Franz J. Király

Prospective Evaluation of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation From Matched Related and Matched Unrelated Donors in Younger Adults With High-Risk Acute Myeloid Leukemia: German-Austrian Trial AMLHD98A

PURPOSE To assess the impact of allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) from matched related donors (MRDs) and matched unrelated donors (MUDs) on outcome in high-risk patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) within a prospective multicenter treatment trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS Between 1998 and 2004, 844 patients (median age, 48 years; range, 16 to 62 years) with AML were enrolled onto protocol AMLHD98A that included a risk-adapted treatment strategy. High risk was defined by the presence of unfavorable cytogenetics and/or by no response to induction therapy. RESULTS Two hundred sixty-seven (32%) of 844 patients were assigned to the high-risk group. Of these 267 patients, 51 patients (19%) achieved complete remission but had adverse cytogenetics, and 216 patients (81%) had no response to induction therapy. Allogeneic HSCT was actually performed in 162 (61%) of 267 high-risk patients, after a median time of 147 days after diagnosis. Graft sources were as follows: MRD (n = 62), MUD (n = 89), haploidentical donor (n = 10), and cord blood (n = 1). The 5-year overall survival rates were 6.5% (95% CI, 3.1% to 13.6%) for patients (n = 105) not proceeding to HSCT and 25.1% (95% CI, 19.1% to 33.0%; from date of transplantation) for patients (n = 162) receiving HSCT. Multivariable analysis including allogeneic HSCT as a time-dependent covariable revealed that allogeneic HSCT significantly improved outcome; there was no difference in outcome between allogeneic HSCT from MRD and MUD. CONCLUSION Allogeneic HSCT in younger adults with high-risk AML has a significant beneficial impact on outcome, and allogeneic HSCT from MRD and MUD yields similar results.

The algebraic combinatorial approach for low-rank matrix completion

We present a novel algebraic combinatorial view on low-rank matrix completion based on studying relations between a few entries with tools from algebraic geometry and matroid theory. The intrinsic locality of the approach allows for the treatment of single entries in a closed theoretical and practical framework. More specifically, apart from introducing an algebraic combinatorial theory of low-rank matrix completion, we present probability-one algorithms to decide whether a particular entry of the matrix can be completed. We also describe methods to complete that entry from a few others, and to estimate the error which is incurred by any method completing that entry. Furthermore, we show how known results on matrix completion and their sampling assumptions can be related to our new perspective and interpreted in terms of a completability phase transition.

Algebraic Matroids with Graph Symmetry

This paper studies the properties of two kinds of matroids: (a) algebraic matroids and (b) finite and infinite matroids whose ground set have some canonical symmetry, for example row and column symmetry and transposition symmetry. For (a) algebraic matroids, we expose cryptomorphisms making them accessible to techniques from commutative algebra. This allows us to introduce for each circuit in an algebraic matroid an invariant called circuit polynomial, generalizing the minimal poly- nomial in classical Galois theory, and studying the matroid structure with multivariate methods. For (b) matroids with symmetries we introduce combinatorial invariants capturing structural properties of the rank function and its limit behavior, and obtain proofs which are purely combinatorial and do not assume algebraicity of the matroid; these imply and generalize known results in some specific cases where the matroid is also algebraic. These results are motivated by, and readily applicable to framework rigidity, low-rank matrix completion and determinantal varieties, which lie in the intersection of (a) and (b) where additional results can be derived. We study the corresponding matroids and their associated invariants, and for selected cases, we characterize the matroidal structure and the circuit polynomials completely.

Algebraic geometric comparison of probability distributions

We propose a novel algebraic algorithmic framework for dealing with probability distributions represented by their cumulants such as the mean and covariance matrix. As an example, we consider the unsupervised learning problem of finding the subspace on which several probability distributions agree. Instead of minimizing an objective function involving the estimated cumulants, we show that by treating the cumulants as elements of the polynomial ring we can directly solve the problem, at a lower computational cost and with higher accuracy. Moreover, the algebraic viewpoint on probability distributions allows us to invoke the theory of algebraic geometry, which we demonstrate in a compact proof for an identifiability criterion.

