Frédéric Volpi

Explaining (and re-explaining) political change in the Middle East during the Arab Spring: trajectories of democratization and of authoritarianism in the Maghreb

After the 2011 Arab Spring, a pressing concern is to understand why some authoritarian regimes remain in power while others fall when confronted with similar difficulties. Earlier representations of the success of authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa generated common misperceptions concerning politically effective behaviour in the region. These views, shared by local autocrats and international actors alike, led them to propose ad hoc policy reorientations in response to a contagion of popular uprisings. In their turn, these policy responses directly contributed to the failure of authoritarianism and the production of democratic revolutions in several countries of the region. Such revolutionary options, although structured by the (lack of) opportunities for contestation present in each polity, are not predicable events as they depend on elite mis-assessments of the situation to be effective (as in Tunisia, Libya). Reciprocally, when reform pathways are made available by authoritarian regimes, contestation can be channelled into non-revolutionary political action (as in Morocco, Algeria).

Algeria's pseudo-democratic politics: Lessons for democratization in the Middle East

This account proposes an analytical framework to understand recent developments in Algerian politics, such as the 2004 presidential election, in the context of the rise of pseudo-democratic regimes throughout the Muslim world. It suggests that through the tactical adaptation of the powers-that-be to the demands of electoral democracy, the substantive value and the legitimacy of democracy as a concept and a practical system of governance is being eroded. The key tactics employed by the regime to entrench this pseudo-democratic model include the informal pre-selection of the candidates, the stage-management of the election campaign and the televised media, and poll fixing and electoral demobilization. This domestic evolution of pseudo-democratic politics occurs in a propitious international context where the combination of economic (oil) and security (terrorism) concerns favours trends towards short-term domestic stability at the expense of long-term democratic transformation.

Regional Community Building and the Transformation of International Relations: The Case of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership

This article examines whether there exists a European approach to international relations that makes a difference to the global prospects for political co-operation between western liberal democracies and other regional and cultural groupings. More precisely, it investigates whether, and how, the European Union through its Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) can create a new type of regional community that increases security and reduces politico-cultural tensions around the Mediterranean. In particular, the article addresses the issue of how far such a ‘partnership’ constitutes a new approach to community building that shuns old realist approaches to international relations but creates instead in the Mediterranean region a rationale for co-operation grounded in the social constructivist notion of a ‘convergence of civilizations’.

Islamism and the state after the Arab uprisings: Between people power and state power

This paper examines the trajectories of different Islamist trends in the light of the Arab uprisings. It proposes a distinction between statist and non-statist Islamism to help understand the multiplicity of interactions between Islamists and the state, particularly after 2011. It is outlined how statist Islamists (Islamist parties principally) can contribute to the stabilization and democratization of the state when their interactions with other social and political actors facilitate consensus building in national politics. By contrast when these interactions are conflictual, it has a detrimental impact on both the statist Islamists, and the possibility of democratic politics at the national level. Non statist-Islamists (from quietist salafi to armed jihadi) who prioritize the religious community over national politics are directly impacted by the interactions between statist Islamists and the state, and generally tend to benefit from the failure to build a consensus over democratic national politics. Far more than nationally-grounded statist Islamists, non-statist Islamists shape and are shaped by the regional dynamics on the Arab uprisings and the international and transnational relations between the different countries and conflict areas of the Middle East. The Arab uprisings and their aftermath reshaped pre-existing national and international dynamics of confrontation and collaboration between Islamists and the state, and between statist and non-statists Islamists, for better (Tunisia) and for worse (Egypt).

Framing Civility in the Middle East: alternative perspectives on the state and civil society

Abstract The notion of civility, although commonly invoked in narratives about the Middle East and the Muslim world, fails nonetheless to be adequately framed and investigated in analyses of political change in the region. This contribution confronts this problem by considering, first, how far traditional ‘Western’ notions of civility are relevant to analyses of civility in polities where liberal normativity is not for the most part shared by those individuals and communities involved in everyday civic interactions. It then distinguishes the role that civility is commonly said to play in civil society and, via civil society inthe state-sanctioned framework for a ‘good’ society, from the relevance of civility for society itself. From this perspective the contribution emphasises the importance ofintersubjectivity in the communication of practices of civility, and de-emphasises the primacy of formal liberal norms and values for the recognition of the ‘other’ and the articulation of peaceful societal interactions.

