Frank van Oort

On the Specification of the Gravity Model of Trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-Inflated Estimation

Conventional studies of bilateral trade patterns specify a log-normal gravity equation for empirical estimation. However, the log-normal gravity equation suffers from three problems: the bias created by the logarithmic transformation, the failure of the homoscedasticity assumption, and the way zero values are treated. These problems normally result in biased and inefficient estimates. Recently, the Poisson specification of the trade gravity model has received attention as an alternative to the log-normality assumption (Santos Silva and Tenreyro, 2006). However, the standard Poisson model is vulnerable for problems of overdispersion and excess zero flows. To overcome these problems, this paper considers modified Poisson fixed-effects estimations (negative binomial, zero-inflated). Extending the empirical model put forward by Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006), we show how these techniques may provide viable alternatives to both the log-normal and standard Poisson specification of the gravity model of trade.

Urban growth and innovation : spatially bounded externalities in the Netherlands

Agglomeration in economic and geographical theories Heterogeneity in localized economic growth Exploratory spatial data analysis Location-industry employment dynamics Sectoral employment dynamics Innovation intensity Summary and conclusions. Appendices: data on employment dynamics data on innovation intensity.

Spatial Impacts of Agglomeration Externalities

This article examines the extent to which agglomeration economies in one location affect employment growth and establishment births, using data from the Dutch province of South-Holland. The data are of particular interest because they represent a census, rather than a sample, of all establishments and the location of establishments can be pinpointed to within 416 (postal) zip code areas averaging less than 6 km2 in size. Results suggest that agglomeration economies positively affect employment growth and the location of new establishments, but with the possible exception of manufacturing, this effect dies out quickly with distance. Thus, the main finding is that for many industries, agglomerative forces may well operate at a geographic scale that is smaller than a city.

Functional Polycentrism and Urban Network Development in the Greater South East, United Kingdom: Evidence from Commuting Patterns, 1981–2001

De Goei B., Burger M. J., Van Oort F. G. and Kitson M. Functional polycentrism and urban network development in the Greater South East, United Kingdom: evidence from commuting patterns, 1981–2001, Regional Studies. In contemporary literature on changing urban systems, it is often argued that the traditional central place conceptualization is outdated and should be replaced by a network view that emphasizes the increasing criss-crossing pattern of interdependencies between spatial units. This paper tests how urban networks develop by looking at commuting patterns in the Greater South East, United Kingdom, for the period 1981–2001. Although the empirical results indicate that the Greater South East cannot be currently characterized as a polycentric urban region or an integrated urban network, there is some evidence for urban network development at the local, intra-urban, level, and a decentralization of the system at the regional, inter-urban, level. De Goei B., Burger M. J., Van Oort F. G. et Kitson M. Le polycentrisme fonctionnel et le développement des réseaux urbains dans l’agglomération du sud-est du R-U: des preuves provenant de la structure des migrations quotidiennes entre 1981 et 2001, Regional Studies. Dans la documentation récente sur l’évolution des systèmes urbains, on affirme souvent que la notion classique de la place centrale est démodée et que l’on devrait la remplacer par une notion de réseaux qui souligne la croissance des interdépendances entrecroisées des zones géographiques. Cet article cherche à tester l’évolution des réseaux urbains tout en examinant la structure des migrations quotidiennes urbaines dans l’agglomération du sud-est du R-U entre 1981 et 2001. Bien que les résultats empiriques laissent voir que l’agglomération du sud-est du R-U ne se caractérise actuellement ni comme une région urbaine polycentrique, ni comme un réseau urbain intégré, il y a des preuves en faveur du développement des réseaux urbains sur le plan local intraurbain et d’une décentralisation du système au niveau régional interurbain. Royaume-Uni Agglomération du sud-est Réseaux urbains Migrations quotidiennes Modèle de gravité De Goei B., Burger M. J., Van Oort F. G. und Kitson M. Funktionaler Polyzentrismus und Entwicklung urbaner Netzwerke im Großraum des Südostens von Großbritannien: Belege aus Pendlerströmen, 1981–2001, Regional Studies. In der modernen Literatur über Veränderungen in den urbanen Systemen wird oftmals die These aufgestellt, dass die traditionelle Konzeptualisierung eines zentralen Ortes veraltet ist und durch eine Netzwerkperspektive ersetzt werden sollte, mit der die zunehmend kreuz und quer verlaufenden Wechselwirkungen zwischen räumlichen Einheiten betont wird. In diesem Beitrag überprüfen wir die Entwicklung urbaner Netzwerke am Beispiel der Pendlerströme im Großraum des Südostens von Großbritannien zwischen 1981 und 2001. Aus den empirischen Ergebnissen geht hervor, dass sich der Südosten Großbritanniens derzeit nicht als polyzentrische urbane Region oder integriertes urbanes Netzwerk charakterisieren lässt. Dennoch gibt es einige Anzeichen für die Entwicklung eines urbanen Netzwerks auf lokaler intra-urbaner Ebene sowie für eine Dezentralisierung des Systems auf regionaler intra-urbaner Ebene. Großbritannien Großraum Südost Urbane Netzwerke Pendlerverkehr Schwerkraftmodell De Goei B., Burger M. J., Van Oort F. G. y Kitson M. Policentrismo funcional y desarrollo de redes urbanas en el sureste de Inglaterra: evidencias de modelos de desplazamientos, 1981–2001, Regional Studies. En la literatura contemporánea sobre cambios en los sistemas urbanos se suele argumentar que la conceptualización tradicional de un lugar céntrico está desfasada y debería reemplazarse por una visión de redes que haga hincapié en el creciente modelo entrecruzado de interdependencias entre las unidades espaciales. En este artículo comprobamos cómo se desarrollan las redes urbanas al observar los modelos de desplazamientos en la región sureste del Reino Unido durante el periodo 1981–2001. Aunque los resultados empíricos indican que la región sureste del Reino Unido no se puede caracterizar actualmente como una región urbana policéntrica o una red urbana integrada, hay evidencias de un desarrollo de redes urbanas a nivel local e intraurbano y una descentralización del sistema a nivel regional e interurbano. Reino Unido Zona sureste Redes urbanas Desplazamientos al trabajo Modelo de gravedad

