Franz Rubel

World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated

The most frequently used climate classification map is that o f Wladimir Koppen, presented in its latest version 1961 by Rudolf Geiger. A huge number of climate studies and subsequent publications adopted this or a former release of the Koppen-Geiger map. While the climate classification concept has been widely applied to a broad range of topics in climate and climate change research as well as in physical geography, hydrology, agriculture, biology and educational aspects, a well-documented update of the world climate classification map is still missing. Based on recent data sets from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) at the German Weather Service, we present here a new digital Koppen-Geiger world map on climate classification, valid for the second half of the 20 th century. Zusammenfassung Die am haufigsten verwendete Klimaklassifikationskarte ist jene von Wladimir Koppen, die in der letzten Auflage von Rudolf Geiger aus dem Jahr 1961 vorliegt. Seither bildeten viele Klimabucher und Fachartikel diese oder eine fruhere Ausgabe der Koppen-Geiger Karte ab. Obwohl das Schema der Klimaklassifikation in vielen Forschungsgebieten wie Klima und Klimaanderung aber auch physikalische Geographie, Hydrologie, Landwirtschaftsforschung, Biologie und Ausbildung zum Einsatz kommt, fehlt bis heute eine gut dokumentierte Aktualisierung der Koppen-Geiger Klimakarte. Basierend auf neuesten Datensatzen des Climatic Research Unit (CRU) der Universitat von East Anglia und des Weltzentrums fur Niederschlagsklimatologie (WZN) am Deutschen Wetterdienst prasentieren wir hier eine neue digitale Koppen-Geiger Weltkarte fur die zweite Halfte des 20. Jahrhunderts.

The Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX): A European Contribution to the Investigation of the Energy and Water Cycle over a Large Drainage Basin

The Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX) is one of the five continental-scale experiments of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). More than 50 research groups from 14 European countries are participating in this project to measure and model the energy and water cycle over the large drainage basin of the Baltic Sea in northern Europe. BALTEX aims to provide a better understanding of the processes of the climate system and to improve and to validate the water cycle in regional numerical models for weather forecasting and climate studies. A major effort is undertaken to couple interactively the atmosphere with the vegetated continental surfaces and the Baltic Sea including its sea ice. The intensive observational and modeling phase BRIDGE, which is a contribution to the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period of GEWEX, will provide enhanced datasets for the period October 1999-February 2002 to validate numerical models and satellite products. Major achievements have been obtained in an improved understanding of related exchange processes. For the first time an interactive atmosphere-ocean-land surface model for the Baltic Sea was tested. This paper reports on major activities and some results.

Correction of Synoptic Precipitation Observations due to Systematic Measuring Errors with Special Regard to Precipitation Phases

Abstract A recently developed method for event-based daily bias-correction of synoptic precipitation observations regarding systematic measuring errors was transfered at the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) from regional to global applications. Using the reported present weather, an analysis based on more than 600 000 global synoptic data from 16 winter months was done, which made it possible to relate air temperature and dew point temperature to the probable distribution of liquid, solid and mixed precipitation phase. Based on this information, synoptic precipitation observations can be corrected regarding systematic measuring errors on a daily resolution, which makes the estimation of extreme precipitation events more reliable.

Geographical distribution of Dermacentor marginatus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe.

The goal of this paper is to present up-to-date maps depicting the geographical distribution of Dermacentor species in Europe based on georeferenced sampling sites. Therefore, a dataset was compiled, resulting in 1286 D. marginatus (Sulzer, 1776) and 1209 D. reticulatus (Fabricius, 1794) locations. Special emphasis is given to the region of the European Alps depicting a presumable climate barrier of the mountains and to overlaps in the distribution of both species as well as on the situation in eastern European countries. For the latter newly described Dermacentor findings comprise 59 locations in Romania and 62 locations in Ukraine. The geographical distributions of both species in Europe range from Portugal to Ukraine (and continue to the east of Kazakhstan). Although it is well known that D. marginatus is adapted to a warmer and drier climate at more southern latitudes and D. reticulatus to a moderately moist climate at more northern latitudes, the distribution limits of both species were not well known. Here, the northern and southern distribution limits for both species in Europe, as determined from the georeferenced database, were specified for D. marginatus by the belt of 33-51° N latitude and for D. reticulatus by the belt of 41-57° N latitude. Thus, overlapping species distributions were found between 41° N and 51° N.