Forgetting democratization? Recasting power and authority in a plural Muslim world

Over the last few years, the international community has focused much of its attention on political developments in the Muslim world. In particular, the issue of the absence of democracy in much of the area has been at the centre of both academic and policyorientated debate. After the end of the Cold War, many believed that authoritarian regimes worldwide would quickly disappear to be replaced by western-style liberal democracies and, indeed, this trend seemed to hold true for some time. The successful processes of democratization in Eastern Europe and Latin America justified this early enthusiasm and contrary to popular belief, the Muslim world itself has not been immune from this greater push for democratization. Regimes across the Muslim world have had to contend with liberalizing and democratizing pressures coming both from within and from without. This is confirmed by the fact that even before Eastern European countries decisively moved towards greater democratization, Tunisia and Algeria were already experimenting with democratic reforms. In spite of these encouraging early trends, results in terms of actually successful democratic transitions have been largely disappointing and very few countries in the

Political Islam in the Mediterranean: the view from democratization studies

Contemporary perceptions of, and responses to, the growth of political Islam on the southern shores of the Mediterranean are still heavily influenced by traditional orientalist views on ‘Islam’ and by realist notions of regional security. This situation contributes to the formation of predominantly state-centric responses to what is perceived to be a monolithic Islamist threat. The issues of democratization and democracy promotion are downplayed in the face of security concerns. When addressed, liberal-inspired views of democracy and civil society are nonetheless problematically deployed in a social and political context that does not duplicate well the conditions met in previous ‘waves’ of successful democratization elsewhere. The prospects for democratization are linked to a situation where moderate Islamist movements are expected to endorse liberal-democratic values – albeit reluctantly and by default – and where state-imposed constraints on political liberalization can only slow down the process of implementation of electoral democracy. Far too little attention is paid to the alternative forms of participation that are devised locally by Islamists, as well as to the relevance of standard electoral processes in the context of refined authoritarian systems.

Introduction: Strategies for Regional Cooperation in the Mediterranean: Rethinking the Parameters of the Debate

This account maps out the key discourses and policies that shape the response of regional political actors to the ‘new terrorism’ associated with radical Islamist groups after 9/11. It details the dominant representations of international security before and after 9/11 in relation to an elusive notion of security community in the Mediterranean. In particular it stresses the dilemmas of securitization at the regional level in a context where the state system remains the dominant frame of reference for conceiving and organizing cooperation. Finally it highlights how the discourse on the ‘new terrorism’ creates a superficial agreement between states north and south of the Mediterranean but largely fails to recognize the different security dilemmas experienced by each state and does not meaningfully capture the dynamics of national and global jihadism.

Revisiting Theories of Arab Politics in the Aftermath of the Arab Uprisings

‘The following series of short analyses seeks to engage critically with the issue of how to think about Arab politics after the Arab uprisings in the light of past debates on this theme. What are we to make today of previous approaches to the region that emphasized historical sociology, Arabism, regionalism, Islamism, revolution and (post-)democratization? We reflect on (i) how ‘classic debates’ have been impacted, (ii) how important or useful these debates still remain today, and (iii) how we then should proceed.

Framing Political Revolutions in the Aftermath of the Arab Uprisings

What was revolutionary in the wave of revolutionary regime changes that began to sweep the Middle East and North Africa in 2011 was not a particular set of political ideas but a set of social practices. The unexpected popular uprisings that changed the very notion of effective political behaviour in the region introduced a new perspective on political revolutions and regime stability that still remains to be fully appreciated in contemporary theoretical perspectives on revolutions and Arab politics.