Frédéric Castruccio

Assessing the Climate Impacts of the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Using the GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR CESM1 Global Coupled Models

AbstractThe climate impacts of the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) are investigated using the GFDL CM2.1 and the NCAR CESM1 coupled climate models. The model North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are restored to fixed anomalies corresponding to an estimate of the internally driven component of the observed AMV. Both models show that during boreal summer the AMV alters the Walker circulation and generates precipitation anomalies over the whole tropical belt. A warm phase of the AMV yields reduced precipitation over the western United States, drier conditions over the Mediterranean basin, and wetter conditions over northern Europe. During boreal winter, the AMV modulates by a factor of about 2 the frequency of occurrence of El Nino and La Nina events. This response is associated with anomalies over the Pacific that project onto the interdecadal Pacific oscillation pattern (i.e., Pacific decadal oscillation–like anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and a symmetrical pattern in the Southern...

Interannual variability of the surface summertime eastward jet in the South China Sea

The summertime eastward jet (SEJ) located around 12°N, 110°E–113°E, as the offshore extension of the Vietnam coastal current, is an important feature of the South China Sea (SCS) surface circulation in boreal summer. Analysis of satellite-derived sea level and sea surface wind data during 1992–2012 reveals pronounced interannual variations in its surface strength (SSEJ) and latitudinal position (YSEJ). In most of these years, the JAS (July, August, and September)-mean SSEJ fluctuates between 0.17 and 0.55 m s−1, while YSEJ shifts between 10.7°N and 14.3°N. These variations of the SEJ are predominantly contributed from the geostrophic current component that is linked to a meridional dipole pattern of sea level variations. This sea level dipole pattern is primarily induced by local wind changes within the SCS associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Enhanced (weakened) southwest monsoon at the developing (decaying) stage of an El Nino event causes a stronger (weaker) SEJ located south (north) of its mean position. Remote wind forcing from the tropical Pacific can also affect the sea level in the SCS via energy transmission through the Philippine archipelago, but its effect on the SEJ is small. The impact of the oceanic internal variability, such as eddy-current interaction, is assessed using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Such impact can lead to considerable year-to-year changes of sea level and the SEJ, equivalent to ∼20% of the observed variation. This implies the complexity and prediction difficulty of the upper ocean circulation in this region.

Impact of Ocean Mean Dynamic Topography on Satellite Data Assimilation

The response of an eddy-permitting ocean model to changes imposed by the use of different mean dynamic topographies (MDT) is analyzed in a multivariate assimilation context, allowing the evaluation of this impact, not only on the surface circulation, but also on the interior ocean representation. The assimilation scheme is a reduced-order sequential Kalman filter (SEEK). In a first set of experiments, high resolution sea surface temperature, along-track sea surface height and sea surface salinity from climatology are assimilated into a 1/3° resolution North and Tropical Atlantic version of the HYCOM model. In a second experiment, in situ profile data are assimilated in addition to the surface measurements. The first set of experiments illustrates that important differences in the representation of the horizontal model circulation pattern are related to differences in the MDT used. The objective of assimilation is to improve the representation of the 3D ocean state. However, the imperfect representation of the mean dynamic topography appears to be an important limiting factor with regard to the degree of realism obtained in the simulated flow. Vertical temperature and salinity profiles are key observations to drive a general circulation ocean model toward a more realistic state. The second set of experiments shows that assimilating them in addition to sea surface measurements is a far from trivial exercise. A specific difficulty is due to inconsistencies between the dynamic topography diagnosed from in situ observations and that diagnosed from sea surface height. These two fields obtained from different data sources do not contain exactly the same information. In order to overcome this difficulty, a strategy is proposed and validated.

Larval connectivity across temperature gradients, and its potential effect on heat tolerance in coral populations.

Coral reefs are increasingly exposed to elevated temperatures that can cause coral bleaching and high levels of mortality of corals and associated organisms. The temperature threshold for coral bleaching depends on the acclimation and adaptation of corals to the local maximum temperature regime. However, because of larval dispersal, coral populations can receive larvae from corals that are adapted to very different temperature regimes. We combine an offline particle tracking routine with output from a high-resolution physical oceanographic model to investigate whether connectivity of coral larvae between reefs of different thermal regimes could alter the thermal stress threshold of corals. Our results suggest that larval transport between reefs of widely varying temperatures is likely in the Coral Triangle and that accounting for this connectivity may be important in bleaching predictions. This has important implications in conservation planning, because connectivity may allow some reefs to have an inherited heat tolerance that is higher or lower than predicted based on local conditions alone.

Improved Turbulent Air–Sea Flux Bulk Parameters for Controlling the Response of the Ocean Mixed Layer: A Sequential Data Assimilation Approach

Abstract Bulk formulations parameterizing turbulent air–sea fluxes remain among the main sources of error in present-day ocean models. The objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of estimating the turbulent bulk exchange coefficients using sequential data assimilation. It is expected that existing ocean assimilation systems can use this method to improve the air–sea fluxes and produce more realistic forecasts of the thermohaline characteristics of the mixed layer. The method involves augmenting the control vector of the assimilation scheme using the model parameters that are to be controlled. The focus of this research is on estimating two bulk coefficients that drive the sensible heat flux, the latent heat flux, and the evaporation flux of a global ocean model, by assimilating temperature and salinity profiles using horizontal and temporal samplings similar to those to be provided by the Argo float system. The results of twin experiments show that the method is able to correctly estimat...

