Frank W. Geels

Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study

This paper addresses the question of how technological transitions (TT) come about? Are there particular patterns and mechanisms in transition processes? TT are defined as major, long-term technological changes in the way societal functions are fulfilled. TT do not only involve changes in technology, but also changes in user practices, regulation, industrial networks, infrastructure, and symbolic meaning or culture. This paper practices ‘appreciative theory’ [R.R. Nelson, S.G. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change, Bellknap Press, Cambridge, MA, 1982] and brings together insights from evolutionary economics and technology studies. This results in a multi-level perspective on TT where two views of the evolution are combined: (i) evolution as a process of variation, selection and retention, (ii) evolution as a process of unfolding and reconfiguration. The perspective is empirically illustrated with a qualitative longitudinal case-study, the transition from sailing ships to steamships, 1780–1900. Three particular mechanisms in TT are described: niche-cumulation, technological add-on and hybridisation, riding along with market growth.

Strategic niche management and sustainable innovation journeys: theory, findings, research agenda, and policy

This article discusses empirical findings and conceptual elaborations of the last 10 years in strategic niche management research (SNM). The SNM approach suggests that sustainable innovation journeys can be facilitated by creating technological niches, i.e. protected spaces that allow the experimentation with the co-evolution of technology, user practices, and regulatory structures. The assumption was that if such niches were constructed appropriately, they would act as building blocks for broader societal changes towards sustainable development. The article shows how concepts and ideas have evolved over time and new complexities were introduced. Research focused on the role of various niche-internal processes such as learning, networking, visioning and the relationship between local projects and global rule sets that guide actor behaviour. The empirical findings showed that the analysis of these niche-internal dimensions needed to be complemented with attention to niche external processes. In this respect, the multi-level perspective proved useful for contextualising SNM. This contextualisation led to modifications in claims about the dynamics of sustainable innovation journeys. Niches are to be perceived as crucial for bringing about regime shifts, but they cannot do this on their own. Linkages with ongoing external processes are also important. Although substantial insights have been gained, the SNM approach is still an unfinished research programme. We identify various promising research directions, as well as policy implications.

The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: a multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860-1930)

Abstract This article investigates transitions at the level of societal functions (e.g. transport, communication, housing). Societal functions are fulfilled by socio-technical systems, which consist of a cluster of aligned elements, e.g. artefacts, knowledge, user practices and markets, regulation, cultural meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks. To understand how transitions from one socio-technical system to another come about, the article describes a conceptual multi-level perspective. The perspective is illustrated with a historical case study: the transition from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles in the USA (1860–1930). The case study shows that technological substitution approaches to this transition are too simple, because they neglect the electric tram and bicycle, which acted as important stepping stones. The case study also corrects another mistake, namely that the gasoline car won by chance from steam and electric automobiles. It will be shown that particular niches played a crucial role in this competition, as well as the wider socio-technical context. The case study deviates on three points from the multi-level perspective. These deviations are used to conceptualize a particular transition pathway, called ‘de-alignment and re-alignment’.

Regime Resistance against Low-Carbon Transitions: Introducing Politics and Power into the Multi-Level Perspective

While most studies of low-carbon transitions focus on green niche-innovations, this paper shifts attention to the resistance by incumbent regime actors to fundamental change. Drawing on insights from political economy, the paper introduces politics and power into the multi-level perspective. Instrumental, discursive, material and institutional forms of power and resistance are distinguished and illustrated with examples from the UK electricity system. The paper concludes that the resistance and resilience of coal, gas and nuclear production regimes currently negates the benefits from increasing renewables deployment. It further suggests that policymakers and many transition-scholars have too high hopes that ‘green’ innovation will be sufficient to bring about low-carbon transitions. Future agendas in research and policy should therefore pay much more attention to the destabilization and decline of existing fossil fuel regimes.

System Innovation and the Transition to Sustainability

This book considers two main questions: how do system innovations or transitions come about and how can they be influenced by different actors, in particular by governments. The authors identify the theories which can be used to conceptualise the dynamics of system innovations and discuss the weaknesses in these theories. They also look at the lessons which can be learned from historical examples of transitions, and highlight the instruments and policy tools which can be used to stimulate future system innovations towards sustainability. The expert contributors address these questions using insights from a variety of different disciplines including innovation studies, evolutionary economics, the sociology of technology, environmental analysis and governance studies. The book concludes with an extensive summary of the results and practical suggestions for future research.

Non-linearity and expectations in niche-development trajectories: Ups and downs in Dutch biogas development (1973-2003)

Abstract Non-linearity and changes in the direction of technological trajectories, are related to changes in cognitive rules and expectations that guide technical search and development activities. To explain such changes, the article uses the literature on niche development, which highlights interactions between learning processes, network building and expectations. A long-term case study on Dutch biogas development illustrates how these interactions explain non-linearity, but the case study also shows the importance of external regime dynamics. It is concluded that non-linearity and changes in niche expectations are related to both internal learning processes and external developments.

Failed technology futures: Pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey

Images of the future, with hindsight, turn out to be either right or wrong. In this article, past images of the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on traffic and transportation are investigated. Informed by the field of technology studies, seven key features are formulated that point at pitfalls and neglected aspects in many future expectations on technological developments and their societal impact. It is also argued that the evolution from broad sweeping promises to more down-to-earth assessments is inherent in technological developments, because expectations and diffuse scenarios also play a performative role in technological developments.

Multi-niche analysis of dynamics and policies in Dutch renewable energy innovation journeys (1970-2006): hype-cycles, closed networks and technology-focused learning

This article analyses long-term innovation policies and development trajectories of four renewable energy technologies: wind energy, biomass, fuel cells and hydrogen, and photovoltaics. These trajectories and policies are characterised by many costly failures, setbacks, hype-disappointment cycles, tensions, and struggles. Although setbacks and non-linearities are a normal part of innovation journeys, a comparative analysis of four cases shows the recurrence of particular problems. Using Strategic Niche Management as analytical approach, we conclude that major problems exist with regard to learning processes (too much technology-push, focused on R&D), social networks (supply side oriented, narrow, closed) and expectations (hype-disappointment cycles, limited competence to assess promises).

Local and global dynamics in technological development: a socio-cognitive perspective on knowledge flows and lessons from reinforced concrete

Although knowledge flows are a popular concept, the underlying dynamics are not well understood. This article develops a perspective that conceptualises the social and cognitive activities that make knowledge flows possible. Dynamics involve interactions between local and global levels, and dedicated aggregation activities by intermediary actors. An idealtypical four-phased pattern is developed to understand the creation of global knowledge. The socio-cognitive perspective is illustrated with a historical case study, the emergence of reinforced concrete (1850–1940). The concluding section formulates policy implications for nurturing the emergence of radically new technologies. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

Transformations of large technical systems : a multi-level analysis of the Dutch highway system (1950-2000)

The transformation of existing systems is an underexposed topic in large technical systems (LTS) research. Most LTS research has focused on the emergence and stabilization of systems, ending with momentum. But how is momentum overcome, and how do transformations come about? This article presents a multilevel perspective to understand such transformations, using insights from STS and evolutionary economics. The multilevel perspective is illustrated with a longitudinal case study of the Dutch highway system (1950 to 2000).