Explaining Usutu virus dynamics in Austria: Model development and calibration

Usutu virus (USUV), a flavivirus of the Japanese encephalitis virus complex, was for the first time detected outside Africa in the region around Vienna (Austria) in 2001 by Weissenböck et al. [Weissenböck, H., Kolodziejek, J., Url, A., Lussy, H., Rebel-Bauder, B., Nowotny, N., 2002. Emergence of Usutu virus, an African mosquito-borne flavivirus of the Japanese encephalitis virus group, central Europe. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 8, 652-656]. USUV is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) circulating between arthropod vectors (mainly mosquitoes of the Culex pipiens complex) and avian amplification hosts. Infections of mammalian hosts or humans, as observed for the related West Nile virus (WNV), are rare. However, USUV infection leads to a high mortality in birds, especially blackbirds (Turdus merula), and has similar dynamics with the WNV in North America, which, amongst others, caused mortality in American robins (Turdus migratorius). We hypothesized that the transmission of USUV is determined by an interaction of developing proportion of the avian hosts immune and climatic factors affecting the mosquito population. This mechanism is implemented into the present model that simulates the seasonal cycles of mosquito and bird populations as well as USUV cross-infections. Observed monthly climate data are specified for the temperature-dependent development rates of the mosquitoes as well as the temperature-dependent extrinsic-incubation period. Our model reproduced the observed number of dead birds in Austria between 2001 and 2005, including the peaks in the relevant years. The high number of USUV cases in 2003 seems to be a response to the early beginning of the extraordinary hot summer in that year. The predictions indicate that >70% of the bird population acquired immunity, but also that the percentage would drop rapidly within only a couple of years. We estimated annually averaged basic reproduction numbers between R (0)=0.54 (2004) and 1.35 (2003). Finally, extrapolation from our model suggests that only 0.2% of the blackbirds killed by USUV were detected by the Austrian USUV monitoring program [Chvala, S., Bakonyi, T., Bukovsky, C., Meister, T., Brugger, K., Rubel, F., Nowotny, N., Weissenböck, H., 2007. Monitoring of Usutu virus activity and spread by using dead bird surveillance in Austria, 2003-2005. Vet. Microbiol. 122, 237-245]. These results suggest that the model presented is able to quantitatively describe the process of USUV dynamics.

Bias correction of global daily rain gauge measurements

Abstract Up to the present global precipitation climatologies based on rain gauges have been corrected for systematic measurement errors using monthly correction factors only. We present results from a statistical correction model for daily measurements. It was developed in the framework of BALTEX and adapted for the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) to correct global daily rain gauge data routinely transmitted via GTS. We focus on regions of the GEWEX continental scale experiments BALTEX (Europe), GAME (Asia), LBA (South-America) and GCIP (North- America). The correction model was applied to 2 years of data (1996, 1997) and compared with the correction factors of the widely used precipitation climatology of Legates (1987). In the BALTEX region our averaged daily correction factor is about equal to the monthly correction given by Legates during the summer months, while Legates estimated higher corrections for snow (up to 50 %). In the regions of GAME and LBA the corrections given by Legates are also generally higher (50 – 100 %) than our corrections. This is opposite to the corrections calculated for GCIP rain gauges, which are not significantly different.

Simulation of climate-change scenarios to explain Usutu-virus dynamics in Austria.

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases in mid-latitudes, so far mainly observed in the tropics, considerably increase under the current situation of climate change. A recent example is the Usutu virus (USUV) outbreak in Austria. USUV is closely related to the West Nile virus in the U.S. and caused mass mortalities mainly of blackbirds (Turdus merula). The USUV flavivirus persists in a natural transmission cycle between vectors (mosquitoes) and host reservoirs (birds) and leads - once endemic in a population - to periodic outbreaks. In an epidemic model to explain the USUV dynamics in Austria 2001-2005, USUV dynamics were mainly determined by an interaction of bird immunity and environmental temperature. To investigate future scenarios, we entered temperature predictions from five global climate models into the USUV model and also considered four different climate-warming scenarios defined by the I ntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC (20 different model-scenario combinations). We downscaled the 20 time series of predicted temperatures (through the year 2100) to represent the region around Vienna. Our simulations predict that USUV will persist in the host population after the epidemic peak observed in 2003. USUV-specific annual blackbird-mortality time series predict that the outbreak frequency increases successively from the beginning to the end of the century. Simulations of worst-case scenarios result in an endemic equilibrium with a decline of the blackbird population of about 24%. Additionally we calculated the annually averaged basic reproduction number for the period 1901-2100. The latter depict that undetected major outbreaks before 2000 were unlikely, whereas it is likely that the USUV becomes endemic after 2040.