Modeled connectivity of Acropora millepora populations from reefs of the Spratly Islands and the greater South China Sea

The Spratly Island archipelago is a remote network of coral reefs and islands in the South China Sea that is a likely source of coral larvae to the greater region, but about which little is known. Using a particle-tracking model driven by oceanographic data from the Coral Triangle region, we simulated both spring and fall spawning events of Acropora millepora, a common coral species, over a 46-yr period (1960–2005). Simulated population biology of A. millepora included the acquisition and loss of competency, settlement over appropriate benthic habitat, and mortality based on experimental data. The simulations aimed to provide insights into the connectivity of reefs within the Spratly Islands, the settlement of larvae on reefs of the greater South China Sea, and the potential dispersal range of reef organisms from the Spratly Islands. Results suggest that (1) the Spratly Islands may be a significant source of A. millepora larvae for the Palawan reefs (Philippines) and some of the most isolated reefs of the South China Sea; and (2) the relatively isolated western Spratly Islands have limited source reefs supplying them with larvae and fewer of their larvae successfully settling on other reefs. Examination of particle dispersal without biology (settlement and mortality) suggests that larval connectivity is possible throughout the South China Sea and into the Coral Triangle region. Strong differences in the spring versus fall larval connectivity and dispersal highlight the need for a greater understanding of spawning dynamics of the region. This study confirms that the Spratly Islands are likely an important source of larvae for the South China Sea and Coral Triangle region.

Future changes in coastal upwelling ecosystems with global warming: The case of the California Current System

Coastal upwelling ecosystems are among the most productive ecosystems in the world, meaning that their response to climate change is of critical importance. Our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems is largely limited to the open ocean, mainly because coastal upwelling is poorly reproduced by current earth system models. Here, a high-resolution model is used to examine the response of nutrients and plankton dynamics to future climate change in the California Current System (CCS). The results show increased upwelling intensity associated with stronger alongshore winds in the coastal region, and enhanced upper-ocean stratification in both the CCS and open ocean. Warming of the open ocean forces isotherms downwards, where they make contact with water masses with higher nutrient concentrations, thereby enhancing the nutrient flux to the deep source waters of the CCS. Increased winds and eddy activity further facilitate upward nutrient transport to the euphotic zone. However, the plankton community exhibits a complex and nonlinear response to increased nutrient input, as the food web dynamics tend to interact differently. This analysis highlights the difficulty in understanding how the marine ecosystem responds to a future warming climate, given to range of relevant processes operating at different scales.

Fishermen Follow Fine-Scale Physical Ocean Features for Finance

The seascapes on which many millions of people make their living and secure food have complex and dynamic spatial features -- the figurative hills and valleys -- that influence where and how people work at sea. Here, we quantify the physical mosaic of the surface ocean by identifying Lagrangian Coherent Structures for a whole seascape -- the U.S. California Current Large Marine Ecosystem -- and assess their impact on the spatial distribution of fishing. We observe that there is a mixed response: some fisheries track these physical features, and others avoid them. These spatial behaviors map to economic impacts, in particular we find that tuna fishermen can expect to make three times more revenue per trip if fishing occurs on strong Lagrangian Coherent Structures. However, we find no relationship for salmon and pink shrimp fishing trips. These results highlight a connection between the biophysical state of the oceans, the spatial patterns of human activity, and ultimately the economic welfare of coastal communities.

Fisheries bycatch risk to marine megafauna is intensified in Lagrangian coherent structures

Significance Marine capture fisheries provide a valuable source of protein and are economically important in coastal communities. However, fisheries sustainability is impacted by incidental capture of nontarget species (bycatch), which remains a major global threat to marine megafauna such as sharks, sea turtles, seals, cetaceans, and seabirds. Understanding where and when bycatch events take place can guide fisheries sustainability solutions. Here, we model how dynamic structures in the ocean such as fronts and eddies influence fisheries effort, catch, and bycatch likelihood. We find that bycatch of a diverse range of species is more likely in attracting Lagrangian coherent structures, in which water masses meet and aggregate prey, predators, and fishers into hotspots of risk. Incidental catch of nontarget species (bycatch) is a major barrier to ecological and economic sustainability in marine capture fisheries. Key to mitigating bycatch is an understanding of the habitat requirements of target and nontarget species and the influence of heterogeneity and variability in the dynamic marine environment. While patterns of overlap among marine capture fisheries and habitats of a taxonomically diverse range of marine vertebrates have been reported, a mechanistic understanding of the real-time physical drivers of bycatch events is lacking. Moving from describing patterns toward understanding processes, we apply a Lagrangian analysis to a high-resolution ocean model output to elucidate the fundamental mechanisms that drive fisheries interactions. We find that the likelihood of marine megafauna bycatch is intensified in attracting Lagrangian coherent structures associated with submesoscale and mesoscale filaments, fronts, and eddies. These results highlight how the real-time tracking of dynamic structures in the oceans can support fisheries sustainability and advance ecosystem-based management.

Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on North American Summer Climate and Heat Waves

AbstractThe impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on summertime North American climate are investigated using three coupled global climate models (CGCMs) in which North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to observed AMV anomalies. Large ensemble simulations are performed to estimate how AMV can modulate the occurrence of extreme weather such as heat waves. It is shown that, in response to an AMV warming, all models simulate a precipitation deficit and a warming over northern Mexico and the southern United States that lead to an increased number of heat wave days by about 30% compared to an AMV cooling. The physical mechanisms associated with these impacts are discussed. The positive tropical Atlantic SST anomalies associated with the warm AMV drive a Matsuno–Gill-like atmospheric response that favors subsidence over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This leads to a warming of the whole tropospheric column, and to a decrease in relative humidity, cloud cove...