Problematic internet use (PIU): Associations with the impulsive-compulsive spectrum. An application of machine learning in psychiatry.

Problematic internet use is common, functionally impairing, and in need of further study. Its relationship with obsessive-compulsive and impulsive disorders is unclear. Our objective was to evaluate whether problematic internet use can be predicted from recognised forms of impulsive and compulsive traits and symptomatology. We recruited volunteers aged 18 and older using media advertisements at two sites (Chicago USA, and Stellenbosch, South Africa) to complete an extensive online survey. State-of-the-art out-of-sample evaluation of machine learning predictive models was used, which included Logistic Regression, Random Forests and Naïve Bayes. Problematic internet use was identified using the Internet Addiction Test (IAT). 2006 complete cases were analysed, of whom 181 (9.0%) had moderate/severe problematic internet use. Using Logistic Regression and Naïve Bayes we produced a classification prediction with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.83 (SD 0.03) whereas using a Random Forests algorithm the prediction ROC-AUC was 0.84 (SD 0.03) [all three models superior to baseline models p < 0.0001]. The models showed robust transfer between the study sites in all validation sets [p < 0.0001]. Prediction of problematic internet use was possible using specific measures of impulsivity and compulsivity in a population of volunteers. Moreover, this study offers proof-of-concept in support of using machine learning in psychiatry to demonstrate replicability of results across geographically and culturally distinct settings.

Modeling outcomes of soccer matches

We compare various extensions of the Bradley–Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley–Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an appropriately penalized version of it, while the posterior densities of the parameters of the hierarchical Poisson log-linear model are approximated using integrated nested Laplace approximations. The prediction performance of the various modeling approaches is assessed using a novel, context-specific framework for temporal validation that is found to deliver accurate estimates of the test error. The direct modeling of outcomes via the various Bradley–Terry extensions and the modeling of match scores using the hierarchical Poisson log-linear model demonstrate similar behavior in terms of predictive performance.

Prediction and Quantification of Individual Athletic Performance of Runners.

We present a novel, quantitative view on the human athletic performance of individual runners. We obtain a predictor for running performance, a parsimonious model and a training state summary consisting of three numbers by application of modern validation techniques and recent advances in machine learning to the thepowerof10 database of British runners’ performances (164,746 individuals, 1,417,432 performances). Our predictor achieves an average prediction error (out-of-sample) of e.g. 3.6 min on elite Marathon performances and 0.3 seconds on 100 metres performances, and a lower error than the state-of-the-art in performance prediction (30% improvement, RMSE) over a range of distances. We are also the first to report on a systematic comparison of predictors for running performance. Our model has three parameters per runner, and three components which are the same for all runners. The first component of the model corresponds to a power law with exponent dependent on the runner which achieves a better goodness-of-fit than known power laws in the study of running. Many documented phenomena in quantitative sports science, such as the form of scoring tables, the success of existing prediction methods including Riegel’s formula, the Purdy points scheme, the power law for world records performances and the broken power law for world record speeds may be explained on the basis of our findings in a unified way. We provide strong evidence that the three parameters per runner are related to physiological and behavioural parameters, such as training state, event specialization and age, which allows us to derive novel physiological hypotheses relating to athletic performance. We conjecture on this basis that our findings will be vital in exercise physiology, race planning, the study of aging and training regime design.

Fano schemes of generic intersections and machine learning

We investigate Fano schemes of conditionally generic intersections, i.e. of hypersurfaces in projective space chosen generically up to additional conditions. Via a correspondence between generic properties of algebraic varieties and events in probability spaces that occur with probability one, we use the obtained results on Fano schemes to solve a problem in machine learning.

Approximate rank-detecting factorization of low-rank tensors

We present an algorithm, AROFAC2, which detects the (CP-)rank of a degree 3 tensor and calculates its factorization into rank-one components. We provide generative conditions for the algorithm to work and demonstrate on both synthetic and real world data that AROFAC2 is a potentially outperforming alternative to the gold standard PARAFAC over which it has the advantages that it can intrinsically detect the true rank, avoids spurious components, and is stable with respect to outliers and non-Gaussian noise.

Correction to: Modeling outcomes of soccer matches

The Publisher regrets an error in the presentation of Table 5.