Fred S. Zufryden

New Film Website Promotion and Box Office Performance

ABSTRACT The use of website promotion for new films is now commonplace. However, there has been no information to date about the degree to which website activity relates to the box office performance of a film. To this end, this paper describes a parsimonious model approach that relates website activity, and other relevant explanatory variables, to a films box office a performance. The results suggest that website activity is a significant variable in relation to a films box office performance. Thus, the study suggests that the monitoring of website activity may provide a useful measure to evaluate and predict the performance of new films.

A Study of Consumer Switching Behavior Across Internet Portal Web Sites

This paper describes an empirical study of the dynamics of consumer switching behavior across major Internet portal Web sites, based on an analysis of a commercial on-line panel database. The study highlights the managerial implications of the model in the context of e-commerce. The results provide managerial insights regarding the strength of a portal Web site relative to its competitors in terms of its ability to attract and retain visitors as well as the relative vulnerabilities of competing portals from which visitors are drawn. The study also examines the effect of causal factors (e.g., visitor gender, past Internet usage, log-on time, time spent on previous sites) on portal Web site switching behavior and loyalty. The study has implications for identifying consumer segments more likely to be attracted to a Web site and for increasing the number of visitors to the site.

Internet advertising: The medium is the difference

The underlying full‐duplex networked organization of the Internet transforms the traditional one‐way relationship between advertisers and consumers that is inherent in standard advertising. Internet content providers take on both the roles of conduits and interaction enablers in a two‐way interaction with prospective consumers.

An examination of consumer heterogeneity in a stochastic model of consumer purchase dynamics with explanatory variables

Abstract A stochastic model of brand choice and purchase incidence is proposed that relates marketing variables, including advertising exposures, to brand performance measures such as market share, penetration and depth of repeat purchase dynamics over time. The approach considers various aspects of consumer heterogeneity including individual differences in brand loyalty levels, advertising exposures, and purchase rates for a population of consumers. A major focus of this study is on the evaluation of the impact of consumer heterogeneity in alternative models on the basis of single-source scanner panel data for an actual market situation. In particular, we demonstrate the critical importance of considering heterogeneity over a consumer population as a means of enhancing descriptive and predictive model fit as well as for allowing the analysis of advertising media schedules.

An Integrated Virtual Store-Based Approach for Price Determination Before Product Launch

An integrated model approach is developed to determine market prices for product options that a company can offer consumers before launching a product. The multiple research streams drawn on include pricing, new product launch, on-line experimentation, conjoint analysis, and optimization. The approach incorporates a consumer-response model that considers the cross-price effects of the options as well as the impact of competing product options and prices. Based on the response model, a profit-optimization model framework is applied in an actual market situation involving an on-line video game to be introduced in a foreign market. A description of the stages of the application, from empirical design and data collection to decision-making and postlaunch model validation, demonstrates the usefulness of the approach.

The wnbd: A stochastic model approach for relating explanatory variables to consumer purchase dynamics

Abstract A tractable stochastic model approach, based on logit brand choice and purchase incidence components, is proposed to describe the distribution of brand purchases as a function of explanatory variables. The resulting composite aggregate model, a Weighted Negative Binomial Distribution ( wnbd ), is applied to an actual case situation and its results are found to compare favorably with those of a more complex model from a previously published study.

Modelling purchase patterns on the basis of incomplete and biased consumer purchase diary and UPC panel data

Abstract This study proposes a new approach for the analysis and prediction of product class and brand purchase patterns. The approach is designed to specifically consider data consisting of incomplete and biased purchase histories that may result from diary or UPC panel samples. Alternative approaches are developed that are illustrated on the basis of actual panel diary data and statistical estimation procedures to describe and predict actual product class and brand purchase patterns. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the potentially substantial errors that may result from the analysis of panel data in practice.

Predicting Trial, Repeat, and Sales Response from Alternative Media Plans

ABSTRACT This paper is one of 18 selected by the Editorial Review Board of The Journal of Advertising Research to be a ‘classic’ - an article that has withstood the test of time. First published in 1982, Zufreyden used AdTels dual cable CATV system and a diary panel to measure and predict purchasing behaviour for two media schedules (a normal campaign, and one with 40% heavier advertising weight). He maintains that the methodology controls for contaminants - so advertising effect can be isolated.

Measuring the Reach and Frequency Elasticities of Advertising Media

This study describes a general approach for measuring the elasticities and cross-elasticities of reach and frequency of advertising media schedules. The approach involves the approximation of a complex model, which combines logit choice behavior and stochastic model components, by means of a surface response methodology method. Using single-source UPC scanner data for an actual market situation, the paper highlights the steps for implementing the approach within a market environment that is characterized by asymmetric competitive advertising media effects.