2) identifying synergies, (3) enhancing response capacity, (4) developing institutional links between adaptation and mitigation—e.g. in national institutions and in international negotiations, and (5) mainstreaming adaptation and mitigation considerations into broader sustainable development policies.

Observations of aerosols in the free troposphere and marine boundary layer of the subtropical Northeast Atlantic: Discussion of processes determining their size distribution

The organic, inorganic, mineral content and mass concentration of the submicron aerosol were measured in June−July 1997 on Tenerife in the marine boundary layer (MBL) and the free troposphere (FT). Aerosol size distributions were measured simultaneously at the same sites. The submicron aerosol mass concentrations derived from the chemical composition and calculated from the number size distributions agreed within the experimental uncertainties both in the MBL (±47%) and the FT (±75%). However, the analytical uncertainties in the concentration of organic compounds (OC) for the average sample collected in the MBL (-97, +77%) and the FT (±74%) were high. The average contribution of aerosol various components to the submicron aerosol mass were calculated for different air masses. The absolute uncertainties in these contributions were calculated by adding random uncertainties quadratically and possibly systematic errors in a conservative way. In the unperturbed MBL, the aerosol average composition (± the absolute uncertainty in the contribution) was 37 (-3, +9)% for non-sea-salt SO42-+ NH4+, 21 (-2, +10)% for sea-salt, and 20 (-7, +11)% OC (N=19). In the unperturbed FT, OC and SO42- accounted for 43 (±20)% and 32 (-5, +3)% of the submicron aerosol mass, respectively (N=15). Considering these aerosol compositions, we suggest that the source for the FT aerosol could be the transport of continental aerosol through precipitating convective clouds. A simple budget calculation shows, that in background conditions, the MBL and FT aerosol compositions are consistent with the hypothesis that the MBL aerosol is formed by the dilution of continental aerosol by FT air, modified by deposition and condensation of species of oceanic origin. Dramatic continental aerosol outbreaks were observed in both the MBL and the FT. The aerosol outbreaks in the MBL were due to transport of polluted air masses from Europe. They were characterized mainly by increases in SO42-+ NH4+, making up 75 (-5, +19)% of the submicron aerosol mass. The aerosol outbreaks in the FT were due to advection of desert dust, probably mixed with pollution aerosol.

A modeling study of global mixed aerosol fields

Background: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20–40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration–response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23–34% and 7–17% and avoid 0.6–4.4 and 0.04–0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration–response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

Simulations of condensation and cloud condensation nuclei from biogenic SO2 in the remote marine boundary layer

The hygroscopic properties of aerosol formed by oxidation of three monoterpenes, limonene, α-pinene, and β-pinene, were measured using a tandem differential mobility analyzer (TDMA). The experiments were performed in the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE) in Valencia, Spain. The experiments included ozonolysis and photooxidation with and without ammonium sulfate seed aerosol. Pure organic particles, formed by oxidation of the terpenes in the absence of the seed aerosol, proved to be slightly hygroscopic. The hygroscopic growth factor (G) was close to 1.10 at relative humidity 84% ± 1%, which is often observed as the G of the less hygroscopic mode of atmospheric aerosol in field measurements. In the experiments with ammonium sulfate seed aerosol G decreased from approximately 1.5 before the start of terpene oxidation to approximately 1.1 as the oxidation products condensed on the particles. G was not proportional to the organic layer thickness but decreased with increasing organic volume fraction. Our analysis shows that in the internally mixed particles, ammonium sulfate and the organic products take up water independently of one another.