Bluetongue Disease Risk Assessment Based on Observed and Projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. Vector Densities

Bluetongue is an arboviral disease of ruminants causing significant economic losses. Our risk assessment is based on the epidemiological key parameter, the basic reproduction number. It is defined as the number of secondary cases caused by one primary case in a fully susceptible host population, in which values greater than one indicate the possibility, i.e., the risk, for a major disease outbreak. In the course of the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) outbreak in Europe in 2006 we developed such a risk assessment for the University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria. Basic reproduction numbers were calculated using a well-known formula for vector-borne diseases considering the population densities of hosts (cattle and small ruminants) and vectors (biting midges of the Culicoides obsoletus spp.) as well as temperature dependent rates. The latter comprise the biting and mortality rate of midges as well as the reciprocal of the extrinsic incubation period. Most important, but generally unknown, is the spatio-temporal distribution of the vector density. Therefore, we established a continuously operating daily monitoring to quantify the seasonal cycle of the vector population by a statistical model. We used cross-correlation maps and Poisson regression to describe vector densities by environmental temperature and precipitation. Our results comprise time series of observed and simulated Culicoides obsoletus spp. counts as well as basic reproduction numbers for the period 2009–2011. For a spatio-temporal risk assessment we projected our results from the location of Vienna to the entire region of Austria. We compiled both daily maps of vector densities and the basic reproduction numbers, respectively. Basic reproduction numbers above one were generally found between June and August except in the mountainous regions of the Alps. The highest values coincide with the locations of confirmed BTV cases.

Characterizing the species composition of European Culicoides vectors by means of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification

BackgroundBiting midges of the genus Culicoides spp. (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors for the Bluetongue virus, the African horse sickness virus and the recently emerged Schmallenberg virus. Here, species of the C. obsoletus complex, the C. pulicaris complex and C. imicola were considered. The objective was to compile a map of these Culicoides species and their relation to the popular climate classification defined by Wladimir Köppen and Rudolf Geiger to provide a quick view on the species composition in Europe.FindingsMajor parts of Central and Northern Europe are covered by a warm temperate fully humid climate, characterized by warm summers. For this so-called Cfb climate fractions of 89% C. obsoletus complex and 11% C. pulicaris complex were estimated. Further investigations comprise the continental climate Dfb (76% C. obsoletus, 24% C. pulicaris), the warm temperate climate with hot summers Cfa (35% C. obsoletus, 65% C. pulicaris), the warm temperate dry climate, characterized by warm summers Csb (38% C. obsoletus, 51% C. pulicaris, 11% C. imicola) and the warm temperate dry climate with hot summers Csa of the Mediterranean area (11% C. obsoletus, 12% C. pulicaris, 77% C. imicola).ConclusionsA highly significant association coefficient of RV = 0.64 (Cramer’s V) confirms the correlation between Culicoides spp. and climate zones. Moreover, climate projections for the end of the century give an impression on expected changes in the European Culicoides spp. composition.

Simulation of the seasonal cycles of bird, equine and human West Nile virus cases

The West Nile virus (WNV) is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) circulating in a natural transmission cycle between mosquitoes (enzootic vectors) and birds (amplifying hosts). Additionally, mainly horses and humans (dead-end hosts) may be infected by blood-feeding mosquitoes (bridge vectors). We developed an epidemic model for the simulation of the WNV dynamics of birds, horses and humans in the U.S., which we apply to the Minneapolis metropolitan area (Minnesota). The SEIR-type model comprises a total of 19 compartments, that are 4 compartments for mosquitoes and 5 compartments or health states for each of the 3 host species. It is the first WNV model that simulates the seasonal cycle by explicitly considering the environmental temperature. The latter determines model parameters responsible for the population dynamics of the mosquitoes and the extrinsic incubation period. Once initialized, our WNV model runs for the entire period 2002-2009, exclusively forced by environmental temperature. Simulated incidences are mainly determined by host and vector population dynamics, virus transmission and herd immunity, respectively. We adjusted our WNV model to fit monthly totals of reported bird, equine and human cases in the Minneapolis metropolitan area. From this process we estimated that the proportion of actually WNV-induced dead birds reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is about 0.8%, whereas 7.3% of equine and 10.7% of human cases were reported. This is consistent with referenced expert opinions whereby about 10% of equine and human cases are symptomatic (the other 90% of asymptomatic cases are usually not reported). Despite the restricted completeness of surveillance data and field observations, all major peaks in the observed time series were caught by the simulations. Correlation coefficients between observed and simulated time series were R=0.75 for dead birds, R=0.96 for symptomatic equine cases and R=0.86 for human neuroinvasive cases, respectively.