E-Shopping in the Netherlands: Does Geography Matter?

Why consumers shop via the Internet, is a frequently asked question. As yet, the impact of spatial variables on e-shopping has received little attention. In this paper we report our investigation of the spatial distribution of Internet users and online buyers in the Netherlands for the time period 1996–2001 and the impact of spatial variables (residential environment and shop accessibility) on e-shopping. Two hypotheses are tested empirically. The first is that e-shopping is a predominantly urban phenomenon, because new technology usually starts in centres of innovation (innovation-diffusion hypothesis). The second is that people are more likely to adopt e-shopping when their accessibility to shops is relatively low (efficiency hypothesis). Our findings indicate that Internet use and online buying are still largely urban phenomena in the Netherlands, but that there is a trend towards diffusion to the weakly urbanised and rural areas. Not only the innovation diffusion hypothesis, but also the efficiency hypothesis is confirmed by our findings. People living in a (very) strongly urbanised area have a higher likelihood of buying online, but people with a low shop accessibility buy more often online. The analysis also shows that the support for the two hypotheses depends on the type of product. Airline tickets are still mainly bought in very strongly urbanised areas, whereas compact discs, videos, DVDs, and clothing are bought relatively more often in weakly urbanised areas. In conclusion, geography seems to matter for e-shopping.

The Knowledge Economy and Urban Economic Growth

ABSTRACT In this paper we contribute to the longstanding discussion on the role of knowledge to economic growth in a spatial context. We observe that in adopting the European policy strategy towards a competitive knowledge economy, the Netherlands is—as most European countries—mainly oriented towards industrial, technological factors. The policy focus is on R&D specialized regions in their spatial economic strategies. We place the knowledge economy in a broader perspective. Based on the knowledge economy literature, we value complementary indicators: the successful introduction of new products and services to the market (“innovation”) and indicators of skills of employees (“knowledge workers”). Using econometric analysis, we relate the three factors “R&D”, “innovation” and “knowledge workers” to regional economic growth. We conclude that the factors “innovation” and “knowledge workers” are more profoundly related to urban employment and productivity growth than the R&D-factor. Preferably, urban research and policy-makers should therefore take all three knowledge factors into account when determining economic potentials of cities.

Variety and regional economic growth in the Netherlands

In economic theory, one can distinguish between variety as a source of regional knowledge spillovers, called Jacobs externalities, and variety as a portfolio protecting a region from external shocks. We argue that Jacobs externalities are best measured by related variety (within sectors), while the portfolio argument is better captured by unrelated variety (between sectors). We introduce a methodology based on entropy measures to compute related variety and unrelated variety. Using data at the COROP level for the period 1996-2002, we find that Jacobs externalities enhance employment growth, while unrelated variety dampens unemployment growth. Productivity growth, by contrast, can be explained by traditional determinants including investments and R&D expenditures. Implications for regional policy in The Netherlands follow.

Residential amenities of knowledge workers and the location of ICT-FIrms in the Netherlands

*Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research (RPB), PO Box 30314, 2500GH, The Hague, The Netherlands. E-mail: oort@rpb.nl, & Urban and Regional Research Centre Utrecht (URU), Utrecht University, PO Box 80115, 3508TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands. E-mail: f.vanoort@geog.uu.nl **Urban and Regional Research Centre Utrecht (URU), Utrecht University, PO Box 80115, 3508TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands. E-mail: a.weterings@geog.uu.nl ***KPMG Economic Consulting, Antareslaan 14, 2132JE Hoofddorp, The Netherlands. E-mail: Verlinde.Heleen@kpmg.nl

Local Businesses as Attractors or Preventers of Neighborhood Disorder

While businesses may attract potential offenders and thus be conducive to disorder, the number of employees could offset this by exercising social control on offenders. This study uses data from different sources to test this expectation across 278 Dutch neighborhoods in the four largest cities of the Netherlands, using multivariate multilevel analysis to disentangle individual perception differences of disorder and neighborhood effects. Attention is paid to traditional explanations of disorder (i.e., poverty, residential mobility, and ethnic heterogeneity). Results show a positive relationship between business presence and neighborhood disorder. We do not find consistent results of the number of employees (i.e., bigger businesses are not always better or worse). Our research demonstrates that the presence of neighborhood businesses could rival the effects of social disorganization theory.

Regional Competitiveness and Smart Specialization in Europe

Regions economically differ from each other – they compete in different products and geographical spaces, exhibit different strengths and weaknesses, and provide different possibilities for growth and development. What fosters growth in one region may hamper it in another. This highly original book presents an accessible methodology for identifying competitors and their particular circumstances in Europe, discusses regional competitiveness from a conceptual perspective and explores both past and future regional development policies in Europe.